Buccaneers playoff scenarios: What's at stake win or lose in Week 17 vs. CAR

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a narrow 26-24 defeat against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, dropping them out of a playoff seed with just two games to go. Although the Atlanta Falcons surpassed Tampa Bay for the NFC South lead, the Buccaneers hopes of extending their season aren’t dead just yet.

Tampa Bay currently holds a 8-7 record, which gives them two potential paths to the playoffs — they can either overtake the Washington Commanders for the final NFC Wild Card spot, or they can surpass the Falcons for the division title.

Since the Commanders have a 10-7 record, the Buccaneers would need Washington to lose both their remaining games to have a shot at the No. 7 seed. The most likely — and most preferable — path to the playoffs is through the division.

Buccaneers can’t afford any more losses to make playoffs

If the Buccaneers want to keep those hopes alive, they’ll have to start by defeating the Carolina Panthers in their Week 17 matchup on Sunday. Tampa Bay currently holds the NFC’s No. 8 seed, and they can’t afford another loss in the final two weeks of the season.

The Buccaneers still have a 54 percent playoff probability, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That figure would improve to 65 percent with a victory on Sunday. If the Buccaneers lose, their playoff chances would slip to just 12 percent. 

Despite holding the same record, the Falcons currently hold the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay due to their head-to-head victories. Although the Buccaneers would need the Falcons to lose one of their two final games of the season, that’s certainly a possibility.

The Falcons secured two consecutive wins against two of the worst teams in football — the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders — to take the division lead. Although that’s given Atlanta the lead for the division, their decision to start rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. could result in some unforced offensive errors over the next two games. 

Atlanta will face the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football in Week 17, and it’s not a game they’ll be favored to win. If Atlanta manages to win, Tampa Bay would need the Panthers to defeat Atlanta in Week 18.

Regardless, the Buccaneers can no longer afford to lose any game themselves, and their two remaining divisional contests won’t be easy.