According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi's latest projections, the ACC has three teams in the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina, SMU and Wake Forest are not among that group, although a strong finish to the regular season and some wins in the ACC Tournament could move them into the field of 68.
North Carolina is currently one of Lunardi's First Four Out while SMU and Wake Forest are in the Next Four Out. In a conference that has three bids as of now from Duke, Clemson and Louisville, plus a lack of depth from top to bottom, that makes it even tougher to convince the selection committee.
The Tar Heels have strung together a four-game winning streak to build some much-needed momentum. Unfortunately, those four wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league standings (Syracuse, NC State, Virginia, Florida State).
North Carolina (18-11, 11-6 ACC) only has one Quad 1 win all season and has a NET ranking of 45. For a storied program that finished runner-up to Kansas in the 2021-22 season, this would mark the second time in the last three seasons the Tar Heels failed to reach the NCAA Tournament unless something changes down the stretch.
It has been a solid debut season in the ACC for the SMU Mustangs (21-7, 12-5 ACC). If you just look at the record, you would think SMU is tournament-bound and solidly in the field, but that isn't the case. Although the Mustangs have a NET ranking of 42, their weak schedule does them no favor whatsoever. SMU has only played five Quad 1 opponents and lost each game. With 15 games against Quad 3 and 4 competition and no signature wins on the resume, SMU may need to run the table in the ACC Tournament to hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
Wake Forest (19-9, 11-6 ACC) has two Quad 1 wins and five more against Quad 2 teams, but a poor NET ranking (71) has the Demon Deacons the lowest among the three ACC schools. A massive road test at No. 2 Duke awaits on March 3 for the Demon Deacons. If they can pull the upset against the Blue Devils and add another quality win to the resume, they would have as strong a case as any program on the bubble.
Could all three ACC programs miss the NCAA Tournament?
While SMU will likely have to rely on its performance in the ACC Tournament regardless due to a lack of quality opponents remaining on its schedule, North Carolina and Wake Forest each face Duke before the regular season concludes. That puts even more pressure on the teams to win those other games and avoid adding another bad loss to the resume.
Compared to fellow bubble teams like SEC programs Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Georgia, the road looks even more difficult if you consider the overall depth of the SEC. Due to the strength of the SEC, that means a higher likelihood of a loss, but ample opportunities to pick up another signature win, either in the regular season or SEC Tournament.
What each of the ACC bubble teams need is to take care of business by either defeating quality opponents or avoiding any bad losses and hope their are not many bid stealers during the conference tournaments. If any spots get taken ahead of them and the SEC bubble teams finish strong, it would be difficult to put either of the ACC schools in on resume alone.
With so much taking shape this time of year as teams prepare for tournament play, nothing is guaranteed. As North Carolina, SMU and Wake Forest live on the bubble for the next couple weeks, the opportunity is there for each of them to be dancing or on the outside looking in when all is said and done. Their performances to close out the regular season and in the ACC Tournament will go a long way in deciding their fate, however probable or unlikely their tournament hopes may seem at this point.