Bears news: Field goal fallout, Eberflus close game record, fourth down success

I hope all the Bears fans out there have a good support system, because I don't know about you, but it's taking me longer and longer to recover from each Sunday's kick in the teeth.

It's almost comical at this point how the Bears keep finding new ways to lose, whether it's giving up the easiest Hail Mary grab of all-time to the Commanders, getting pummeled by the Cardinals or shut down at home by the lowly Patriots, or this past Sunday, when a two-minute drill hero drive by Caleb Willias was rendered meaningless by a blocked field goal by the Packers.

Somehow through it all, the Matt Eberflus era marches on. The Bears have never fired a head coach in the middle of the season before, and after all the team has endured this season without making a move, it appears they never will.

We're coming at you this week with a batch of news that reinforces the need to make a head coaching change, plus one surprising stat that Bears fans probably don't know. So whether you endure the pain of every Bears loss alone or surrounded by sympathetic loved ones, kick back, relax, and be grateful that we can't be hurt again for five more days.

Even the Packers were surprised that the Bears didn't run another play before their field goal attempt

I can live with losing a game because the other team executed better than yours did. I can even live with going down in excruciating fashion because somebody made an incredible play to beat you. What I can't abide is losing because you coached so scared that even your opponents were surprised by how cowardly you were, but unfortunately that's what happened this weekend in Soldier Field.

People have been piling on Matt Eberflus for his conservative coaching style, and once again it led to a loss. After the Packers took the lead 20-19 on a Jordan Love quarterback sneak with 2:59 left, the Bears got the ball back with a chance to win.

Honestly, 2:59 is an eternity to drive down and win the game, especially with the two-minute warning and a timeout still in hand. The fact that the Bears got the ball at the 30 after a touchback made the final drive even more manageable.

Taking two sacks to start the drive certainly didn't help, as it meant that the Bears had moved nine yards in reverse by time the two-minute warning hit. After that though, everything clicked. Caleb Williams rolled out and found Rome Odunze for a gain of 16, then again hit his fellow rookie up the sideline on the next play for a gain of 21.

The Bears used a bit of extra time before running their next snap, but it proved to be a smart move, as Caleb adjusted the protection in the face of an all-out blitz. That gave him just enough time to get the ball to Keenan Allen at the Green Bay 30 with 35 seconds left.

You can tell a lot about a coach by how he acts in late game situations. Does he go for the win, or does he try not to lose? Matt Eberflus once again chose the latter, as despite still having their timeout, the Bears ran just one more play before bringing on Cairo Santos to try to win the game.

Caleb was feeling it on that final drive, making three incredible plays in a row. The Packers were on their heels. Yet instead of taking advantage, the Bears ran one handoff to D'Andre Swift and then let the clock run all the way down. We all know what happened next.

ESPN senior NFL writer Kalyn Kahler spoke to several Packers after the game, and this is what they had to say:

It didn't take a genius to see that Cairo Santos was kicking the ball low, as everyone at home and at the stadium could see that on his previous kick attempts. Everyone, it seems, except Eberflus, who didn't try to get him closer for an easier look. Eberflus complained after the game that the Packers should have been called for a penalty for lining up over the long snapper, but that's flimsy cover for the real reason the Bears lost: his scared coaching.

Santos has never missed from under 40 yards in his Bears career, which makes Eberflus' lack of aggression at the end even more anger-inducing. There are plenty of times when it's good to surprise your opponent. That's why teams run play action and halfback passes and blitzes. When your opponent is surprised that you didn't try harder to win the game, though, that's not a good thing, but it's looking more and more like that will be Eberflus' legacy.

No NFL coach is worse in close games than Matt Eberflus

It might seem like bullying to keep piling on Eberflus for his shortcomings, but as a Bears fan that has been emotionally tortured for the past month, I don't see a problem with it. If anything, Bears fans everywhere should be making their displeasure known so that Ryan Poles and the McCaskeys make a change.

Eberflus does many things in the moment that seem bad, such as wasting challenges, mismanaging the clock and not using a timeout before a game-deciding Hail Mary attempt. Zoom out though, and Eberflus is bad on a macro level that really puts him in a class of his own.

Please note that Eberflus is so far down on that list that you can't even see his name unless you click the link. That's right, he's dead last by a wide margin in winning percentage in close games among all active NFL head coaches, with almost every other coach doubling his miniscule winning percentage of 22.7.

Most games in the NFL are close, and in fact the league is on pace to set a single-season record for games decided by one possession. That means that having a coach who can thrive in late-game pressure situations is invaluable, but Eberflus has proven himself inadequate time and time again.

As one commenter to the X post above notes, Eberflus' five close-game wins have come against the Will Levis-led Titans in Week 1 (a game in which the Bears failed to score an offensive touchdown); the Rams in Week 4, who were without both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp; a Panthers team last year and a Texans team in 2022 that would go on to finish a combined 5-29-1; and a Josh Dobbs-led Vikings team last year against which the Bears again scored zero offensive touchdowns.

Eberflus's late-game mismanagement against the Commanders and Packers in the last month prove that he's not improving in this area, and if and when he does eventually get fired, this will be the reason why.

Bears continue their fourth down success

The Bears have had long stretches of offensive ineptitude this year. See their dismal offensive performances in Week 1 and 2, and the one-touchdown-in-three-games stretch against the Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots for proof. It's no wonder that Shane Waldron was fired.

The offense looked much livelier against the Packers than they have in a while. Credit to new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who simplified the playbook and formations while focusing on letting Caleb Williams get the ball out quickly, and the players, who seemed energized to have a new voice calling the plays.

Despite the Bears' inconsistencies on offense this year, one area in which they've thrived has been on fourth down, and they did it again against the Packers, going 3-3 (including the gorgeous back-shoulder throw from Caleb to Rome Odunze on the final drive). Caleb Williams was the common denominator on all three plays, as he also kept the ball on a read option and ran for a first down, and hit Roschon Johnson for a first with the Packers pass rush bearing down on him.

The Bears are 11th in the league with a 65.22 fourth down conversion percentage, but they've attempted so many of them that they actually lead the league with 15 conversions. That average of 1.5 fourth down conversions per game is actually on pace to break the NFL record of 23, which is shared by the 2023 Panthers and 2022 Browns. If the Bears keep this rate up, they'll finish the year with 25 or 26.

Modern NFL teams in the analytics revolution are going for it more than ever before, but breaking this record isn't exactly a badge of honor, as the current record-holders reflect. It's more a product of trailing a lot and being desperate, though it is encouraging that the Bears are converting at such a high percentage.