ACC Championship Game scenarios for Week 14: What happens if Miami loses to Syracuse?

Across the country, we have a handful of college football teams who have already punched tickets to their conference championship games. Army will play Tulane for the AAC. Boise State will play for the Mountain West. Georgia is playing for an SEC title. Jacksonville State is up for a CUSA Championship. Oregon is playing for the Big Ten. And SMU will be awaiting its opponent in the ACC Championship.

The Mustangs punched their ticket to the ACC title bout with a win over Virginia last week. They are 10-1 on the season, but 7-0 in ACC play. Their only loss was to Big 12 contender BYU by three points very early in the season. All signs point to the Ponies playing either the Miami Hurricanes or the Clemson Tigers for the ACC Championship. SMU has Cal left, while Miami has Syracuse in ACC play.

To put it as simply as possible, here is what need to happen for Miami or Clemson to get to Charlotte.

ACC Championship Game scenarios for Miami and Clemson in Week 14

• Miami Hurricanes: Win over Syracuse
• Clemson Tigers: Miami loss to Syracuse

This is because Clemson has completed its ACC slate of games. The 9-2 Tigers finished league play at 7-1 with their only loss being to Louisville, a team Miami beat. Clemson finishes the regular season by taking on in-state rival South Carolina in the Palmetto Bowl. A loss to the Gamecocks will not knock them out of the ACC title race, or out of the College Football Playoff race, should Miami falter.

Miami's lone loss on the year was to Georgia Tech in ACC play. A second loss would have them at 6-2.

If Miami loses to Syracuse, not only are the Hurricanes out of the running to get to Charlotte, but they would probably be out of the playoff mix entirely. Losing to Syracuse is not a terrible loss, but Miami would have two losses in ACC play without a quality win on their resume. At 10-2 (6-2), Miami would need for one-loss teams like Indiana, Notre Dame, Penn State and Texas to lose a for a second time.

Clemson would need to win the ACC to make the playoff, regardless of what happens vs. South Carolina. A third loss in a conference championship game would not be viewed the same as Georgia losing to either Texas or Texas A&M. Also, Georgia beat Clemson head-to-head way back in Week 1. Right now, SMU probably needs to win the ACC to be safe, but they could get in as an at-large team.

All things equal, Miami might be the best equipped to get in out of the ACC as an at-large team. That would require a win over Syracuse, but a loss to SMU. That feels like the most likely way the ACC gets two teams in. SMU may get in at 11-2 (7-1) with a conference title bout loss to either Miami or Clemson, but they would be in a group of about three teams vying for the last spot in the playoff.

Overall, the odds are in Miami and SMU's favor to make the playoff, whereas Clemson will probably be on the outside looking in. ESPN's FPI gives Miami an 80.4 percent chance of getting in, SMU a 62.4 percent chance of making it, but Clemson only a 24.2 percent shot. Miami has the eighth-best odds, SMU the 11th and Clemson the 17th. Clemson can still get in as a 10-2 (6-2) at-large team...

That would require some chaos in the other leagues, probably SMU losing back-to-back games to Cal and then to Miami in the ACC Championship. Clemson would need that head-to-head victory over South Carolina. Right now, I would say Clemson, Indiana and Texas A&M are the only teams in the Power Four who would be definitively be punished for losing their leagues' championship games.

Other teams that aren't playing for their only way in would probably get the benefit of the doubt here.