Atlanta Falcons news: Will pass rush improve after the bye? How to win the NFC South
By John Buhler
It has been a challenging and frustrating last two weeks for the Atlanta Falcons. After getting off to a 6-3 start, the Dirty Birds have dropped a pair of games to stumble to 6-5 heading into their annual bye week. The road loss to the New Orleans Saints after they just fired their head coach was tough to stomach. Getting absolutely curb stomped by the Denver Broncos last weekend was flat-out pitiful.
The bye could not come at a better time. The offense seems to have stagnated just a bit, while everybody and their brother is starting to figure out Jimmy Lake's unadaptable defense. What does give me some hope that Atlanta will figure it out is that they are two games ahead of the 4-7 Saints, as well as a game-and-a-half ahead of the 4-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who they swept and lost four in a row.
On the most recent episode of The Blogging Dirty Podcast, I went through all five phases of grief when it comes to how I feel about the Falcons heading into the bye week. This is a playoff team, but not a Super Bowl. Next year is the year for that, and that is okay. What isn't okay is for this team to come out of the bye with no noticeable improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Gotta have it!
Here are some of my biggest thoughts and takeaways for the Falcons heading into their bye week.
Biggest takeaways from the first "half" of the Atlanta Falcons' season
The first "half" of the Atlanta Falcons' season has been both rewarding, yet maddening. My most positive takeaway from the first 11 games has to be the well-rounded approach I see Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Falcons' offense operate Zac Robinson's scheme. It has not always been perfect, but I see this team growing and learning together on the fly. This is the best part about this fun team.
My biggest criticism has been the stagnating nature of the Falcons' defense. This team has never been able to get after the passer, and I don't really expect for that to change. What has bothered me the most is the bend, but don't break philosophy of Jimmy Lake is breaking more often than not because the defense is simply not creating turnovers to help give their offense another possession.
Overall, the Falcons are more good than bad, but not quite good enough to hang with the biggest and baddest teams in the NFL this season. On their best days, they can hang with them into the final minutes. On their worst days, the Falcons can get pushed around by a team who is arguably worse than them. I would say that this team is trying to figure out what it can and cannot do moving forward.
How this team responds after a challenging last few weeks will determine if they are playoff-caliber.
How should Atlanta Falcons fans be feeling heading into the bye week?
I think the best way to look at the Falcons through their first 11 games of the season is this is right about where they should be. Ideally, I would have preferred for them to be 7-4, but there were games that they won that they should have lost, and vice versa. If this was the second season of the Raheem Morris era, I would have real concerns about their ability to flip the script and just win games anyway.
However, I am willing to be patient for a new head coach and a new staff to come together when it matters most. Arthur Blank picked Morris to be the head coach of this team because he believed he would be the perfect CEO-type to get Atlanta back into the playoffs and contending for Super Bowls. We do not need to panic and take the cake out of the oven before we are even close to enjoying it.
What I would say about how to feel about the Falcons heading into the bye is this. Feel however you choose to feel about the Falcons for the time being, optimistic or pessimistic. Just know that our expectations for this team to come out with a refined sense of confidence during the Week 13 game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers is paramount. They do not have to win it, but cannot get embarrassed.
The Falcons need to rest, recover and relax, understanding that they are the best team in the division.
What needs to happen for the Atlanta Falcons to still win the NFC South?
At 6-5, the Falcons are 1.5 games up on the Buccaneers at 4-6, two games up on the Saints at 4-7, and 2.5 games up on the Carolina Panthers. They are 4-1 in the division with a season sweep of the Buccaneers, a season split with the Saints and 1-0 with one game remaining at the end of the season vs. Carolina. Getting a fifth win in NFC South play over Carolina is probably of the utmost importance.
The last thing Atlanta needs is let 4-2 in NFC South play be the reason they do not make the playoffs. The way I see it is this. Atlanta has six games left: Home vs. the Chargers, at the Minnesota Vikings, at the Las Vegas Raiders, home vs. the New York Giants, at the Washington Commanders and then home vs. the Panthers. Las Vegas, New York and Carolina are must-wins. They must win one more...
So between the Chargers, Vikings and Commanders games, one of them needs to be a Falcons victory. Those are all playoff-caliber teams like the Falcons. Should Atlanta drop a game to Las Vegas, New York, or god forbid Carolina, they need to win two of three between Los Angeles, Minnesota and Washington. The magic number to win the division for Atlanta has to be 10 victories. It is very doable.
Let me put it this way. If Atlanta goes 3-3 or worse in its final six, the Falcons don't deserve to make it.
What are the chances Atlanta Falcons' pass rush improves after the bye?
For as much as I would love to see the Falcons get a pass rush going, I have been a fan of this team for the better part of my life, and I cannot say that we have had anything close to a good pass rush since John Abraham last played for the team. The 2016 Vic Beasley year was the epitome of an outlier. Unless Matthew Judon plays with his hair on fire down the stretch, I don't see it happening.
What I do see happening is Raheem Morris telling the leaders of his defense in Jessie Bates III, Kaden Ellis and Grady Jarrett that they have to be the ones to make the difference. I would suspect that Morris may have a more hands-on role in coaching up the defense, particularly in the back-end. That may be the best area of the Falcons defense, but it needs to be elite down the stretch or it will be bad.
Overall, I think Morris will take a good, hard look at his defensive coaching staff this offseason. If Jeff Ulbrich is not deemed a serious candidate to get the interim tag removed with the New York Jets, Morris will hire him on the spot and name him the defensive coordinator of this team over Jimmy Lake. I hated the Lake hire when it happened. He had me fooled for the first few weeks, but not now.
Atlanta is talented enough to make the playoffs, but coaching inexperience might unravel the team.