Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gave the Toronto Blue Jays a deadline until the night of February 17 to finalize a contract extension.
But really, no extension was ever really going to happen, and the Blue Jays only have themselves to blame.
Toronto’s leadership group, featuring Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins and Rogers Communications should have been ultra aggressive in attempting to extend Guerrero Jr. in the past. At 25, he’s established himself as one of the great hitters in baseball, and in six career seasons he has slashed .288/.363/.500 with an .863 OPS, 160 home runs and 507 RBI.
But by not being aggressive in attempting to extend Guerrero Jr., and by waiting until the early spring training deadline, the Blue Jays may have lost Guerrero.
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Blue Jays didn't do enough to keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
We don’t know what the numbers of the Blue Jays’ offers were. We don’t know what Guerrero’s asking price was. But what we do know is that after watching Juan Soto sign for $765 million in free agency this offseason, Guerrero Jr. surely saw and realized he will get a massive payday if he waits. And now, instead of just the Blue Jays bidding for his services, he’ll have 29 other potential suitors as well.
What will Guerrero Jr. command in free agency? He won’t touch Soto’s $765 million. But he’d perhaps be the most accomplished player to reach free agency not named Soto or Shohei Ohtani. He will be 26 as a free agent, and it’s why his eventual contract has a real chance of eclipsing $500 million.
What will his market look like? The Boston Red Sox have been heavily linked to the superstar slugger, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Guerrero Jr. has told friends that he’d be open to playing in Boston. The New York Yankees, fresh after losing Soto and having a long-term need at first base, will surely place a phone call. The New York Mets cannot be ruled out either, especially with Pete Alonso looming as an obvious candidate to opt-out after the 2025 season.
An open door in Toronto won't mean much for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
But yes, while Guerrero Jr. is set to become a free agent after this season, the door remains open for him to return to Toronto. The team refused to talk specifics about the negotiations, but Atkins told reporters that they extended a record-setting offer for the Blue Jays that would have also made Guerrero Jr. “one of the highest paid players” in baseball.
If the Blue Jays are out of the postseason race come the trade deadline, then the organization will have a franchise-altering decision to make: trade Guerrero Jr. and recoup some value or keep Guerrero Jr. and keep the slim possibility of him re-signing in Toronto alive.
They’ve long resisted the idea of trading Guerrero Jr., especially at last year's trade deadline when his value was immense. So it stands to believe that a trade would be unlikely and they’d attempt to hold onto him.
But it never had to reach this point. The Blue Jays could have been far more aggressive in the past in keeping Guerrero Jr. and signed him to what would have turned out to be a very team-friendly contract. Instead, it feels like Guerrero Jr. is headed into what very well could be his last season in Toronto.
The chase for one of the most coveted free agents in baseball history is under way.