AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for Pebble

Outside of the first signature event of the PGA Tour season, we haven't seen many big names hoisting the trophy. That feels likely to change as we head to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It's the second signature event of the 2025 campaign, which is big in its own right, especially at iconic venues like Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill where players will tee it up this weekend, but all of the big names are here. That includes Scottie Scheffler.

Doubting Scheffler at any point over the past couple of years has been highly unprofitable. Having said that, with the World No. 1 making his 2025 debut after cutting his hand making ravioli and being forced to recover from that, this might be the best chance yet to find some value below Scheffler when it comes to the odds board. That could backfire spectacularly, sure. But maybe, you know?

We're taking a wait-and-see approach with Scheffler. That's not the case with our other predictions, however, so let's dive right into our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf expert picks for this week's signature event on the PGA Tour.

Golf betting record in 2025: 3-12-0, -4.025 Units (-1.5 Units at Farmers) | One and Done Total for 2025: $2,376,002 (Keegan Bradley at Farmers, $132,732)

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Thomas (+1400)

Justin Thomas looks like he's back to the old JT. He was T2 at the ZOZO in the fall, third at the Hero, Top 30 at The Sentry and then runner-up at The American Express. He also finished T6 at Pebble Beach last year and is playing far better of late. He's dominated on short courses with the best strokes gained number on such venues in the field over their last 24 rounds while also being fourth on approach from 100-125 yards and sixth in weighted SG: Approach over that same 24-round span. He's going to win a big one soon and this seems like an ideal fit with how he's hitting his wedges and as a positive putter on Poa.

Top 10 pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Tom Hoge (+450)

It can definitely be a round-to-round proposition when it comes to Tom Hoge. While he only has one Top 10 in three starts this season, it came at the other signature event at The Sentry. But he also popped at Sony and The AmEx before fading a bit. Still, he's been a positive putter on Poa more so than you would expect while ranking fifth in weighted SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and first in that important 100-125-yard range for this week at Pebble. It's aggressive but he feels live to be able to make some real noise this week on the coastline.

One and Done pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Thomas

With this being a signature event at Pebble Beach, there's no reason to not take a big name like Justin Thomas. I'm fully convicted that JT is trending toward a win right now but, even he doesn't come through with the victory, a podium finish also feels likely, which would be a nice come-up for any One and Done league.

Sleepers to watch at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Top 20 sleeper pick for the Farmers Insurance Open (0.9 Units): Jordan Spieth (+200)

So, while I'm waiting and seeing with Scheffler, there's value in not doing that with Jordan Spieth. He's making his first start since recovering from wrist surgery after the injury plagued him throughout 2024. Because of that, there aren't really stats or data to back up a case for Spieth — that is, except for his history at Pebble. While his last two starts here have been outside the Top 30, he had three straight Top 10s including two Top 5s here immediately prior to that, won here in 2017 and has two other Top 10s earlier in his career. I'm willing to take a good price on Spieth to see if he comes out guns a-blazing.

Sleeper pick to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (0.1 Units): Sam Stevens (+11000, FanDuel)

Outside of finishing runner-up at Farmers last week, it's been a bit sporadic for Sam Stevens in the late fall and early 2025. But the game should fit Pebble extremely well. He's an accurate driver given his length and a Top 25 player in the field in Good Driver Percentage while also ranking fourth in weighted SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and 11th in SG: Putting on Poa. At 110-1, I'm more than willing to take a chance on a player with that kind of profile and upside in the hopes that he gets hot.