Buccaneers playoff scenarios: How Tampa Bay can clinch and who they'll play next

Just win and you are in. It is plain and simple for the 9-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As long as they take care of business vs. the reeling New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay will win the NFC South for the fourth year in a row. That would put them back in the NFC playoffs for the fifth season in a row as well. Tampa Bay can also win the division with an Atlanta Falcons' home loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

Where things stand now, the only way the Buccaneers do not make the playoffs is if they were to somehow lose to the Saints and for the Falcons to beat the Panthers. This is because Atlanta completed the season sweep of the Buccaneers earlier in the season. Tampa Bay is only getting in as the NFC South winner, but they could be as high as the No. 3 seed. They are likely getting the No. 4.

This is because with a win over the Saints and a Los Angeles Rams loss to the Seattle Seahawks, they would earn the No. 3 seed because they would have a better conference record over the NFC West champion. If the Buccaneers make the playoffs, they would be playing one of four teams in the first round: The Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, or the Washington Commanders.

Now that we know how the Buccaneers can make the playoff, let's figure out who they could face.

How Tampa Bay Buccaneers can make playoffs and who all they could face

The most likely outcome for the Buccaneers would be to win the NFC South and get the No. 4 seed because the Rams took care of business vs. the Seahawks. That would mean the Buccaneers would host the No. 5 seed in the NFC Wild Card Round. Their first-round opponent would be the loser of Sunday Night Football between the Lions and the Vikings. The winner would get the first-round bye.

If the Buccaneers make the by beating the Saints to finish at 10-7, they could earn the No. 3 seed if the Rams were to lose to the Seahawks. As stated above, they would win the tiebreaker over the Rams because of having a better conference record. They would then host either Green Bay or Washington in the No. 3 vs. No. 6. The Packers and Commanders have the same record going in.

Currently, the Commanders own the tiebreaker over the Packers because of having a better record in conference play. A Washington win over the Dallas Cowboys or a Packers loss to the Chicago Bears would get Washington the No. 6 seed. Washington is the more likely of the two to face Tampa Bay in the first round in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup. Now let me discuss first-round playoff probability here.

With Detroit being a slight favorite over Minnesota, the most likely first-round matchup for the Buccaneers would be the Vikings as the No. 4 vs. No. 5. Since those teams are relatively evenly matched, I would say the next most likely playoff matchup for the Buccaneers should they qualify is hosting Detroit in the No. 4 vs. No. 5. After that, we would make our way to the No. 3 vs. No. 6 games.

After Minnesota and Detroit, the next most likely matchup for the Buccaneers in the first round would be Washington because the Commanders own the tiebreaker over Green Bay. In the least likely potential first-round matchup for the Buccaneers, it would have to be Tampa Bay hosting the Packers in the No. 3 vs. No. 6. In order, it would probably be Minnesota, Detroit, Washington and Green Bay.

The only thing I know for certain is if Tampa Bay gets in, it would only be doing so as a division winner.