Not all jobs are created equally. When it comes to the NFL, ball security is job security, yours and mine. For every team that is led by a former MVP such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, you should be feeling great about where your favorite team is at heading into the season. Barring some unforeseen injury, those teams largely have it. But what about the other guys, though?
Yes, there are players still on rookie contracts who need to go out and prove themselves. We all know who they are. Conversely, there are a few quarterbacks on second contracts and second teams and whatnot who still have a lot to prove this season. What I am getting at is the narrative on these 10 players could change for the better, or worse, depending on the type of season they have this fall.
As the title of the post suggests, Baker Mayfield is among those teams. Can he take his game to an even higher level, now that the bottom of the NFC South seems to be on the verge of rising up? I am bullish on what he can do this season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but there is also reason to believe things may not go as swimmingly for him as they have been the last two years with the team.
Let's start with a quarterback who needs to prove once and for all he is actually a dude in this league.
10. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert
This is the year in the NFL where I am just going to be done with people once and for all. I am all out on the Pittsburgh Steelers, even with Aaron Rodgers coming aboard at the last minute. Whoever does not get to a Super Bowl between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills, I am fully out on as well. As far as a quarterback is concerned, I need to see if Justin Herbert can actually be a superstar or not.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been up and down with him as their quarterback. I think he is better than Trevor Lawrence is for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but one more so-so season or one more early playoff exit will have me fully convinced that he is the Matthew Stafford you have at home. Herbert is fine, but if this is all he is, then we need to stop putting him on a pedestal like guys who belong there.
Jim Harbaugh left Michigan for a reason. Chief among them was to coach this former Oregon star.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield
As stated above, Baker Mayfield finds himself on this list, but only barely. This is because I tend to be a subscriber to what he can do on the football field. He seems to have found a home as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but what happens when the tailwinds he has experienced have become headwinds? He will be working with his third different offensive coordinator since coming aboard.
The good news for him is Josh Grizzard was a promotion from within. The bad news is Liam Coen now joins Dave Canales in getting to lead an NFL team of his own. Factor in the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers potentially being playoff viable, and we have to wonder if Mayfield has enough talent inside him to continue to separate and elevate from the rest of the pack in the NFC South.
Mayfield will be asked to do more with Todd Bowles needing to do more to help this defense out.
8. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy got paid! The good news for the San Francisco 49ers is that his massive contract does not kick in until the 2026 NFL season. The bad news is if he plays poorly this year, next and beyond, this could go down as one of the worst deals in NFL history. Mr. Irrelevant is relevant now. He is being paid like a superstar, so he needs to go out and regularly play like one. Will he play like a top-10 guy?
Having Kyle Shanahan in his ear and on the sidelines is a huge boost for the positive in that regard. He has the runway to be the best quarterback to play for Shanahan to date. What I am concerned about is he has not looked the same since getting hurt two years ago. Even more concerning, what notable players in San Francisco are going to have to look for new teams to play for now that Purdy got paid?
Purdy may have been worth the money to some, but I found him to be a bit of an overpay this spring.
7. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold
Was last year the anomaly or the start of something new? Sam Darnold is on yet another team having joined the Seattle Seahawks' cause for this season. He replaces the very popular and polished Geno Smith, who now spins it for the Las Vegas Raiders. Getting to play for Klint Kubiak could be huge for Darnold. I am very concerned that he was largely propped up by the Minnesota Vikings organization.
Factor in that former Alabama Crimson Tide star Jalen Milroe is backing him up and capable of doing things I can only describe as Michael Vick-esque, yes, I would be worried too if I was a Darnold truther, of which thankfully, I am not. Let me put it this way. If Darnold does not play well for the Seahawks this season, it is over for him even remotely being labeled as a franchise guy any more.
It could really go either way for Darnold in Seattle, but I would say that I am cautiously optimistic.
6. Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young
Bryce Young finds himself in the middle of the pack here for a few reasons. I love that Dave Canales is his head coach for another season. While the Carolina Panthers have largely stunk throughout most of his time in Charlotte, they did seem to take a turn for the better in the second half of last season. This coincided with Young be re-inserted into the starting lineup after getting benched previously.
To me, this is the year where Young proves to us once and for all that he can be a Pro Bowl player in this league. Not to say he is going to end up like the injury-prone Sam Bradford, but he always looked small with his floppy sleeves throughout his NFL career out of Oklahoma. They may be members of the same Heisman Trophy fraternity, but this feels like the last year Young can become an NFL star.
Again, having Canales in his ear is a huge plus, but Young has to take it upon himself to be better.
5. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
We may need to give Drake Maye a little bit more time. What he walked into out of North Carolina in Foxborough was the wreckage of a war zone. The New England Patriots he first played for reminded me of the utter rubbish Drew Bledsoe had to endure right away out of Washington State. Now that he has a quality NFL head coach to play for in Mike Vrabel, it is time to see what Maye has going for him.
While I am not ruling out the idea that he becomes the next wait-and-see superstar that Justin Herbert has become for the Los Angeles Chargers, there is one thing that is still constantly in the back of my mind snagging when I think of Maye. I just wonder if he has the mental toughness to overcome being beaten day in and day out by dysfunction in the form of gaslighting. It is a tough ask.
How Andrew Luck's career started to unravel with the Indianapolis Colts feels somewhat similar.
4. Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward
Admittedly, I was not high on Cam Ward coming out of Miami. He may have the physical gifts that a bad team like the Tennessee Titans could want, but the guy simply did not win enough in college. Miami was his third team after Washington State and Incarnate Word. The fact John Mateer did more with less immediately after him in Pullman is a statement of fact that I simply cannot shake one bit.
No doubt about it, Ward enters his first season in the NFL with a ton of hype and expectations. The Titans are an inherently screwy organization, one that he must overcome to be great in the NFL. His quick release continues to wow me. I just wonder if he has the right mental makeup to not be another first-round quarterback that did not work out playing for the Titans in Nashville. I have my concerns.
Even if this year is a struggle for Ward, he will get one, maybe two more after this to prove his worth.
3. Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams
No player's superstardom can blossom more this year than Caleb Williams' with the Chicago Bears. From the shoulders down, he is the next Patrick Mahomes. Sorry, Dylan Raiola. However, I have had concerns about his mental makeup upstairs. He may be more likable than what he leads on, but his father does not always give him the best advice. Could Williams become the next Cam Newton?
I do not think it is in Williams' nature to be a true foxhole guy. When it is good, he could be a tremendous frontrunner, exactly what Newton was at his prime in Auburn and in Carolina. While Ben Johnson could be huge for him in getting the most out of his talent, what if Williams proves to be a head case? To me, we will know after this season if he is the next Newton or the next Jeff George.
I am hoping for the great people of Chicago that Williams becomes the Bears' first 4,000-yard passer.
2. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
We have finally arrived at my guy, Michael Penix Jr. No quarterback situation may be more scrutinized this year and beyond than that of the Atlanta Falcons. For the time being, general manager Terry Fontenot looks to be right for drafting Penix No. 8 overall anyway, despite paying big money to Kirk Cousins in free agency only a month or so before. Penix has the traits to be a star, but can he do it?
The way the ball comes out of his hand is special. He has great command at the line of scrimmage. His teammates seem to love him. Kalen DeBoer says he is the best leader he has ever coached. That being said, Penix is not terribly mobile, left-handed, older than most second-year quarterbacks and is a tad injury-prone. If he hits, then Atlanta has a superstar. If he does not, everyone will be fired pronto.
Of the handful of quarterbacks out there who must click, I get a sense that most are rooting for Penix.
1. Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy
There was no other candidate for No. 1. This is the year we will finally see what J.J. McCarthy is all about in the NFL. In college, he dazzled for Michigan, but he was also playing for a juggernaut team under Jim Harbaugh. While he was supposed to back up Sam Darnold last season anyway, McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury during his first preseason game with the Minnesota Vikings.
As far as the traits I like the most about McCarthy, he has strong athleticism, as well as tremendous leadership and poise. Where I am concerned is the athleticism might be overstated and that he was not terribly accurate in college. He should be a better version of what the New York Jets thought they had in Zach Wilson. I am more partial to another similar player in college today in that of Drew Allar.
I have a feeling we will know almost immediately if McCarthy can play in the league or not this season.