The PGA Championship has often been a gateway for true sleepers to break through in a major championship. That's not unanimously the case as the last three winners have had odds of 20-1 or lower. At the same time, we've also seen Phil Mickelson in his 50s (250-1) and Jmmy Walker (125-1) shock the world as dark horse winners at the PGA Championship. So as we head to Quail Hollow in 2025, we have to dig deep and at least express some interest in some dark horse picks for the week.
Full disclosure, I'm big on two of the heaviest favorites this week, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. Thus, sleepers aren't necessarily where I'm investing the most. And I've also already covered one of my other dark horse picks as a longshot flier both with the SI Golf betting panel and in my FanSided picks with Min Woo Lee at 90-1. But we have more longshots who have piqued my interest as well.
Whether it's based on form, course history, a gut feeling, or a combination of those, we're calling out shots with these sleepers. We'll have 0.1 units on all of these outright, but also 0.9 units on Top 40 plays as well, except for our top dark horse pick, who we already have some exposure with in the placement market.
Golf betting record in 2025: 16-62-0, +36.935 Units (+1.0 Units at Truist) | One and Done Total for 2025: $10,705,651 (Corey Conners at Truist, $440,00)
Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 0.1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
5. Niklas Norgaard (+30000, FanDuel)
It's certainly been a mixed bag for Niklas Norgaard this year as he's ventured onto the PGA Tour. He reeled off three Top 35 finishes after missing the cut at Farmers but then missed his next four cuts. But in the two events leading up to the PGA Championship, he's gone T33 at the Byron Nelson and then T5 at Myrtle Beach.
What's intriguing about the Danish pro, however, is that he's a massive hitter off the tee. We know Quail Hollow will reward that and he offers plenty of opportunity to take advantage of it if he can find anything on approach or with a shaky short game. It's the longest shot we have but I can't ignore the advantage his driving distance should give him this week, even in a major. At +225 for just a Top 40, we'll take our swings here.
4. Akshay Bhatia (+15000, FanDuel)
Admittedly, we haven't seen the good version of Akshay Bhatia since his T3 at THE PLAYERS. That's also why we're getting some value here and there are some things to really be intrigued by with how he fits at Quail Hollow. While he hasn't played well at the now-Truist Championship, he has performed well at Torrey Pines and Riviera, which are solid comps for what the PGA Championship could look like this week, in addition to being solid overall on longer golf courses.
Beyond that, though he doesn't fit the bomber profile, he's 13th in this field on SG: Approach on shots from 200-225 yards out, which is where he'll likely be playing from. While the form has been shaky as of late, I still like the upside for the lefty at this venue, particularly with a +125 bet for him to finish Top 40.
3. Keith Mitchell (+13000, DraftKings)
The narrative around Keith Mitchell has certainly been that he's been racking up first-round leads and fading. It's happened time and again throughout the 2025 season on the PGA Tour, including even last week's Truist Championship. At a certain point, though, that has to break his way a little more than it has, right? And at a place like Quail Hollow, that might make some sense for Mitchell to get it done there.
Mitchell is sixth in weighted SG: Off-the-Tee and 26th in weighted SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds while also being 15th in driving distance over that span. Given his style of ball-striking, it's no shock that he finished T8 at Quail Hollow in 2019 and then T3 in 2021. He's had success here. While there's reason to question his ability to close, getting +115 for a Top 40 does make some sense.
2. Justin Rose (+11000, FanDuel)
Did we just collectively forget that Justin Rose was in a playoff at The Masters and runner-up at The Open last summer? I know he withdrew from Truist last week but, overall, the numbers still show a player who is performing well and has been elevating his game in major championships. So why not the PGA Championship, especially at Quail Hollow where he has three Top 5 finishes in his last five starts at this venue.
This is definitely a gut feeling with some data, notably that Rose is 23rd in the field in weighted SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. However, Rose has simply been ham-and-egging it however possible to get into contention in these big events, and this is a time to do that again at a venue he's enjoyed success at previously. Furthermore, also at +115 for a Top 40, I love for him to be able at least finish respectably if there is any type of injury to be concerned about.
1. Patrick Reed (+9000, DraftKings)
There's no dark horse I like more this week than Patrick Reed. We've already got a wager out on him to finish Top 20 this week at the PGA Championship but we have to also sprinkle on the LIV Golf star to win. For starters, he was runner-up the last time this major was at Quail Hollow, but his track record overall in Charlotte has been stellar with a solo eight, T28 and T6 in his three starts there since the last PGA at the course.
Beyond that, Reed has consistently been playing well on LIV and was solo third at The Masters. Throughout his career and on whatever tour, Reed having familiarity and great history at a course has long been an indicator of future success. While so much of the LIV conversation is seemingly centered on Bryson and Rahm this week, Reed could very well come up and take that spotlight from them.