The Toronto Blue Jays entered the offseason with seemingly one goal that they had to achieve. Sure, signing a mega-star like Juan Soto would've been nice. Improving the roster the way Ross Atkins has also would have been nice. The thing they had to accomplish was inking Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to an extension.
There is not much to like on this Jays roster, but Guerrero is the team's saving grace. He's a 25-year-old superstar who has received MVP votes in three of the last four years - finishing in the top six in the AL balloting twice in that span. He's the most valuable player in the organization by far, and, considering his age, one of the most valuable players in the sport.
That sheer fact is why extending Guerrero entering his final season was so crucial. Guerrero even gave the Jays a deadline date to get a deal done, and a number which would have gotten him to sign the dotted line. Unfortunately for Jays fans, Atkins and Co. refused to meet his lofty demands, and failed to ensure Guerrero would remain in Toronto long-term.
Their failure to extend Guerrero now does not mean he's a lock to depart after the year, but it sure makes it seem as if the odds of him leaving just skyrocketed. If the Jays were unwilling to pay him now when no teams are competing against them, what are the odds of them doing so in the winter when the 29 other teams can throw money his way?
There's no sugarcoating just how big of a blow this is for the Blue Jays. Without Guerrero, the Blue Jays franchise is in as poor of a position to win now and in the future as any in the sport. With that being said, Toronto's inability to get a deal done might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Guerrero for a couple of reasons.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wants to win, and the Blue Jays won't provide him a good chance to do that
When he spoke to the media on Tuesday, Guerrero revealed his ultimate goal - he wants to win the World Series.
"My dad played a lot of years, and he never won the World Series," Guerrero said. "And I always say my personal goal is to win a World Series and give the ring to my dad. So that's all I'm looking for."
Well, if he wants to win the World Series, why is staying in Toronto a good idea for his future? The Blue Jays are in a tough spot when it comes to competing now, and especially in the future.
First and foremost, this Jays roster, while improved, is still, what, a Wild Card team if everything breaks right? Remember, the Jays won 74 games in 2024. Adding the likes of Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Jeff Hoffman, and Andres Gimenez helps, undoubtedly, but are the Jays really better on paper than teams like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Baltimore Orioles in their own division? Are the Jays really better than several of the National League's elite?
If the Jays had a young core to build around that'd be one thing, but that is not the case. Four of their five projected starting pitchers are 30 years old or older with the lone exception, Bowden Francis, having just 13 starts under his belt as a 28-year-old. Their best hitter locked in past the 2025 season is Santander, a 30-year-old. Their four best relievers are all over the age of 30. This team is fairly old, and still not good enough to win right now.
To make matters worse, the Jays have one of the worst farm systems in the sport. Baseball America rates them 23rd overall, and their top prospect, Ricky Tiedemann, has had a lot of trouble staying on the field.
Maybe if the Jays had more luck in free agency they could convince Guerrero that they can compete that way, but from Shohei Ohtani, to Juan Soto, to Roki Sasaki, to Pete Alonso, they've failed as much as any team on the open market.
The Jays are not contenders now with Guerrero, and will only get worse as the years go by, especially if the organization continues to express confidence in the likes of Atkins, John Shapiro, and John Schneider.
Other contenders will value Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more than the Blue Jays do
As we all know, while winning is a priority, free agency is mostly about money. The Jays had their chance to show Guerrero just how important they thought he was to their franchise. Not only did they fail to meet his asking price, Guerrero believes they were not even close. Well, if the Jays won't take paying him seriously, chances are, a team out there will.
Guerrero, if we're being honest, was doing the Jays a massive favor. Allowing them to negotiate by themselves was a blessing that the Jays should have taken and run with. It greatly benefits Guerrero financially to take this to free agency.
The New York Mets just gave Juan Soto a 15-year, $765 million deal this offseason. Additional incentives bring his earning potential upwards of $800 million. Entering the offseason, it was assumed Soto would break $500 million, but not many thought he'd even eclipse $600 million - let alone well above $700 million. Guerrero, being one year older than Soto, not as good as Soto, and playing arguably the least valuable position in the sport, will not make near what Soto did, but he will still fetch a very pretty penny, especially if he has another MVP-caliber year.
The reason Soto got so much more than initially projected is because he had several big market teams bidding against each other. In free agency, there's a good chance teams like the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and New York Yankees, at the very least, will be heavily involved in the Guerrero sweepstakes alongside the Blue Jays. Guerrero might have been searching for, say, $500 million from Toronto now, but if he has another great year and has several interested suitors, he might get offers for potentially $600 million. Who knows what his ceiling is if we're being honest? It isn't so often that a 26-year-old superstar enters free agency.
Entering free agency not only gives Guerrero a chance to join a contender, but if he has another outstanding year, he might earn even more money than he would have had the Jays met whatever his extension asking price was. Even if, for whatever reason, Guerrero really wants to remain in Toronto, he will likely earn more money from them by testing the market than he would have in an extension.
There's no disputing who wins and loses here. The Blue Jays are clear losers, failing to nail down the franchise's cornerstone while Guerrero, officially destined for free agency and setting himself up for an outstanding future, is a clear winner.