Champ Week is underway and the push is on for teams firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble to make enough noise to lock up an at-large bid to March Madness. While bubble teams will be keeping one eye on scoreboards hoping bid thieves don't shrink the bubble like they did last year, the easiest way to feel good about their chances is to make enough of a statement in their conference tournaments to force their way into the Field of 68.
It is tough to tell how much weight the selection committee will put on conference tournaments in a given year as we have plenty of historical examples of teams looking like they did enough to get in the field only to get left out in the cold on Selection Sunday. While playing quality teams at a neutral site is often a good recipe for Quad 1 wins, one week of strong work has to be really good to enhance a resume that wasn't strong enough for inclusion in the field on its own merits.
Which teams need to do the most work in their conference tournaments to go dancing? Let's take a look at five bubble squads who have the best chance to snag a bid if they go deep into Champ Week.
5 Teams That Need Deep Conference Tournament Runs To Go Dancing
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels are one of the ACC's most talented teams and pass the eye test if you watch their games, but they are squarely on the bubble due to a lack of good results. While the NET has the Tar Heels as the nation's 40th-best team, ahead of teams on safer ground like Vanderbilt and West Virginia, a 1-11 mark in Quad 1 games is a black eye that will be tough to overcome in the eyes of the committee.
The one Quad 1 win that North Carolina picked up came in December, when they beat UCLA by a bucket at Madison Square Garden. The Tar Heels did schedule incredibly hard, losing twice to Duke and falling in non-conference clashes against Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, and Florida, but a tournament-worthy team needs to find a way to deliver a result in at least one game of consequence to go to the dance.
The ACC Tournament draw did the Tar Heels no favors as they start out with Notre Dame before a date with fellow bubbler Wake Forest. Winning both of those games would likely earn North Carolina a third shot at Duke, which they would need to win to make a case as a 23-win ACC team with two Quad 1 wins if they lose in the final. If UNC gets that far, however, they'd be better off just taking fate into their own hands and winning the auto bid rather than leaving anything to chance.
2. Texas Longhorns
The meat-grinder that is the SEC was going to claim a tournament-worthy team as a victim and it looks like Texas is the league's sacrificial lamb. Despite looking like a safe tournament entrant in January, the Longhorns limped down the stretch with eight losses in their final 11 games, including a brutal 15-point defeat at South Carolina.
As a result, Texas finished regular season play with a 6-12 mark in SEC play and 14 overall losses. That performance should have them outside the field as of now, but some good SEC wins (against Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky and at Mississippi State) show that their is potential here for Rodney Terry's group to make a run.
All but one of those quality wins came at home, so Texas wil need to showcase their ability to beat good competition on a neutral floor at the SEC Tournament this week. The Longhorns' chalk path through the bracket features Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Tennessee as their first three matchups with potential showdowns against Auburn in the semifinals and either Florida or Alabama in the final. Winning three games would give Texas another three Quad 1 wins and 20 overall victories, giving them a compelling at-large argument.
3. Dayton Flyers
The A-10 has become more of a one-bid league over the past decade but Dayton put themselves back on the bubble map with a big win at VCU to end the regular season. The Flyers were the preseason favorites in the A-10, but some early struggles in league play led to bad losses against UMASS and George Washington that have dinged the Flyers' resume.
The potential is certainly there for Dayton, which made a strong showcase at the Maui Invitational with close losses to North Carolina and Iowa State before beating UCONN by 18. Adding a victory against Marquette to the road VCU win has given the Flyers three Quad 1 victories, which is more than a few teams on the bubble (see North Carolina, Xavier) possess.
The path for the Flyers here would be to get to the A-10 Tournament final, where they should have another matchup with VCU, setting them up to be at worst a 24-10 entrant with a highly competitive result against a tournament-bound Rams team. Getting that far and losing would give them a shot, but like we mentioned with the Tar Heels above, at that point it would be better to eliminate all risk and win the auto bid for themselves.
4. Wake Forest
The ACC's other shot at a fourth bid to the dance involves Wake Forest, which looked like it would end up on the right side of the bubble after a convincing win over fellow bubbler SMU in late February. Things fell apart for the Demon Deacons after that as they dropped three of their final five games, adding a pair of Quad 3 losses (at NC State and vs. Virginia) before getting blown out at Duke.
Wake Forest did end the regular season with 21 wins and earned the four-seed in the ACC Tournament thanks to head-to-head tiebreakers, which should set them up well to add to their collection of two Quad 1 wins (against North Carolina and a big one over Michigan in non-conference play). A rematch with the Tar Heels is likely awaiting the Demon Deacons on Thursday, and if they could win that game they would have another crack at Duke, the best Quad 1 opportunity the ACC has to offer.
Winning both of those games would offset Wake's Quad 3 losses and have them in a position to either earn the auto bid or sit at 4-8 in Quad 1 games entering Selection Sunday. Given how weak the bubble is, the Demon Deacons would have an argument, especially if they can take down Duke.
5. Boise State
The Mountain West likely won't get six bids to the NCAA Tournament again, like they did last season, but they are in a good spot to land at least three with New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State appearing safe entering the conference tournament. A fourth bid would likely come down to either Boise State or Colorado State, with the Broncos being better situated to secure an at-large.
Boise State can pair home wins over New Mexico and Utah State with a 13-point victory over Clemson from November that has aged incredibly well, but losses to Boston College and Washington State were missed opportunities for the Broncos. The good news is that Boise State is sitting as the 5-seed in the Mountain West Tournament, offering them three straight Quad 1 opportunities if the chalk holds.
The Broncos' first matchup comes against San Diego State with New Mexico likely awaiting in the semifinals. Winning both of those games would likely ensure a date in the final against either Utah State or Colorado State, which would have one less Quad 1 opportunity on the way to the final thanks to playing a 7-10 winner in the quarters. Getting to the final would likely do the trip for Boise State, although given the potential for bid thieves they would be well advised to just win the tournament at that point.