It was a thrilling finish at the Cognizant to kick off the Florida swing, but we're now into the two heaviest hitters on this stage of the PGA Tour season, starting this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. This tournament and signature event has a habit of producing elite winners but also some great moments as well. That could definitely be the case considering the histories of both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the top two favorites this week, at Bay Hill.
Though I was enticed to look at Scottie or Rory, though, we're going in a different direction. Despite McIlroy's success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, there's just one win to his credit, which is just about the only way I'd feel comfortable betting him given his odds. With Scheffler, he just hasn't been the unstoppable force he was last year since returning from injury. That could quickly and easily change, but I'm not going to get behind someone at shorter than 4/1 odds that I have questions about.
After another 0-fer last week at the Cognizant, we're getting in a bit of a hole but you can always find your way out pretty quickly when it comes to golf. With that, let's dive right into the PGA Tour expert picks this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational with predictions for the winner, a Top 10 finish, One and Done and then diving into some sleepers worth backing this week.
Golf betting record in 2025: 5-30-0, -15.175 Units (-3 Units at Cognizant | One and Done Total for 2025: $3,244,538 (Shane Lowry at Cognizant, $186,986)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Arnold Palmer Invitational golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Justin Thomas (+2500, FanDuel)
Brian Kirschner and I are on the same page with Justin Thomas this week for the SI Golf betting panel but I love what JT is trending for this week. He's been putting himself in the mix pretty consistently this year, most recently with a T6 in Phoenix and a T9 at the Genesis where he was a dynamo on approach, gaining more than 13 strokes just on approach in those two events. He's also shown a liking for Bay Hill with a T21 and T12 finish in the past two years. It's felt like time for him to break through with a win for weeks now. This is where he gets it done (though I'm a bit upset his odds have dipped since I tipped him for SI. What can ya do?).
Top 10 pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Maverick McNealy (+350)
We've got to start putting some real respect on Maverick McNealy's name this season. Since his win at the RSM Classic, he's shown up at some big-time events. He was T8 at The Sentry, T9 in Phoenix and then runner-up at the Genesis. The major evolution for McNealy, who's long been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, has been his peaking on approach and with his ball-striking. He's gained at least 3.77 strokes on approach in four of his last seven starts and has gained overall in at least six of those starts. He's not the longest hitter but he's long enough off the tee and his game is set up to finally tackle a place where he has never finished better than T46 in four starts.
One and Done pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Patrick Cantlay
I was torn between wanting to go with a heavy-hitter but also having already used JT and not wanting to burn Scottie or Rory just yet. That's where I landed on Patrick Cantlay, who's quietly been playing quality golf and finishing well. In four starts in 2025, he's finished T15 at Sentry, T5 at The American Express, a disappointing T33 at Pebble but a bounce-back for a T5 at The Genesis. With his approach play returning of late and a Top 5 finish at Bay Hill in the past two years, I'm comfortable with the high floor it appears Cantlay provides.
Sleepers to watch at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top 20 sleeper pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.9 Units): Michael Kim (+190)
There's always something to be said for riding the hot hand, and that might just be Michael Kim right now. Whether regular PGA Tour events or signature events, he's just been getting it done with four straight finishes of T13 or better, including a T2 at Phoenix and T6 at Cognizant last week. Over that span, he's gaining an average of 7.03 strokes tee-to-green while also being a positive putter. With how he's hitting it, getting nearly 2/1 odds for a Top 20 in a limited field feels like a spot we can take advantage of.
Sleeper to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.1 Units): Cam Davis (+17000, FanDuel)
I went way down the board to find a sleeper to win just because it feels right to take an ultra long shot in a field like this for a signature event. Cam Davis missed the cut at The Genesis but was T5 at Pebble, T18 at The American Express and T13 at The Sentry prior to that. What's more, he also popped up with a T18 finish at Bay Hill just last year. When you combine that with his recent form of being 15th in weighted SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Around-the-Green, third in SG: Par 5 and 13th in SG: Par 3 200+ yards, he's in form to fit this place well and have another great week at the API.