8 preseason AP Top 25 teams now in danger of missing March Madness entirely

March Madness is just over a month away, meaning projections for the upcoming field are becoming more clear and calculated with every game.

Throughout the season, many teams have emerged from low preseason expectations to now being considered among the nation's best, and others have gone in the opposite direction: high preseason expectations to having their NCAA Tournament hopes hanging by a thread with every game.

It happens to teams every year, especially since the preseason Top 25 is a complete projection of expectations when no one really knows how good each team is yet.

Here are some college basketball teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 that are now in danger of missing the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

AP Top 25

1. North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina might as well be this season's poster child for not living up to preseason expectations. After reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed in March, the Tar Heels entered the new season as the No. 9 team in the country. They began the year with a tough schedule, pulling out a tight win over Dayton and dropping competitive contests against good Auburn, Kansas, and Michigan State teams in November as well as a narrow loss to Alabama to begin December.

The Tar Heels have played six games against opponents that were ranked in the Top 25 at tip-off and one other against a currently ranked team that was unranked when they met. Unfortunately, close doesn't count, and they have been unable to win the big games to boost their resume -- posting an 0-6 record against Quad 1 teams.

Making matters worse, North Carolina has been severely underwhelming in ACC play, losing to teams it usually doesn't like Stanford, Wake Forest, and Pitt. The Tar Heels were also blown out by archrival Duke on Saturday, putting them at 6-5 in conference play and 13-10 overall.

There are also very few opportunities for North Carolina to boost its resume with its remaining schedule. Duke is the only top 25 team the Tar Heels will play this season and they only have three other games against teams with winning records (Pitt, Clemson, and Florida State).

Both ESPN and CBS Sports currently have the Tar Heels just outside the 68-team March Madness field.

2. Arkansas Razorbacks

John Calipari's debut season in Fayetteville was bound to make headlines in one way or another. Arkansas entered the year ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25 and had a good start to the year with an 11-2 non-conference record that included preseason No. 8 Baylor and then-No.14 Michigan.

However, the script flipped once the Razorbacks hit conference play. Arkansas lost its first five conference games in January. The first three were against top 25 opponents, but Arkansas was not competitive against Tennessee and could only come close against Florida and Ole Miss. The Razorbacks also suffered a horrible loss to LSU, the only SEC win for the Tigers this year, and to Oklahoma during a forgettable January that only saw one Arkansas victory.

Arkansas began February with a better start, upsetting No. 14 Kentucky inCalipari's return to Lexington. But did the January skid end Arkansas' postseason hopes? Experts seem to think so, as no one has the Razorbacks projected to make the tournament. They are hovering right between 45th and 50th in most key metrics and could use some big wins to re-join the hunt.

The next month will go a long way as Arkansas faces four top-15 squads and has two matchups against fellow SEC bubble team Texas. A couple wins in that stretch could put it in a good position entering March, but Arkansas is on the outside looking in right now.

3. Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana basketball has been ranked in the preseason just three times since 2016, and two of those have come in the last three years. The Hoosiers began the 2024-25 season ranked No. 17 but have not lived up to expectations, leading some fans to call for head coach Mike Woodson's job.

Many though Indiana could compete for a Big Ten title this year, but the team is heading for another double-digit-loss season with a current record of 14-9. Seven losses have come in Big Ten play, putting the Hoosiers in 11th place in the conference. They are also just 2-8 against Quad 1 teams and have no "good wins" but two "bad losses."

The Big Ten is a strong conference, but it's not that strong. So what does all this mean for Indiana?

According to the latest bracket projections, the Hoosiers need a miracle. Neither ESPN nor CBS has them anywhere close to the 68-team field. They do have four games remaining against Top 25 opponents, but the current situations implies they need to win all four to have a chance.

4. Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats are one of the teams that have fallen the farthest this season, beginning the year ranked No. 20 but now residing near the basement of the Big 12 standings with a 2-8 conference record and a 12-9 overall mark.

Cincinnati cruised through the early portions of its schedule with a 10-1 record, the lone blemish a loss to a mediocre Villanova team just before solid wins over Xavier and Dayton. However, while coming close at times, Cincinnati has not been able to grab a substantial conference win.

It has lost its three games played against the Big 12's ranked teams so far, and only has two more opportunities to pull off a critical upaset against either No. 8 Iowa State or No. 5 Houston. Even then, it probably won't be enough.

The Bearcats have fallen so far they aren't even on the bubble anymore and need an unlikely massive run over the next few weeks to get back into consideration.

5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Rutgers is in the same boat as Cincinnati. The Scarlet Knights had high expectations entering the season as the No. 25 team in the country. But the young team has struggled, and even superstar freshmen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper can't save it.

Despite playing Texas A&M and Alabama close early in the season, Rutgers just hasn't been able to put it together. In hindsight, an early loss to Kennesaw State should've been a red flag, especially with the implications it had for Big Ten Play.

Rutgers is now 4-7 in the Big Ten and 11-11 overall, tied for 12th in the conference and on the bubble for just the Big Ten Tournament, let alone the NCAA Tournament. The Scarlet Knights have dropped to somewhere in the 70s in most rating metrics and no longer appear in March Madness discussions.

Hanging in there

1. Texas Longhorns

Rodney Terry led the Longhorns to the Elite Eight a couple years ago, solidifying his hold on the head coaching job. However, things have not exactly gone as planned since. Texas lost 13 games last season and was bounced in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

This year, the Longhorns began as the No. 19 team in the preseason AP Top 25 and have fallen out of the rankings and firmly onto the postseason bubble. Texas is just 4-5 in SEC play and only has one win over a ranked team (Texas A&M on Jan. 25).

The remaining schedule features home games against No. 3 Alabama and No. 14 Kentucky as well as contests against fellow bubble teams that can make head-to-head decisions easier for the selection committee.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi has them projected as a No. 9-seed in his latest update but not projected as a "lock" or a team that is "likely to make the field" in his eyes. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports also has the Longhorns in the field as a No. 10 seed.

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs

By the mainstream metrics, Gonzaga has an excellent case to make the 68-team field for a 25th consecutive season. It is not the program that has dominated the West Coast Conference (WCC) for the last two-plus decades, but the team is once again in contention for the WCC regular season crown.

The Bulldogs rank 13th in the NET rankings and 11th in KenPom and ESPN's BPI. They are just 2-6 against current Quad 1 teams but have no bad losses and are 11-0 against Quads 3 and 4.

However, bracketology projections from the national experts indicate a level of uncertainty in Gonzaga's postseason fate, and that's likely because of their projected strength of schedule, which ESPN's BPI Index expects to finish as the 108th toughest schedule in the country.

It also doesn't help that Gonzaga's only win over a then-ranked opponent this season was against Indiana, mentioned above as another bubble team in even worse shape than the Zags. Nonetheless, experts project Gonzaga's streak to continue as a No. 9 or No. 10 seed. But a bad loss could change things quickly.

3. Baylor Bears

Baylor is another team that should be in reasonably good shape based on the metrics but cannot afford a bad loss. The Bears began the season as the nation's No. 8 team yet find themselves near the bubble in February.

The season started with a loss to Gonzaga and what should have been a good win over Arkansas, but as this article has implied, the strength of that victory is now severely diminished. Still, Baylor managed to get through its loaded non-conference schedule with just three losses, none considered "bad" at the time.

However, conference play has been a bit of a different story. Baylor was in pretty good shape a couple weeks ago, but a bad home loss to a struggling TCU team hurt its stock. Yet, the Bears responded with two straight wins and followed their next loss with an upset of then-No. 11 Kansas.

Baylor is currently a projected 8-or-9 seed, thanks to a strong schedule and its top-30 NET ranking. Upcoming opportunities against No. 5 Houston and No. 20 Arizona can streghten the Bears' case.