We took some time off to end the NBA season with a lot of weird rotations and rest situations, but we’re back to it tonight. We have one play lined up, and we’re targeting second-year man Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets in their Game 2 matchup with the Golden State Warriors.
We took a split and nearly broke even the last time we were in this column. Austin Reaves had us sitting pretty at the end of the first half. He had 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting in the first half. While he struggled more in the second half, he still got there. In the Josh Hart world, he couldn’t get himself into a rhythm due to some foul trouble in the first half. He had three fouls in the first half, which resulted in him playing only three minutes in the second quarter. Throw in the big rebounding nights from Ben Simmons, Derrick Jones and Kawhi Leonard, and there were far fewer opportunities for Hart to clean the glass than we would have liked.
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- Amen Thompson O4.5 Assists (+110) - 1 Unit BetMGM
We have just one play for tonight, and I’m looking at the Rockets to have a bounce-back game tonight. Thompson stuffed the stat sheet a bit in Game 1 with eight points, nine rebounds and six assists. However, the rest of the team had an abysmal shooting performance. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green combined to go 7-for-34 from the floor and 2-of-17 from 3-point range. FVV’s 2-for-13 performance was just the eighth time in NBA history where a player attempted 13 or more 3-pointers while making two or fewer triples. Three of the other instances were former Rocket James Harden. Part of the logic of this play is simply a belief in regression back towards the mean.
In Game 1, Thompson had six assists on 13 potential assists. Meanwhile, teammate FVV had seven assists on only eight potential. In his last two games against the Warriors, both of which had Jimmy Butler in the lineup, Thompson cleared this mark in both starts while averaging 7.5 potential assists per game. Now, he gets another chance to make it four straight in games against Jimmy and the Warriors.
I would expect the Warriors to continue to allow Green and VanVleet to shoot at will tonight. Both of them have struggled this year against Golden State, and, while I’m not expecting them to start shooting the lights out, I do think a few more shots are going to fall. With the way that Thompson attacks the baskets and finds shooters, the opportunities will be there for the young team looking to avoid the 0-2 start in the series.
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