MLB Power Rankings: 4 early favorites to land Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter

The Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are trending apart.

With a hard deadline to negotiate an extension before Tuesday's first full-squad spring training workout, Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays front office could not agree to terms with the All-Star corner infielder. That sets up Guerrero to test free agency next winter, regardless of how the Blue Jays handle his immediate future.

It will be interesting to see if Toronto dangles him in trades, as the Blue Jays ought to recoup something before Guerrero leaves them empty-handed. That said, Guerrero still claims to desire a long-term union with the Blue Jays, and we know Toronto's front office has some spending power, even if it can't always find someone to take their money. There's a good chance Guerrero sticks around so Toronto can attempt to re-sign him in the offseason.

That feels ill-fated, but who am I to tell Atkins how to do his job? Toronto's last couple offseasons have boiled down to a long line of successive failures, but hey, maybe Anthony Santander and Max Scherzer do the trick. The Blue Jays aren't completely devoid of talent. Guerrero is every bit an MVP candidate. You can never rule out last-second magic. It's what makes baseball such a wonderful sport.

As Guerrero gears up for a competitive bidding war, however, here are the teams best situated to sign him.

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4. Toronto Blue Jays

Never say never!

Even after the two sides failed to agree to terms on an extension, Guerrero expressed his desire to remain a "Blue Jay for life."

Toronto was pretty much second-place in bidding wars for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, so we might not even be giving them the necessary credit here. Guerrero is already in the building. He was born in Canada and he plainly loves it in Toronto. That said, if the Blue Jays were serious about keeping Guerrero, one has to think this deal would've been hammered out before spring training. It won't get easier with every major MLB market gunning for his services.

Guerrero also told reporters he wants "a winning team." Unfortunately, the Blue Jays don't really fit the bill right now. Toronto is not a bad team, but Guerrero presumably wants to contend for a World Series. There are several more glamorous markets with much better title odds than Toronto. It's just a fact. If Guerrero wants to cash in and win at the highest level, but the Blue Jays aren't his best option.

Not inking Guerrero to an extension and not trading him would be a huge leap of faith for Ross Atkins and the Toronto front office. The Blue Jays are playing with fire. In the end, though, it's hard not to feel like Guerrero wants this outcome at the end of the day. So, again, never say never.

3. New York Yankees

Guerrero famously once said he would never play for the New York Yankees, "not even [when he's] dead."

"It goes back with my family. That's my decision, and I will never change that."

He later walked those comments back, as one in line for generational wealth tends to do. If the Yankees come with a strong offer to put Guerrero in pinstripes, the 25-year-old is sure to consider it. New York has all the cachet of baseball's biggest market and a long history of winning. Their 2024 World Series appearance is another feather in an illustrious cap, and it's proof that New York can win at the highest level. Perhaps they're a single piece away from glory after losing Juan Soto, a hole Guerrero can patch up.

New York has left first base open long term. Paul Goldschmidt still has enough left in the tank for an impact 2025 campaign, but the Yankees are very deliberately maintaining optionality in hopes of luring a generational talent like Guerrero to the Bronx. It's hard to pass up the chance to hit in front of Aaron Judge for the next several years. We know how much Judge did for Soto.

It's hard to call the Yankees favorites due to Guerrero's past comments — even after he rescinded his statement, you don't say something like that without good reason. That said, money makes folks do funny things. If the Yankees put together the best offer and give Guerrero the best chance to win a World Series, there's a decent chance he winds up with that 'NY' on his cap.

2. New York Mets

This offseason was a reminder of how much power Steve Cohen wields as MLB's richest owner. When he wants a player, it's hard to keep the New York Mets out of the driver's seat. All signs pointed to Juan Soto preferring a reunion in the Bronx. He also plainly liked what Boston and Toronto had to offer. In the end, though, it was Cohen's checkbook and his accommodating personality that led to Soto signing a historic $765 million contract in Queens.

Pete Alonso re-signed with the Mets this winter, but he's probably going to opt out of his contract just in time for Guerrero to slot into the depth chart at first base. The Mets aren't going to run out of money. After an impressive and unexpected NLCS run, New York is all-in. Soto confirms it. This team will spend the next decade-plus attempting to stack World Series dubs in a highly competitive National League. If any team can financially keep pace with the endlessly stacked Dodgers, it's the Mets.

Opening games with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Vladdy Jr. is a compelling answer to LA's gauntlet of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. New York would be trending toward the most explosive offense in baseball. Guerrero and Soto are more than live-wire sluggers; they're highly disciplined and efficient hitters who can work the entire plate and put tremendous strain on an opposing pitcher.

Do not count out the Mets. If New York is truly willing to run up the tab after the Soto signing, Guerrero could very well end up in Queens.

1. Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are in a bit of turmoil after signing Alex Bregman to play third base, a position once promised to Rafael Devers. Only in Boston can their first major free agent splash in years age so poorly, so quickly. If the Red Sox can get all their ducks in a row, Bregman still figures to render an immediate impact offensively. He's a great addition on paper, and the Red Sox are finally trending up in the AL East.

Guerrero can put them over the top.

It feels a bit odd to rank the Red Sox ahead of either New York teams in a free agency bidding war, but Guerrero has made his preferences known. He has told friends he'd love to play in Boston. Now the Red Sox just need to come through with a competitive offer. Craig Breslow's committed approach to the Juan Soto sweepstakes this winter signals that Boston could really put up a fight for Guerrero.

If Guerrero still harbors a secret hatred for the Yankees, there isn't a better club to play for than Boston. That ballpark is also perfectly engineered to Guerrero's swing. He has a career 1.060 OPS at Fenway, with 10 home runs and 44 RBI across 45 games. Bregman has experienced a similarly transcendent output when playing in Boston. If the Red Sox stack a couple elite right-handed bats to complement their barrage of hard-hitting lefties, the AL looks awfully winnable.

So, the Red Sox are real favorites here. Maybe this all looks silly when Steve Cohen lines up $800 million and a lifetime luxury suite at Citi Field, but if the Red Sox put up the necessary capital, there's reason to believe Guerrero will head on over to Beantown.