It's safe to say that Juan Soto hasn't been what New York Mets fans expected two months into his career with his new team after signing that record-breaking $765 million contract. While bad luck has played a huge role, ultimately, that isn't the only reason why he hasn't lived up to the hype yet.
Objectively speaking, Soto has gotten extremely unlucky. Despite crushing the baseball all season long, at least as far as his batted-ball metrics are concerned, he enters Tuesday's action with a .233/.361/.409 slash line with eight home runs and 25 RBI. He's drawn a ton of walks and has even stolen seven bases already, but the hits, particularly for extra bases, simply haven't been there.
While he's hit into some rough luck, the poor luck isn't all that's held him back from breaking out.
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Shift in Juan Soto's approach can partly explain poor Mets start
There are a couple of alarming trends to pay attention to when taking a look at Soto's batted-ball data. First, his ground ball rate has spiked from 44.7 percent last season to 52.9 percent this season. For reference, Soto ranks tied for 21st in ground ball rate among qualified hitters after ranking 76th last season. While he might find some holes hitting the ball on the ground here and there, a high ground ball rate is the last thing that a hitter of Soto's ability should want.
Second, and perhaps most alarmingly, Soto has pulled the ball in the air at an 11.5 percent rate, way down from his 19.1 percent last season. He was never going to pull as much, now that he's not playing half his games at Yankee Stadium, but this approach has undoubtedly played a role in his struggles.
Did the short porch help Soto out last season? Absolutely. Was it the only reason that he hit 41 home runs? Absolutely not. In fact, Soto hit more home runs on the road (21) than he did at home last season (20), and had as many expected home runs at Yankee Stadium (46) as he did at Citi Field, according to Baseball Savant.
Citi Field might not be Yankee Stadium, but it's 330 feet down the right field line and 375 feet to right-center field. It is far from impossible to hit home runs at that ballpark, especially for a hitter who hits the ball as hard as Soto does. He had a ridiculous amount of success at Citi Field as a visitor, after all, so we know that his bat plays at that ballpark, as it does at every other one.
Soto has hit into a ridiculous amount of bad luck, but hitting the ball in the air and to the pull side more than he has should spark an in-season turnaround. He's not chasing, and is hitting the ball hard; he simply has to hit the ball in better spots. That's easier said than done, of course, but if anyone can make these adjustments, it's Soto.