Another upset-filled weekend has the Big 12 staring down a nightmare CFP scenario

The conference is essentially primed to be a one-bid league for the CFP and could actually miss out on a bye entirely.
Sam Houston v Brigham Young
Sam Houston v Brigham Young / Chris Gardner/GettyImages
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With just two weeks remaining the college football regular season, the 12-team playoff picture is still far from clear.

Week 12 included seismic upsets for the Big 12 Conference in particular, creating a three-way race for the title race.

Kansas' 17-13 upset of undefeated BYU in Provo prevented the Cougars from practically clinching a berth in the Big 12 title game, while Arizona State's dominating 24-14 toppling of Kansas State set up the biggest game of the year in Tempe for Week 13.

And let's not forget, Colorado was the biggest beneficiary of Saturday's results. It sits second and is just one more BYU loss away from the top spot as it controls its own destiny.

But with the shuffling in the standings comes some serious consequences with regard to how the College Football Playoff committee will view the conference.

The Big 12 is a three-way race for one playoff spot

With BYU v. Arizona State and Colorado v. Kansas scheduled for Week 13, both are essentially Big 12 playoff games in their own right. Kansas is not in contention for the conference title but it can yet again play spoiler.

However, with BYU being the only one-loss team, the winner of the Big 12 is likely to be the only representative in the College Football Playoff.

There's no way a three-loss Arizona State or Colorado will be remotely considered by the committee for one of the 12 spots in the bracket if BYU tops the conference. That being said, it would also be eliminated with two or three losses should Arizona State or Colorado find themselves in the title game.

In fact, there's a significant chance that in the scenario where Arizona State or Colorado win the Big 12, they could be seeded behind suspected Mountain West winner Boise State and miss out on a first-round bye entirely.

The Broncos would presumably have only a single loss (by three points to now-No. 1 Oregon) and may very well be promoted to the 4-seed if the Big 12 champion has two or more losses.

There's also a world where if Boise State loses one more game and undefeated AAC champion Army could be awarded the 4-seed ahead of the Big 12 champion.

The Big 12 likely didn't intend it but it has inherited the chaotic legacy of the Pac-12 and will be subject to the treatment it endured in the CFP era as a result.

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