Few players, if any, entered the 2024 campaign with more hype than Jackson Holliday, MLB's No. 1 overall prospect according to most outlets. Holliday was called up for the first time to the majors in early April and had a chance to run away with the Baltimore Orioles' second base job but he struggled mightily to begin his MLB career, recording two hits in his first 34 at-bats and striking out 18 time in 36 plate appearances. Holliday was overmatched - there's no other way to describe how his first stint went.
With that in mind, the Orioles sent him down after appearing in just 10 games and didn't call him back up until July 31. Holliday got to play often down the stretch and did perform better in his second taste of big league action, but he had a .650 OPS in that span — still well below the league average.
There's no disputing that Holliday's rookie year was disappointing, but the Orioles should not and will not give up on him quickly. Holliday is going to get a chance to play a ton in 2025, and he is eager to take advantage of that opportunity as evidenced by one particularly lofty goal. Holliday would like to steal 20+ bases in 2025.
Jackson Holliday would like to steal 20+ bases for #Orioles in 2025.
— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) March 2, 2025
He knows he may have to dial back the aggressiveness a bit in regular season, though, and could do that in final few games of spring to be prepared to pick spots.
"I'm going to go until they tell me not to." https://t.co/O8zYVmCIOp
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Jackson Holliday has a lot to prove to meet his lofty 2025 goal
Holliday absolutely has the speed to steal far more than 20 bases in 2025. The 21-year-old stole four bases without being caught at the MLB level last season, and has 36 stolen bases in 218 minor league games. He ranked in the 95th percentile in sprint speed in 2024, according to Baseball Savant.
While Holliday undoubtedly has the speed to pull this off, getting on base enough to make this happen is where things get tricky. Holliday had a .255 OBP in the 60 MLB games he appeared in last season. Even in his second stint, he had a .285 OBP. If his OBP is that low again in 2025, chances are, he won't get on base or even play in enough games to steal the amount of bases he'd like to.
Of the 46 players who stole 20+ bases last year, only 10 of them had OBPs below .300. All 10 of those players have elite defensive reputations, and all 10 of those players had OBPs at least 20 points higher than Holliday's. The 21-year-old isn't a bad defender, but his glove isn't good enough to justify playing him regularly if he isn't going to reach base.
If Holliday hits remotely close to as well as he's supposed to, he might steal 30+ bases — he's that dynamic of a player. He is simply going to have to prove he can hit MLB pitching. Early spring training results have been promising, as Holliday has four hits in 12 at-bats and has stolen a pair of bases. Hopefully, he can carry this start into games that count and end the season among the American League leaders in stolen bases.