College Football Playoff rankings: Projected 12-team CFP bracket for Week 13

We may get some clarity on Tuesday night, but my guess is that it won't be to the degree that we think we deserve. For the third time this year, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will come together to deliver us the goods. Who do they think are the 25 best teams in college football — and how would they comprise a first-of-its-kind 12-team College Football Playoff bracket?

The first two rankings have shown us that if you lose a game that you shouldn't, or if you lose quite badly, the Selection Committee will drop you like a ton of bricks. They have already done it to teams like Georgia and Miami. I fully expect them to do the same to contending teams like BYU and Tennessee. I would also expect that playoff pretenders like LSU and Kansas State will not be ranked.

Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings

Here is what I believe the top 25 will look like in the next College Football Playoff rankings.

1. Oregon Ducks (11-0)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1)
3. Texas Longhorns (9-1)
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1)
5. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)
8. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2)
9. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2)
10. Miami Hurricanes (9-1)
11. Boise State Broncos (9-1)
12. SMU Mustangs (9-1)
13. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2)
14. BYU Cougars (9-1)
15. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2)
16. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2)
17. Clemson Tigers (8-2)
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3)
19. Army Black Knights (9-0)
20. Tulane Green Wave (9-2)
21. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2)
22. Iowa State Cyclones (8-2)
23. UNLV Rebels (8-2)
24. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3)
25. Washington State Cougars (8-2)

Projected College Football Playoff Bracket

Based on the projected rankings, here is what the College Football Playoff field could look like.

1. Oregon Ducks (11-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (9-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (9-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
7. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
10. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
11. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. BYU Cougars (9-1) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And for a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff in these rankings.

• 13. SMU Mustangs (9-1) (ACC runner-up)
• 14. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) (SEC)
• 15. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) (Big 12 runner-up)
• 16. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) (SEC)

No, I don't think they will get the 12 teams right this week. My biggest concern is how they go about navigating the treacherous Big 12 debate. BYU has the best record, but Colorado is playing the best football, while Arizona State and Iowa State lurk off to the side, but within striking distance. TheKansas loss was bad for BYU, but I would guess the Committee does not have Colorado overtaking them just yet.

What will the Selection Committee get right — and wrong?

I would say they would get the right 16 teams up through the first four out. It feels like there is a strong delineation between the Texas A&Ms and the BYUs of the world when compared to the Clemsons and the Armies out there on the periphery. What is the most interesting part in these rankings is the amount of overseeded teams making it into the playoff based on conference affiliation. This is problematic...

I look at the team I root for in No. 9 Georgia being dropped down two spots to the No. 11 seed because we have to move No. 10 Miami to No. 3 and No. 11 Boise State to No. 4. Even crazier: No. 14 BYU gets moved up two spots to No. 12 because the Big 12 has to get a team in the field in this exercise. Teams like Georgia who have run through the gauntlet will now have to go to Penn State.

What we have here are two concurrent and incongruent logjams existing in the playoff picture: The three Big Ten contenders past Oregon in Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana, followed then by a quintet of two-loss SEC teams. Only Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia would be getting in, as Tennessee and Texas A&M would be among the first four teams out. This seems fair, but it is really?

Overall, I think in most glances at the playoff picture, everyone is going to have the same 10 teams in. That would be the four of note in the Big Ten, the four of note in the SEC, Boise State and Notre Dame. There is some debate to have SMU over Miami as the ACC representative and an even more compelling one with Colorado over BYU for the Big 12. All I know is that things will work themselves out.

For now, we must sit back and wait on what the Selection Committee decides entering this weekend.