Nobody saw this coming: In the wake of DeMarcus Lawrence leaving the Dallas Cowboys for the Seattle Seahawks in his NFL free agency, he threw a jab at America's Team on the way out. Lawrence spent his entire NFL career in Dallas, never once coming close to the Super Bowl. Dallas was a buzzsaw in the 1990s, but this team has not been to an NFC Championship game since 1995-96.
The dysfunction reached a crescendo over the past couple of years, which may have played a part in the response when Lawrence spoke to Brian Nemhauser, better known as Hawk Blogger.
"A change in scenery is always good, but Dallas is my home. I made my home there, my family lives there, I'm forever going to be there. But I know for sure I'm not going to win a Super Bowl there, so yeah. We here."
Lawrence's former Cowboys teammate Micah Parsons may have taken umbrage with this remark, but Dallas has only +6000 odds of winning the Super Bowl. For what it is worth, Seattle is another underdog of sorts to win it at +4600. Seattle has been to and won Super Bowls more recently than Dallas, but I would not be wagering my paycheck on them as a dark horse. Who are the contenders?
Per to FanDuel Sportsbook, these teams have better than +2000 odds of winning the Super Bowl.
- Philadelphia Eagles: +650
- Baltimore Ravens: +700
- Kansas City Chiefs: +700
- Buffalo Bills: +750
- Detroit Lions: +900
- San Francisco 49ers: +1600
- Washington Commanders: +1700
- Cincinnati Bengals: +1700
So for that reason, I am not going to include any of those eight teams under the category of dark horses because none of them really are in the eyes of the bettor. Of the eight teams listed above, I like Philadelphia, Buffalo, Detroit and Washington more so than I do Baltimore, San Francisco and Cincinnati. The Kansas City Chiefs are inevitable, so I would be a fool to cross them off entirely this fall.
As for other dark horses I like more to win the Super Bowl more than the Seahawks, here is who I got.
5. Atlanta Falcons: +5000
This might be me being a bit of a homer, but this is the kind of year where the Atlanta Falcons come out of nowhere and surprise everyone. They were mediocre in 1997 and again in 2015 before winning the NFC the following years. No, I am not counting on it, but they have plenty of great weapons on offense and emerging star at quarterback in Michael Penix Jr.
What about that defense? Well, that is a big reason why the Dirty Birds only have +5000 odds of winning the Super Bowl. They do play in a challenging NFC, but they also play in the most winnable division in the league in the lackluster NFC South. Atlanta should have made the playoffs last year, but collapsed on itself down the stretch. This is a bit of a reach, but Atlanta offers more firepower offensively than Seattle does.
I would not be shocked if Atlanta and Seattle either made the playoffs or fired their head coaches in 2026.
4. Minnesota Vikings: +4200
I am not a big fan of J.J. McCarthy, but I love Kevin O'Connell as an NFL head coach. While I go back and forth on if Kwesi Adofo-Mensah actually knows what he is doing as a general manager, I would be foolish to cross the Minnesota Vikings off from Super Bowl contention next year. They only have +4200 odds right now, mostly because we have so much uncertainty surrounding McCarthy this year.
Should he be good, then that is good news for the Vikings and bad news for the rest of the NFL. The Chicago Bears could be on the uptick, but we have to wonder how much staying power the Detroit Lions or Green Bay Packers will have at the top of the division. In a way, I like the Vikings' runway the best of the four teams. In short, I trust them to land the plane much more than Chicago entering this football season.
I think swapping out Sam Darnold and inserting McCarthy could be more or less a lateral move.
3. Houston Texans: +3500
While I understand that the optics of trading Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders is anything but great, the Houston Texans still have one of the most navigable paths to the Super Bowl. They still have C.J Stroud under center and DeMeco Ryans as head coach, as well as being the best team in the worst division in the conference. Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee all look up at them.
So even if the Texans only have +3500 odds of winning the Super Bowl, I feel more inclined to take that than the Cowboys and Seahawks at their current marks. My only real concern for the Texans is they seem to have hit a glass ceiling as a franchise. To date, they are the only team to never appear in their conference's title bout. Not only do they have to get there, but they would also have to win more two more.
Houston may be somewhat of a Super Bowl dark horse, but I love their path out of the AFC South.
2. Los Angeles Rams: +2300
Even though I have been critical of the Los Angeles Rams' trajectory going forward, they still have this season. Matthew Stafford is back, so they might as well put forth their equivalent of the 1997-98 Chicago Bulls' Last Dance run with Michael Jordan. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. What I am getting at is Los Angeles has one more year to hold off teams like Arizona from overtaking them.
At +2300, the Rams are just outside of the top eight in terms of Super Bowl odds. Even if I am skeptical on the franchise's overall viability long-term, I like them over Cincinnati and San Francisco listed above them. Even if much of the 2021 team that won the Super Bowl is gone, it is not that far of a distant memory for the organization to conceivably pull it off.
I may like Arizona to win the NFC West this year, but I think Los Angeles could still be a playoff team.
1. Los Angeles Chargers: +3100
Last but not least, are you ready for Jim Harbaugh to take the Los Angeles Chargers to Disneyland? This will come right after a quick pitstop to the nearest P.F. Chang's, but you catch the drift, right? Harbaugh has won everywhere he has coached before. College, pro, it does not matter. What does is the Chargers finally getting the most out of Justin Herbert's awesome talent. Is it going to happen?
The Bolts have +3100 odds of winning the Super Bowl, which seems fair. While they have a tough path, there is a chance that we have seen the best of the Chiefs already. If that is the case, then it would come down to either the Chargers or the Denver Broncos ascending to the throne in the AFC West. The Las Vegas Raiders are still not ready to compete on any of their levels just yet. Are the Chargers ready?
If the Chargers are ever going to win a Super Bowl, it will probably be with Harbaugh at the helm.