It was not that long ago that Arkansas' chances of being in the NCAA Tournament looked like an afterthought. The Razorbacks lost their first five conference games and six of seven to begin SEC play, John Calipari's first season in Fayetteville crumbling around him.
And then a much-anticipated return Lexington seemed to change everything. Since Calipari led Arkansas to an upset in Rupp on Feb. 1 over his former team, the Hogs have picked up an additional four wins. Including the win over Kentucky, Arkansas is 5-3 in its last eight games. Each of Arkansas' three losses during that span were by single digits to ranked opponents (Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn).
Arkansas (17-11, 6-9 SEC) is now ranked 40th in the NET rankings, with four Quad 1 wins on their resume. The Razorbacks took down SEC foe and fellow bubble team Texas on Wednesday night to complete the season sweep of the Longhorns; even more impressive, the win over Texas came with the team's leading scorer, Adou Thiero, sidelined with a hyperextended left knee.
Despite Thiero's absence and a career-high 39 points from Texas freshman Tre Johnson, Arkansas prevailed, adding another quality February win to go along with the ranked wins over Kentucky and Missouri.
Arkansas, without Adou Thiero, overcomes 39 (!) points from Tre Johnson to pick up the enormous bubble battle win over Texas. Both teams were right on that Last Four In line, but the Razorbacks come out of February with a sweep of the Longhorns and wins over Kentucky & Missouri.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) February 27, 2025
While the Kentucky and Missouri wins strengthen Arkansas' resume tremendously, sweeping a Texas team that came into the night as one of ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi's Last Four Byes creates some separation between the two SEC programs as they battle to make it to the Big Dance. More than likely, the teams would swap positioning now, with Texas dropping to the Last Four In and Arkansas moving up to the Last Four Byes (and avoiding the First Four in Dayton).
Arkansas' recent surge certainly helps, but does not guarantee anything yet
With back-to-back wins over a ranked Missouri team and Texas, Arkansas has definitely improved its standing on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Six conference wins may seem less than ideal, but the SEC is the most complete conference from top to bottom in the country; the closest thing you can find to a bad loss in conference play is at LSU back in mid-January. The SEC gauntlet also gives Arkansas more opportunities at quality opponents than most teams on the bubble, and they're beginning to take advantage.
If you look at Lunardi's Last Four In and First Four Out teams, specifically, Arkansas' NET ranking is better than each of them; only Oklahoma (five) and Nebraska (five) have more Quad 1 wins than the Razorbacks. Something Arkansas has done an exceptional job of is taking care of business against Quad 3 and 4 opponents: The Razorbacks are 11-0 in those games, which should bode well as the selection committee compares resumes and selects the field of 68 in just over two weeks.
As Arkansas prepares for its final three games against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and No. 24 Mississippi State, it will need to avoid a hiccup against a Gamecocks team that is last in the SEC with a 1-14 conference record. Win at least that game, and potentially win at least one game in the upcoming SEC Tournament, and Calipari and the Razorbacks should be dancing in March. As of now, this is most likely an NCAA Tournament team that has the potential to surprise, one that's found a new identity since the injury to star freshman guard Boogie Fland.