The greatest month of the year is finally here: It's officially March, and there's just one week left until conference tournaments begin and March Madness ramps up in earnest. Bracket projections have begun, and everyone's poring through the data to see which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
One piece of data? The AP Top 25 poll, which released its latest edition on Monday afternoon. It provides a helpful snapshot of where teams are trending with just days remaining in the regular season. But it's also far from infallible, and this week, like every week, we've got some bones to pick.
Michigan State deserved better after a massive week
Michigan State is coming off a sensational week, surviving No. 13 Maryland on the road thanks to a half-court miracle before pulling away from No. 12 Wisconsin in the second half on Saturday. Tom Izzo's Spartans have now won five in a row, and all five have come against the top seven teams in the conference standings.
Their reward for all that winning? Well, not much: Sparty somehow didn't move up a single spot in the AP poll this week, failing to leapfrog Alabama after the Tide's loss at Tennessee. Of course, losing on the road against a potential No. 1 seed is hardly anything to hang your head about, but it's tough to imagine what else Michigan State has to do to move up at this point. They have 10 Quad 1 wins now, tied for the second most in the country, and no one wants to see them come the Big Dance.
St. John's is a great story, but a storm might be brewing
Another team that Michigan State had a case to pass up this week: the Red Storm, who are up to No. 6 in the country — their highest ranking in over three decades. The Johnnies are among the best stories of this season, capturing their first outright Big East title since the 1980s in Rick Pitino's first year at the helm. The sport is better when this program is rolling, and with a ferocious defense in tow, St. John's certainly could make a deep run in March.
All that being said, the hype train may have gotten a little bit out of control. The 26-4 overall record looks awfully shiny, but St. John's is just 3-4 in Quad 1 wins on the season, and they're just 15th according to KenPom. The biggest culprit? An offense that's had a tendency to run dry for spells (just 71st overall in offensive efficiency), and a schedule that hasn't offered a ton of opportunities for marquee wins. The Johnnies lost their two biggest games of non-conference against Baylor and Georgia, and while they've beaten UConn (twice), Creighton and Marquette over this recent run, the Big East doesn't offer the depth that some of the bigger conferences do.
Vanderbilt notched two ranked wins and has nothing to show for it
Speaking of teams that went unrewarded despite a great week: Vandy went on the road to beat Texas A&M before upsetting Missouri in overtime over the weekend for their third win a row, a streak that's gotten them to .500 in the best conference in the country. But the Commodores remain unranked, receiving 78 votes and falling just outside this week's Top 25.
You can understand why. Before this recent win streak, the 'Dores had lost six of eight games to put their NCAA Tournament bid in some doubt. But Mark Byington's team has righted the ship of late, and the resume certainly looks worthy of a ranking: 20-9 overall and 8-8 in SEC play, with five Quad 1 wins including victories over Tennessee and Kentucky. They certainly have an argument to be ahead of the A&M team they just beat a few days ago, as well as Arizona and another program on this list ...
Kentucky isn't playing like a top-20 team right now
Mark Pope's Wildcats have been a ton of fun to watch at times this season, but Kentucky has begun to take on water recently. Saturday's blowout loss to Auburn dropped UK to 5-7 in their last 12 games, and while there are two wins over Tennessee in that span, there are also losses to Arkansas, Texas and, yes, Vanderbilt. Kentucky's nine Quad 1 wins will be tough for anyone to stack up against, but they've also had more opportunities than just about anyone else, and the fact remains that they haven't taken advantage of most of them recently.
Part of this also comes down to health. Jaxson Robinson is now done for the year, and Kerr Kriisa doesn't appear to be returning any time soon. There's still plenty of talent here, and Kentucky might be worthy of a ranking more toward the back of the Top 25, but No. 19 feels a bit much given what we've seen from them lately.
St. Mary's is finally ranked, but the Gaels still aren't respected enough
Justice for the Gaels! Randy Bennett's team climbed two spots up to No. 21 this week, but that's still too low for a team that's 4-2 in Quad 1 games, 27-4 overall and has already swept Gonzaga this season. This is one of the very best defensive teams in the country, and the offense has slowly crept up inside the top 40 in efficiency, with Mikey Lewis and Augustas Marciulionis combining to make up one of the steeliest backcourts anywhere.
You can look at St. Mary's schedule and see a lack of real statement wins — a relatively down year for the Zags certainly hasn't helped there — but there are also no bad losses, with a road defeat at third-place San Francisco the only blemish on their conference record. All they've done is win, most of the time very convincingly, and they've shown a consistency lacking from some of the teams above them.
Michigan's close-game bubble may have finally burst
Michigan rode a wave of improbable close-game luck to a 20-5 record through their first 25 contests. But that bubble may have burst of late: Not only have the Wolverines lost two of their last four, but those two wins came by the skin of their teeth against Rutgers and Nebraska. KenPom has them all the way down at 29th now, and yet they're still ranked at No. 17 in the latest AP poll.
When things are humming, the Wolverines look as good as anyone; not many teams have a seven-foot duo as skilled as Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. But when that beautiful machine breaks down and the turnovers start piling up, things can get ugly in a hurry; Michigan doesn't have impressive size, strength or athleticism on the perimeter, which can make their defense exploitable. (See also: giving up 82 points to a Rutgers team that's had among the worst offenses in the conference.)