It’s one down, 23 to go in the 2025 Formula 1 season after odds-on favorite Lando Norris took the victory in the Australian Grand Prix. We were a sudden jolt of rain from an easy McLaren 1-2; instead, we had Norris getting hunted down at the end by Max Verstappen, but to no avail.
The drivers dive right back in next weekend at the Shanghai circuit in China. But thanks to the rain, we still have a ton of questions to go along with some answers we got in Melbourne.
Are we in for a new kind of dominance? Can we expect more safety cars than any season in recent history? Here are my takeaways from the Australian Grand Prix.
Wet weather chaos = let's pump the brakes on being 100-percent sure on the grid’s pecking order
Rain races give us quite a show, and despite about half of the Melbourne race being a tire preservation effort with little overtaking, the second half was all about making the right choice at the right time and keeping the car on the track.
And credit to the drivers who did just that, especially on this street course that features brutal painted lines to deal with. But in the end, while we can guess at the order that we can expect in the early season, I’m not willing to feel too confident in it until we get some dry running in.
Credit to Nico Hulkenberg literally giving Sauber more points in one race than the team did all of last year, but I don’t think that’ll be a common showing. Same from Lance Stroll, who posted 33 percent of his 2024 point total just on Sunday. I also think Ferrari has more to show. But despite all of that, I think there’s one clear determination we can make …
McLaren seems to have a big early advantage that teams will need to catch fast
For the early portion of the race, it was a tight 1-2-3 battle with Norris-Verstappen-Oscar Piastri. But once Verstappen made an error, the papaya car was GONE, to the tune of a 15-second gap between Piastri in second back to Verstappen at around halfway.
I don’t think McLaren has this much of a pace advantage over Verstappen, as evidenced by the Red Bull being in DRS range to go for the win at the end, but it seems to be another case of the Dutch driver outpacing the car.
Zak Brown’s McLaren team not only holds the speed advantage, but it looks like Red Bull will be going into any fight with them 2-v-1. Just as Red Bull still had dominant speed this time last year, McLaren (and Norris) can build a big gap in the championships now that will be insurmountable later if anyone can go up against them.
Give the rookies time to adjust, but this could be a season with lots of repairs
Again, let’s not talk down on the pure skills required to negotiate a race like Sunday’s. But let’s also not mince words: This is a rookie field with a lot of drivers on the back foot.
Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli was the only rookie to get points in fourth, and he was lucky to spin, make no wall contact and lose only place, which he regained moments later. Safety cars then brought him back into the fold – still a great effort, but a situation improved by circumstance.
It all goes off the deep end from there. Ollie Bearman was the only other rookie to even finish, which is at least something for him to take home after crashing twice in practice and not even being able to qualify. But he also was the slowest car on track all day long. Bortoleto was a victim of the late rain, Doohan (already on the hot seat before he even started) crashed on lap one and Isack Hadjar didn’t even make it to the grid in a soul-crushing exit.
The rookies might not have to negotiate worse conditions this season, but they will have to feel the pressure of producing results come down on them even harder each week. I also didn’t mention one rookie in particular…
It’s already looking bleak for Liam Lawson
I hate to make big, sweeping generalizations after one race, but, man … it does not look good for Liam Lawson, does it?
The “theory” that Verstappen is the only one who can deal with that Red Bull continues to hold weight. Lawson was nowhere in qualifying, made very little progress on the road in the race, and then crashed out later on.
Although Verstappen was the only car in the Red Bull camp to put points on the board, Yuki Tsunoda put the Racing Bull into Q3 and looked impressive before the race didn’t shake out his way. Not saying Lawson is some championship-winning level talent yet, but if we’re going down this road again … who can go against Verstappen and measure up while the car is being made around the four-time champ?
The best of the rest case is intriguing, but one team stands out
There are some intriguing team battles that have not developed enough yet to truly understand where they are, but after one race, do we already have a very clear “best of the rest” favorite?
McLaren stands tall, and Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes fall in very obviously for the 2-3-4 fight. But fifth place has a lot of folds to that storyline.
Haas seems to be too slow to have a chance. I’m not going to count Sauber out after posting six points in the opener and having a pretty talented lineup, but I don’t expect them in the battle.
Alpine is still a question mark after Pierre Gasly posted no points and Doohan doesn’t feel like someone who can bring home big points.
Racing Bulls could pose a threat if Hadjar rises above a tough start, but having enough pace each week is not something the Red Bull B team tends to do. And Aston Martin looked rough coming into race day; while it was a good start for him, I’m not sure how many more top-six finishes we’ll see from Lance Stroll this year.
So who does that leave? Williams. The only fully proven driver lineup outside of the top four looked very strong in qualifying, Albon held his own all day, and Sainz’s exit may have been more technical than driver, according to his comments after exiting the car.
Even if other teams make strides, having an Albon-Sainz lineup will help the once-champs rise above some of the inexperience of the teams they’re fighting against.