Don't let four straight losing seasons under Chauncey Billups distract you from all the positive growth with this Portland Trail Blazers team. It's fair to be more than a little skeptical of Billups as a tactician, but Portland exceeded expectations throughout last season, building a sound defensive foundation that will only get stronger in the years to come.
Did Portland mess up by being too good to get a high draft pick? Well, Dallas had a better record and landed No. 1 in the lottery, so not really. The Blazers are doing this thing the right way, and their reward is a chance to select 11th overall in this month's NBA Draft.
With only one pick at their disposal, the Blazers front office is under pressure to nail the selection. This is a deep lottery class, but things get a little weird around the 11th pick, as opinions diverge for a lot of the prospects in that range.
As such, the experts pretty much all peg different players in Portland, depending on where you look. Let's dive into a handful of mock drafts from around the web to gauge who might be in the mix when the Blazers are on the clock.
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Trail Blazers projected picks at No. 11
Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo, ESPN — Egor Demin, F, BYU
BYU freshman Egor Demin was a big hit at the Combine and it's clear he has fans around the NBA, so take this with a grain of salt: picking him in the lottery feels like a fireable offense. I understand the idea — 6-foot-8 point guard-wing hybird with telekinetic playmaking powers — but Demin is a nonfactor scoring the ball and he's a very limited defender. He shot a hair below 28 percent from deep at BYU and he's not quick or agile enough to consistently create angles to the rim as a driver. He fits into a fun archetype hypothetically, but it's unclear how it actually translates without substantial development. Portland does need more plus passers, though, so... whatever.
Jonathan Wasserman, Bleacher Report — Asa Newell, F, Georgia
This is more palatable, although it's unclear if Asa Newell and Donovan Clingan is a perfect offensive marriage long term. The defense would be stout, and Newell plus Clingan gives Portland a huge rebounding advantage every night, but he's more of a theoretical shooter right now and the majority of his offensive production comes on cuts, rolls and lobs, not unlike Clingan. Newell gets to his points in different ways, but operates in the same areas of the floor, with the occasional spot-up 3 to break things up. It's a worthwhile swing, but Portland can probably do better here.
Kevin O'Connor, Yahoo — Liam McNeeley, F, UConn
Not to be so glib, but Liam McNeeley is another oft-projected lottery pick that I am flagging as a serious potential misuse of resources. He was often UConn's best player as a freshman, but he's an avowed sharpshooter who didn't really shoot that well (sub-32 percent on 3s) and the defensive ceiling is, uh, limited. McNeeley is a smart, heady connective piece, but there has to be a more ambitious swing available in this spot.
Danny Chau and J. Kyle Mann, The Ringer — Derik Queen, C, Maryland
This is probably the best pick of the bunch value-wise, but questions remain — mostly because Derik Queen is definitely a center, and Portland just spent the No. 7 pick on Donovan Clingan a year ago. Queen has touch out to the 3-point line, but he's an erratic 3-point shooter at best right now. Defensively, there are major questions about his mobility (or lack thereof) in space and middling rim protection numbers. Putting him next to another paint-bound center for the next eight years could leave both struggling to reach their full potential. On the other hand, Queen's unique blend of strength, agility and playmaking verve at the five spot might be too appealing to pass up.
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic — Kasparas Jakučionis, G, Illinois
Bingo. This is the optimal intersection of talent and fit for Portland. There will be a "but another guard?" crowd, but Jakučionis is 6-foot-6, and Portland's batallion of plus defenders on the wing should help cover up gaps in coverage. It's also fair to assume that one of Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson will get traded eventually, whether it's this summer, next summer, or a different future summer. Jakučionis has the shooting and off-ball awareness necessary to share the floor with another ball-handler, while his pick-and-roll mastery ought to play well next to big rim finishers like Clingan and Deandre Ayton.