Broncos playoff scenarios: How Denver clinches and likely AFC Wild Card round matchup

The Denver Broncos path to the postseason isn't all that complicated, but their opponent in Week 18 is. Denver plays the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, and while defeating their rival should be slightly easier due to an influx of backup-caliber players into the starting lineup rather than, say, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, KC's second unit is no slouch.

Carson Wentz, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, will get the start instead of Mahomes. Wentz has a ton of talent, as he won All-Pro honors and a Super Bowl (while injured) as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. His career went into a downward spiral shortly thereafter, and Wentz can be turnover-prone, but the talent remains. Just ask Sean Payton.

“He’s in this league for a reason. He’s big, and he’s strong. He was a first-round draft pick," Payton said of Wentz on Wednesday. "We spoke during the offseason a little bit with him and his agents. It’s the player but it’s also everything around it and understanding what they’re trying to do.”

The 32-year-old is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, and with a good outing on Sunday could be in line to start with a QB-needy team next season. The Broncos have plenty to worry about.

Broncos playoff scenarios with a win on Sunday against the Chiefs

The formula for Denver is simple – they must win on Sunday to make the NFL Playoffs. If they lose, the Broncos open a door for the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals to earn the No. 7 seed, thus making the postseason as the final AFC Wild Card team.

The Bengals defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night, thus applying pressure on the Bengals and Dolphins. Miami has a favorable game against the New York Jets, though Aaron Rodgers could play spoiler. Tyler Huntley should get the start for Miami.

Denver Broncos AFC Wild Card matchup: Who will Denver play?

If the Broncos clinch, that means they'll hold the No. 7 seed in the AFC Playoffs. Denver will then face the No. 2 seed in the AFC, which is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are the only NFL team to defeat the Chiefs this season, and have won three straight games heading into their Week 18 test against the New England Patriots. Buffalo is expected to play Josh Allen for a few drives rather than sit him entirely. Meanwhile, the Patriots would actually benefit greatly with a loss, as they'd lock up the first pick in the NFL Draft.

The Bills and Broncos last played in 2023, with Denver defeating Buffalo, 24-22.