Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky face a tough test Tuesday night, on the road against the unbeaten New York Liberty in a Commissioner's Cup matchup. And if recent trends hold, it's likely to be ugly.
The last time out, the Sky lost to the Indiana Fever, without Caitlin Clark, by 27 points. It was their third loss of the season by 20 points or more and another extremely tough game for Reese — 4 points and 12 rebounds on 2-of-7 shooting.
Reese's poor shooting has been an issue since last season and may be reaching a breaking point, with a trade or benching potentially on the table. She's made just 30.9 percent of her shots this season, including 11-of-38 (28.9 percent) on shots at the rim. Her jumper hasn't been a weapon either, and she's just 1-of-5 on the season on shots outside of 10 feet.
It's only been seven games, but Reese is on track for one of the worst offensive seasons in WNBA history, and you can highlight any number of rock-bottom statistical indicators.
Angel Reese's offensive stats are an absolute mess
You can start with the fact that Reese has more rebounds (86) than points (64) — something that's both a reflection of her incredible rebounding and her struggles to put the ball in the basket. But she also has more turnovers (26) than field goals made (21), and twice as many turnovers as steals and blocks combined. Those trends are markedly different from last year, when she found other ways to contribute even when she was struggling to make shots.
To put her shooting struggles into context, Reese is 19-of-59 on shots within five feet of the basket, by far the worst mark in the league among players with at least 40 such shots. Even shooting as well as the second-worst shooter, Kelsey Plum, would mean she made nine extra shots in seven games. Again, that's not going to league average — that's going from worst to second-worst, adding 18 points, more than two points per game, to the Sky's offense.
Her offensive rebounding is a boost to her team's offense, but there is a deep connection to her own shooting woes. Nearly a third of her offensive rebounds this season are z-bounds — a rebound off her own missed shot. She's also made just 6-of-20 shots that came immediately after she rebounded her own shot, which means the Sky aren't exactly turning her boards into easy put-back points.
There are some reasons for optimism, though. For all her struggles, Estimated Contribution — an all-on-one metric that incorporates both box score stats and on-off splits — estimates Reese to be essentially a neutral contributor. She is a good defender, especially for a second-year player, and her offensive struggles are probably exacerbated by the state of the team, which is lacking a ton of perimeter creation and outside shooting.
The problem is that the state of the Sky roster is not likely to change this season. She may benefit from some progression to the mean, but no one is going to confuse this situation with a good environment for player development. All that is to say, it should get better. But there is a long, difficult road ahead for both Reese and the Sky.