Toronto Blue Jays ownership may have renewed optimism about signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a new contract – whether that be now or in free agency – but they ought to talk to their superstar first. Guerrero Jr. made headlines on Wednesday when discussing his own valuation, suggesting that he could top out at $700 million with a productive season and bottom out at $500 million were he to struggle. That is not how the world of MLB free agency works.
Guerrero Jr. is a four-time All-Star who had a 6.2 WAR last season – just 0.3 shy of his career-high. He has finished top-6 in AL MVP voting on two occasions, including in 2024. While his long-term position on the diamond is in flux, as he could project to more of a DH type in the years to come, there is no denying that at his best Guerrero Jr. is one of the most feared hitters in MLB. That is where most of his value comes from, and it's why some contender will pay him his worth next winter. That team might just not be the Blue Jays.
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Blue Jays ownership needs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to meet them halfway
Mark Shapiro remained confident in the Jays ability to re-sign Vladdy in a recent interview even though plenty of signs point to the contrary.
“…I guess my overarching feeling is one of optimism. I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome. Vlad wants to play his whole career as a Toronto Blue Jay. We want him to end his career in a Blue Jays uniform to be a true legacy player for the Toronto Blue Jays. … Could be before free agency, could be during free agency, but I’m optimistic we will sign him," Shapiro said, per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi.
However, Shapiro also pointed out that while Guerrero Jr. is a great player, great players alone do not sell hundreds of thousands of tickets, especially if they play on a bad team. Giving Guerrero Jr. upwards of $700 million would limit the money Toronto spends elsewhere, which is the biggest issue with his asking price. It is that loud message that Guerrero Jr. must hear if he wants to stay in Toronto, and thus far his own commentary suggests he's most interested in his own value, rather than playing on a Blue Jays title contender. He'd love to do both, but in this case he may not have that opportunity.
Shapiro is not Steve Cohen. Guerrero Jr. has also shown limited interest in a contract with deferred money like Shohei Ohtani's. This puts the Blue Jays between a rock and hard place entering the winter.