The NBA Finals are little more than a day away, so you’ve likely seen plenty of previews talking about things like pace, turnovers and X-factors by now, but you might still have questions that won’t be answered until this series actually begins. I know I do. Here are a few.
1. Will Tyrese Haliburton’s jump pass become a storyline?
NBA Twitter and Pacers documentarians have been aware of Haliburton’s affinity for the jump pass for years, but this is a new stage that captures the casuals, and I wonder if the league and media apparatus will take this opportunity to introduce Haliburton’s eccentricities to the viewing public.
Over the years, Haliburton has turned the jump pass from a no-no to a weapon. He’s done for the jump pass what Patrick Mahomes has done for the across-the-field throw. Like Mahomes, it often leads to highlights.
But it’s more than creative flair. Haliburton’s jump pass is an act of disguise and misdirection. Usually, when a player jumps, the opponent thinks he’s going to shoot it (see: shot, jump). Haliburton uses this to his advantage. For instance, here you can see Haliburton leave his feet while in the paint. Typically, a player would either shoot the runner or dump it off to his rolling big. Josh Hart leaves Andrew Nembhard to crash the paint, and Haliburton finds his teammate for a wide-open three.
That’s disguise. Here’s misdirection. Haliburton comes off a pair of staggered screens (this is one of Indiana’s favorite sets, named “77”) and veers left before making a dramatic stop and jump pass to Aaron Nesmith who pops open for a three. The entire Knicks defense follows Haliburton and is caught flat-footed before this sudden ball reversal that could only be done with the jump pass.
Why do I bring this up now? Because the Oklahoma City Thunder defense is a monster that sustains its appetite with opponent turnovers. They track, anticipate and pounce on every opportunity. The danger of the jump pass is that, once a player leaves his feet, he has to get rid of the ball. If Haliburton jumps and a Thunder player is in his passing lane, it will be trouble. But will the Thunder defenders anticipate these actions, or will they be led astray like so many Eastern Conference defenses? Only time will tell.
2. Will Andrew Nembhard be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s primary defender?
Yes, at least from the jump. That’s been the way Pacers coach Rick Carlisle has gone over the last few regular-season meetings. But Nembhard has not fared well in those matchups. In their last game in March, Nembhard fouled Gilgeous-Alexander four times en route to 33 points.
Nembhard is a good defender but Gilgeous-Alexander is too big, too slithery, too skilled. Nembhard usually has a size advantage on his assignment but not against SGA, who uses his strength to bump and burrow his way to his spots.
I wonder if Carlisle might surprise us and go with the bigger Nesmith on Gilgeous-Alexander. That would leave Nembhard to fend off Jalen Williams – another mismatch – but the Pacers could opt to try to take away the head of the snake and deal with the rest later. There are no great options here.
3. Will the officials allow more physicality?
If so, that benefits the Pacers, who are more foul-prone than the Thunder. Especially Nembhard and Nesmith, who will be Gilgeous-Alexander’s primary defenders.
4. How many minutes does Isaiah Hartenstein play?
There are no obvious weak links in Oklahoma City’s defense. No obvious place for Haliburton to target. It’ll be interesting, then, to see who the Pacers try to attack when on offense.
My guess is that they go after Oklahoma City’s bigs. Drag Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren into pick-and-rolls and attack them in space. Both are more than capable of holding their own but again, no great options. This is the best one. The threat of Myles Turner shooting could drag the Thunder’s centers further away from the basket and open up cutting lanes for the Pacers.
If this works for the Pacers, ace. But then again, the Thunder can just take Hartenstein off the floor and go “small” with Holmgren and Williams in the frontcourt, and put one more awesome perimeter defender out there to contend with.
5. Will this series be more competitive than people think?
The Thunder are heavy favorites and for good reason. They won 68 regular-season games, blew the doors off their Western Conference finals foe, have a historic net rating and have seemingly gotten better as the playoffs have gone on. They also have the MVP on a fully-flush roster built by the NBA’s executive of the year. This is a juggernaut.
But for all the talk about the Thunder’s advantages, the Pacers have a couple of things they can lean on.
For one, no team gives up more corner threes than the Thunder, and the Pacers are shooting a league-best 47% from the corners in the playoffs.
The Thunder also tend to get stuck in mud in the halfcourt on offense, while the Pacers have the league’s best halfcourt offense. In the moments when the series slows down, that favors the Pacers.
Haliburton is the league’s best protector of the basketball against a team that needs turnovers to survive, and Turner and Pascal Siakam present some interesting matchup tests for Oklahoma City’s frontcourt.
I’m picking the Thunder, but I’m rooting for a closer series than most predict. The Pacers have made a habit of surprising people as underdogs. Will they do it again?
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NBA news roundup
- The Knicks fired coach Tom Thibodeau after their deepest playoff run in 25 years. Not good enough, I guess, for a team with championship aspirations. Michael Malone, Mike Budenholzer, and Frank Vogel have all won championships over the last half-decade and are obvious candidates for the job. Or maybe Jay Wright, who won NCAA titles with Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges at Villanova, could be the final piece.
- According to the Toronto Star, there is mutual interest between the Raptors and Giannis Antetokounmpo. It’s rumor season!
- James Harden is expected to decline his $36.3 million player option for next season and sign a longer-term deal with the Clippers that aligns with Kawhi Leonard, who is under contract through the 2026-27 season, according to HoopsHype.
Indiana’s secret weapons
Don’t look now, but the Pacers are the big market team in these NBA Finals. Indiana isn’t a sprawling city like New York, Chicago or Los Angeles, and doesn’t have the celebrity juice of a Madison Square Garden, but it has a rich athletic history that the Pacers should tap into to provide some good juju during this series. Here are a few greats who should be invited to sit front row at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
- Peyton Manning: Won a Super Bowl with the Indianapolis Colts and is among the most beloved athletes in Indiana’s history.
- Larry Bird: The Hick From French Lick is an Indiana legend and knows a thing or two about winning NBA championships.
- Jeff Gordon: Nothing says Indianapolis quite like NASCAR.
- Reggie Miller: He’s been a rabbit’s foot for the Pacers so far.
- Caitlin Clark: Could the Pacers convince the Fever to give her more time for her quad injury to heal so that she can sit courtside for Games 3 and 4? It’s early in the season, don’t risk it!