Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gave the Toronto Blue Jays a hard deadline to hammer out a contract extension: the beginning of spring training.
As expected, the Blue Jays and Guerrero did not agree to terms within the allotted timeframe. Guerrero will test free agency next winter, when he will be eligible for a record-setting contract in keeping with MLB's recent financial boom.
Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto set the record for highest all-time guarantees in successive years. Guerrero probably won't eclipse Soto's gobsmacking $765 million deal, but with another season like 2024, he could get an awful lot closer than folks expect.
The Blue Jays still want to keep Guerrero around, and frankly, it feels like Guerrero — who was born in Canada — would prefer to stick with Toronto. He has nothing but nice things to say about the Blue Jays organization and the city, but baseball is a business, and it's hard to trust Ross Atkins when it comes to getting a major deal across the finish line. Lest we forget, the Blue Jays effectively placed second for both Ohtani and Soto. Toronto has a habit of coming up just short.
New revelations about the scope of negotiations between the Blue Jays and Guerrero this offseason paint a damning portrait of Toronto's front office — and prove that Guerrero's days of numbered north of the border.
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Blue Jays never came close to signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to an extension this winter
Toronto's last, best offer to Guerrero before negotiations were halted last month was in the ballpark of $500 million, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That said, with significant deferrals worked in, the estimated "net present value" was estimated between $400 and $450 million.
That is a lot, obviously, but then again, Ohtani and Soto just eclipsed $700 million. Guerrero was always going to require something over the top to even consider extending with the Blue Jays. MLB seasons are inherently unpredictable, but the 25-year-old ranks as one of the very best offensive players in the sport. He was operating near an MVP level in 2024, slashing .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI.
It's fair to express concern over Guerrero's long-term outlook on defense, but he's going to anchor a contending lineup for the next decade. His ability to hit for both contact and power is matched by very few around the league, taking a page from his Hall of Fame father's book. Guerrero shouldn't have much trouble eclipsing $450 million in net value, especially if the traditional heavy spenders — both New York teams, Boston, etc. — decide to get in on the action.
There has been a lot of speculation as to which teams will actually pursue Guerrero, with the Red Sox and Yankees emerging as the logical favorites based on positional needs and financial wherewithal, but there should be no shortage of suitors for Guerrero. He's a special talent, and teams tend to come out of the woodwork when a generational force hits the open market. Think San Francisco. Think, hell, Philadelphia, or even Los Angeles. A lot of teams can justify a run at Guerrero, no matter the price point.
Maybe when the dust settles next winter, Guerrero ends up accepting a deal in the range of Toronto's final offer. Maybe the Blue Jays can even pull off a reunion. If Toronto wanted to security of locking down Guerrero before the season, however, they needed to come a bit stronger. Now the ball is in Guerrero's court, and there's no telling if Atkins and company have any real hope of getting it back.