The college basketball regular season is winding down and there are precious few opportunities left for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble to improve their stock ahead of Selection Sunday. The bubble this year has been a remarkably weak one as teams that have been featured in FanSided's Bubble Watch have a ton of flaws that make you wonder how things will work if the NCAA does expand the tournament to 76 teams over the next few years.
One of the big debates revolves around the SEC, which is a historically strong conference with five teams (Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt) hanging around the bubble periphery. These teams have all played very hard schedules and some of them, notably Oklahoma and Texas, have reached double-digit losses in league play.
While it is hard to blame these teams for having a tough go in a historically great conference, it is fair to wonder at what point actually winning games has to matter for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. While the selection committee is told to ignore conference affiliation for purposes of at-large selection, there is a precedent to consider in the fact that the team with the worst conference record to snag an at-large bid was West Virginia in 2023, which was 19-15 overall and 7-11 in the Big 12.
With Oklahoma currently 4-12 in SEC play and Texas at 6-11 entering Wednesday's action, both would be outliers compared to historic selection trends from the committee. Time will tell whether the committee is willing to give a team like the Sooners the benefit of the doubt over a group like Xavier, which has 20 wins in a weaker Big East.
How does the bubble shake out just over 10 days away from Selection Sunday? Read on for the latest edition of Bubble Watch to see how things are shaking out for the teams closest to the cut line.
Note: All records, NET rankings and metrics are current through the conclusion of games on March 4. Strength of schedule figures (otherwise identified as SOS or NCSOS for non-conference strength of schedule) are from KenPom's rankings. Any teams currently leading their respective conferences are considered automatic qualifiers for the field and are not eligible for this edition of Bubble Watch.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes
Team | West Virginia | Georgia | Baylor | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big 12 | SEC | Big 12 | Big Ten |
Record | 18-12 (9-10) | 19-11 (7-10) | 18-12 (10-9) | 17-13 (9-10) |
NET | 48 | 32 | 31 | 36 |
Quad 1 Record | 6-10 | 4-10 | 6-10 | 6-10 |
Quad 2 Record | 4-2 | 4-1 | 3-2 | 3-3 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 8-0 | 11-0 | 8-0 | 8-0 |
SOS | 14 | 19 | 8 | 13 |
NCSOS | 134 | 319 | 32 | 89 |
Last Game | W 71-69 At Utah | W 73-64 At South Carolina | W 61-58 Vs. TCU | W 116-114 Vs. Nebraska |
Next Game | Vs. UCF 3/8 | Vs. Vanderbilt 3/8 | Vs. No. 3 Houston 3/8 | At Indiana 3/8 |
West Virginia avoided absolute disaster with a win by a bucket at Utah, which would have added a bad loss to a resume that has trended toward the bubble over the past few weeks. Things have stabilized for the Mountaineers, but they would be well advised to take care of business at home against UCF on Saturday.
Georgia is firmly trending up and racked up a third-straight win in SEC play by winning at South Carolina, moving themselves ahead of the Oklahoma/Texas/Arkansas trio in the bubble hierarchy. Saturday's home date with Vanderbilt is more important for Georgia as a win here would bring them to 20 on the season and have them in excellent shape ahead of the SEC Tournament.
This update marks the first time we've seen Baylor on this page, but it isn't to suggest that the Bears are in any real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Dropping five out of their past nine games, including bad losses at Colorado and Cincinnati, do mean that Scott Drew's team is a lot closer to First Four action than they would like to be.
Tuesday's shootout win over Nebraska was big for the Buckeyes, which gives them a leg up on the Cornhuskers for bubble purposes. The six Quad 1 wins are a big deceptive for Ohio State, whose top win came against Kentucky at Madison Square Garden back in December (albeit by 20), and having 13 losses makes Saturday's showdown with Indiana very important for their bubble standing entering the Big Ten Tournament.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In
Team | Boise State | Indiana | Xavier | Texas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Mountain West | Big Ten | Big East | SEC |
Record | 22-8 (14-5) | 18-12 (9-10) | 19-10 (11-7) | 17-13 (6-11) |
NET | 45 | 55 | 49 | 41 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-5 | 4-12 | 1-9 | 5-9 |
Quad 2 Record | 4-1 | 4-0 | 6-1 | 2-4 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 14-2 | 10-0 | 12-0 | 10-0 |
SOS | 21 | 24 | 59 | 25 |
NCSOS | 314 | 133 | 206 | 351 |
Last Game | W 80-57 At Air Force | L 73-64 At Oregon | W 83-61 Vs. Creighton | W 87-82 At No. 25 Mississippi State |
Next Game | Vs. Colorado State 3/7 | Vs. Ohio State 3/8 | At Butler 3/5 | Vs. Oklahoma 3/8 |
The Mountain West now has four teams in the projected field, thanks to a recent surge from Boise State, which has three Quad 1 wins and just blew out Air Force to avoid a bad loss. Friday's home date against Colorado State is tricky but given how close the Broncos are to the bubble, securing a win is a must.
The momentum that Indiana has built slowed a bit with a loss at Oregon, putting the Hoosiers back into the First Four mix at the moment. Recent strong wins have them in a good position but they can jump ahead of Ohio State by completing a season sweep at Assembly Hall on Saturday.
Even though it just counted as a Quad 2 win, Xavier's 22-point rout of Creighton is exactly the kind of result they needed to show that they can beat tournament-caliber competition. The Musketeers have to avoid two landmines this week (At Butler and then a home date with Providence) to shore up their position and reach the Big East Tournament with 21 wins.
Fewer teams needed a positive result more than Texas, whose five-point win at No. 25 Mississippi State on Tuesday night narrowly keeps them in the field. None of the Longhorns' losses are bad per se but there are simply too many of them to feel comfortable, making Saturday's opportunity to complete a season sweep of Oklahoma massive for their odds ahead of the SEC Tournament.
March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out
Team | Arkansas | Nebraska | Oklahoma | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | SEC | Big Ten | SEC | ACC |
Record | 18-12 (7-10) | 17-13 (7-12) | 17-12 (4-12) | 20-11 (13-6) |
NET | 39 | 57 | 50 | 38 |
Quad 1 Record | 5-9 | 5-10 | 4-10 | 1-10 |
Quad 2 Record | 2-3 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 8-2 | 9-1 | 14-1 |
SOS | 20 | 29 | 21 | 44 |
NCSOS | 257 | 250 | 314 | 7 |
Last Game | W 90-77 At Vanderbilt | L 116-114 At Ohio State | L 87-84 At Ole Miss | W 91-51 At Virginia Tech |
Next Game | Vs. No. 25 Mississippi State 3/8 | Vs. Iowa 3/9 | Vs. No. 15 Missouri 3/5 | Vs. No. 2 Duke 3/8 |
Getting drubbed at South Carolina by 19 really did serious damage to Arkansas but they reclaimed some of those losses by scoring a 13-point win at Vanderbilt on Tuesday night. Picking up a home win against No. 25 Mississippi State on Saturday would probably be enough to get the Razorbacks onto the right side of the cut line ahead of the SEC Tournament.
A four-game losing streak has been ill-timed for Nebraska, which has slid out of the field after falling by a bucket at Ohio State on Tuesday night. The Cornhuskers have 13 losses overall and are five below .500 in an average Big Ten, which makes their resume very suspect and necessitates snapping the skid with a home win against Iowa on Senior Day.
The whole winning games argument should matter for Oklahoma, which is eight below .500 in the SEC and has just two victories against tournament caliber teams since Christmas (a home win over Vanderbilt and last week's six-point home win over Mississippi State). Failing to win their last two games would be asking the Selection Committee to set a potentially harmful precedent of allowing a team that went 10 games below .500 in league play into the NCAA Tournament, so the Sooners have a lot of work to do between now and Selection Sunday.
North Carolina fans are likely howling right now that Xavier and its 1-9 Quad 1 record are in the field ahead of the Tar Heels' 1-10 Quad 1 mark and better scheduling metrics. Beating good opponents matters and North Carolina's best victories (by a bucket over UCLA at MSG in December and SMU at home) lag far behind the trio of good wins the X-men can offer up (at Marquette, UCONN and Creighton at home), so finding a way to topple No. 2 Duke on Senior Night would be the best way for the Tar Heels to change the narrative entering the ACC Tournament.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out
Team | Cincinnati | Santa Clara | Colorado State | San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big 12 | West Coast | Mountain West | West Coast |
Record | 17-12 (7-11) | 20-11 (12-6) | 21-9 (15-4) | 23-8 (13-5) |
NET | 42 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-10 | 2-5 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Quad 2 Record | 9-2 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 3-3 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 7-0 | 13-4 | 13-2 | 18-0 |
SOS | 43 | 91 | 92 | 102 |
NCSOS | 317 | 62 | 126 | 210 |
Last Game | L 73-64 At No. 4 Houston | W 97-66 At Pacific | W 83-56 Vs. San Jose State | L 95-75 Vs. Gonzaga |
Next Game | Vs. Kansas State 3/5 | WCC Tournament Quarterfinal 3/9 (Opponent TBD) | At Boise State 3/7 | WCC Tournament Quarterfinal 3/9 (Opponent TBD) |
With all due respect to the likes of Wake Forest, Villanova and SMU, they have had plenty of chances to demonstrate tournament potential and have either stacked up bad losses (see Wake dropping games to Virginia and NC State while Villanova has three losses outside the top two Quadrants) or failed to accomplish anything (SMU has 22 wins with 17 coming outside the top two quadrants and zero Quad 1 wins) meaningful, so they are bubble teams in name only that likely need their league's auto bids to go dancing.
Cincinnati has trended in the right direction and has nine victories in Quad 2, showing an ability to largely beat who they are supposed to while losing to teams better than them. Having victories over Xavier and Baylor helps but with two wins to end the regular season and a good showing in the Big 12 Tournament, the Bearcats have a shot to sneak in.
The WCC Tournament is coming up, which means there is a chance for the league to produce a third team if either San Francisco or Santa Clara can get to the final. Each team has a strong win total and some quality results on their ledger (San Francisco topped Boise State in non-conference while being the only team to beat Saint Mary's in WCC play; Santa Clara won at Gonzaga to go along with solid non-conference victories over Bradley and TCU) and the path to the final will involve beating one of Gonzaga or Saint Mary's, giving them an argument against power-conference teams that haven't accomplished much to date.
Colorado State's six-game winning streak is well-timed to push them into the bubble conversation and a win over Utah State goes nicely with an earlier victory against San Diego State. Friday night's trip to Boise State is critical for the Rams, who could use a big road win to set themselves up to make a run in the Mountain West Tournament and potentially steal the Broncos' spot in the field.