Alex Smalley isn't the out-of-nowhere PGA Championship contender you think

Considering that Alex Smalley entered the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink relatively anonymously and as a 150/1 long shot to win, there's no denying the surprise that he entered Sunday's final round with the 54-hole lead, sitting two strokes ahead of a massive chase pack at the PGA Championship. It's even more surprising considering that this marked only his fifth start in a major championship for his career.

And yet, there were signs. Maybe not abundantly clear signs that Alex Smalley was going to be the one to even mildly separate on a brutally difficult golf course playing with the deepest field in major championship golf, but signs that he was playing better than his odds or notoriety would indicate coming into Aronimink.

Alex Smalley's ascension started well before the PGA Championship

If you just look at something like the Official World Golf Ranking or the pre-tournament odds board, this might seem like an outlandish thing to say about Smalley. He's only the 78th-ranked player in the world right now and, as mentioned, was also 150/1 at points throughout the week leading up to the first official tee shot being hit at Aronimink.

Diving into the stats, however, it's a different story. Over the last sixth months according to Data Golf's statistical rankings, Smalley has been the 38th-best player in the world. Over the last three months, he's been even hotter, rising to 23rd in the same metric. And it's even better for the past month, wherein Smalley has been the 12th-best player in the world statistically.

His recent finishes have backed that up, as well. Smalley was quietly T17 at Truist last week, T7 at Doral the week before that, and had a T14 finish at the Valero Texas Open in his last start prior to that. So again, while it's surprising, the form that he's been makes it obvious that it's most definitely not him coming out of legitimately nowhere.

If there is a case to call it out of nowhere, though, it's from what Smalley's career has looked like to this point. When you look at his career, and specifically his major record, it would've been hard to see this breakout performance coming.

Alex Smalley major championship history and PGA Tour career

As mentioned, the 2026 PGA Championship is actually just Smalley's fifth career start in a major. And what certainly makes his success at Aronimink surprising is the fact that he's done so little with his major starts prior to this year. Take a look at his finishes.

For those keeping score at home, that's two missed cuts in four previous starts and no finishes inside of the Top 20. Not exactly the major championship resumé you'd expect for someone in viable contention to win on Sunday at this year's PGA Championship. Perhaps even more stunning is the fact that Smalley has still never played in either the Masters Tournament or The Open Championship in his career, and hasn't played the U.S. Open since he was an amateur in 2017.

And while Smalley has put forth some quality finishes on the PGA Tour, he's never made his way to the proverbial winner's circle. He was runner-up at the 2022 Corales Puntacana Championship and at the 2023 John Deere Classic as well. He and teammate Hayden Springer also finished tied for second at the Zurich Classic earlier this year.

Alex Smalley winning the PGA Championship would be historic, even if not out of nowhere

While I'll maintain that the statistical profile has been too good to say that Smalley came in out of nowhere at Aronimink, it would undeniably be historic. As noted by the premier golf statistician and historian, Justin Ray, Smalley would be the first American player to get his first PGA Tour victory at a major championship since Shaun Micheel, who captured the 2003 PGA Championship.

For something that we haven't seen in 23 years, that feels safe to say that it's historic. And perhaps this is a new sign of what's yet to come for the 29-year-old Smalley.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow