The SEC emerged as the best conference in men’s college basketball this season, setting an NCAA record by sending 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament. Despite their incredible success leading up to March Madness, the conference largely fell flat in the first round.
Four of nine SEC teams suffered losses in the first round, including No. 6 seed Missouri’s upset loss against No. 11 seed Drake. Among the SEC teams that managed to advance to the second round was No. 2 seed Alabama, who survived a second-half scare against No. 15 seed Robert Morris.
The Crimson Tide threatened to pull away multiple times, but Robert Morris held on and even briefly took the lead in the second half. Alabama played a majority of the game without forward Grant Nelson, who entered the tournament with a knee injury. Whether it was Nelson’s injury or the Colonial’s effort, the SEC powerhouse struggled to live up to their status as 22.5-point favorites.
Although Alabama rallied behind All-American guard Mark Sears and pulled out a 90-81 victory, they might find themselves in trouble with their next opponent.
Alabama could face trouble against Saint Mary’s due to stylistic differences
Alabama will face No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s on Sunday after the Gaels defeated No. 10 seed Vanderbilt, 59-56. While Alabama will enter the game as favorites, the stylistic differences in their matchup could present problems.
Alabama has the quickest pace in the country with an adjusted tempo of 75 possessions, per KenPom. In contrast, Saint Mary’s is ranked No. 359 in pace with an adjusted tempo of 61.6 possessions, fifth-slowest in the country. That’s an average difference of nearly 13 possessions per game, as noted by ESPN’s Jeff Borzello.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the additional possessions will play in Alabama’s favor. Saint Mary’s has plenty of size to go along with their the seventh-ranked defense, which could frustrate an Alabama team that prefers to play aggressively early in the shot clock. If the Gaels can rebound well and create second-chance points, they could force Alabama into their style of basketball: a low-possession defensive grind.
The Crimson Tide will have to contend with several lengthy players, likely without Nelson at full strength. Gaels center Mitchell Saxen is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and guard Augustas Marciulionis, the two-time West Coast Conference Player of the Year, can make the late-game shots they’d need to match Alabama.
While that outcome may be unlikely, it’s far from impossible. After all, March Madness is all about upsets. Alabama will have to play a cleaner game than they did in the first round if they hope to advance to reach the Sweet 16.