Try as they might to deny it, the Milwaukee Bucks are entering the Summer of Giannis.
On Monday, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that "for the first time in his career," Bucks star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo "is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee or playing elsewhere." He added that the Greek Freak's representatives are expected to meet with the Bucks "to discuss the future" sometime this offseason, although Charania did note that Antetokounmpo "has not made any firm decisions on his Bucks future."
During a recent appearance on the ALL NBA Podcast, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein said "Giannis himself does not want to go to the Bucks and say, 'trade me.'" That echoes what Antetokounmpo told Greek reporters Vassilis Skountis and Rigas Dardalis of COSMOTE TV in February (via EuroHoops.net).
"I don't think that I would ever text (and ask for a trade)," he said. "I am not this kind of guy. They would have to kick me out."
The Bucks might be hoping that plays out. Stein said that Antetokounmpo is "so important to them financially" that they likely won't trade him "unless he pushes it."
"The whole league is on edge waiting to see will Giannis' representatives go to the Bucks and say, 'It's time, move us, hold the auction and start over,'" Stein said prior to the Charania report. "I don't think the Bucks want to do that. You can make the case that they should want to do that, that they should see, 'Let's go out and get the largest haul that we can get back for Giannis.' But I don't think the Bucks are there."
They might want to get there soon. The longer they wait, the more they risk losing leverage over the entire trade process.
Dame experience should be their guide
A similar situation played out with now-Bucks guard Damian Lillard over the past half-decade. The Bucks should use that as their guide of how to approach this situation.
Like Giannis, Lillard was a megastar in a small market that has zero hope of attracting such a player in free agency. He helped guide the Blazers to the 2019 Western Conference Finals, but they lost in the first round of the playoffs the ensuing two years and then missed the playoffs entirely in both 2021-22 and 2022-23. By that point, even Mr. Faithful To The Grind himself reached his breaking point and requested a trade.
Lillard's agent, Aaron Goodwin, began telling reporters that Lillard wanted the Blazers to trade him to the Miami Heat. That seemingly gave Miami leverage over Portland, which led to a grueling, months-long standoff. Eventually, Lillard widened his list of acceptable destinations, and the Bucks swooped in to acquire him.
Antetokounmpo has only two guaranteed years left on his contract before a $62.8 million player option in 2027-28 that he could reasonably decline. (His max salary as a free agent that summer could be as high as $65.5 million.) If he begins leaking which teams he would or wouldn't be willing to re-sign with, those in the latter camp might not be willing to sell the farm for a possible two-year rental.
The timing of Charania's report Monday—roughly 12 hours before the 2025 NBA draft lottery—was likely no coincidence. This appears to be Giannis' camp soft-launching a trade request. Neither he nor the Bucks want to be seen as the bad guy by making the first move, so they're stuck in an awkward Mexican standoff for now.
It's easy to see why the Bucks are reluctant to trade Antetokounmpo. He led them to their first NBA championship in 50 years and has been their best player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the early 1970s. There's never a good time to trade a once-in-a-generation star, but it's a particularly tough sell when you don't control your first-round picks over the next six drafts.
Financial considerations are likely at play as well, as Stein alluded to. Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel recently shared this anecdote about Antetokounmpo and team president Peter Feigin.
"We joke around with one another. Every single time he sees me, he tells me, ‘look at me. I’m the captain now.’ OK, you're the captain, but I'm the motherf---ing ship. If I don’t move, we don’t move," Antetokounmpo said with a big laugh.
"We just go back and forth. ‘Like, Peter, how much money did he make today in this playoff game? Couple of millions of dollars, right? So zip it!’ We just joke around."
Maintaining the status quo would be the easy way out for the Bucks. The Achilles tear that Lillard suffered in the playoffs all but ended their 2025-26 championship hopes before they even began, but as long as the Bucks have Antetokounmpo around, they'll still have a marquee attraction to draw in fans.
However, the Greek Freak has repeatedly said that he's focused on winning another championship, which appears to be an increasingly long shot in Milwaukee.
"I don't want to stay in my comfort zone," Antetokounmpo told Nickel earlier this year. "I want to be challenged. And if the challenge is here, which it is right now—we have a real challenge, people don't respect us, we have good group, it's good. But we might not have a challenge one day. We might be rebuilding as a team, or we might not be chasing nothing.
"So, will my individual athlete be more important than the championship? This is a thing that maybe some players make a mistake. They stay in the place maybe too long."
It's clear that Antetokounmpo will at least consider moving on if he doesn't see a path back to championship contention in Milwaukee. If the Bucks can't sell him on next season being a gap year, as Eric Nehm of The Athletic proposed Monday, he might inch closer toward a formal trade request. At that point, they'll potentially lose control over the situation.
If Antetokounmpo does want out of Milwaukee, the Bucks should at least ask him to stay quiet about it for now. Speculation about his future is already destined to be a media circus this offseason. As soon as he issues a formal trade request, they'll lose any semblance of control over the process, which could raise the chances of a drawn-out standoff.
Granted, Antetokounmpo is such a singular talent that multiple teams should still be willing to gamble on him even if they have no assurances of him staying there beyond 2027. The Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs in particular all have the right combination of promising young cores and draft picks to entice Milwaukee into hearing them out. Whatever they have left after the trade could help convince the Greek Freak to stick around long term.
The Spurs, who won the No. 2 overall pick in Monday's NBA draft lottery, could be a particularly enticing partner. Would they be willing to offer that pick and/or reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle? If so, they have the salary-matching contracts (Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Harrison Barnes) to construct a workable framework that would give Milwaukee some semblance of hope for the future.
The Bucks could wait until the trade deadline or even next offseason to entertain Antetokounmpo trade talks. But the longer they wait, the closer he'll be to potentially becoming a free agent, which might reduce how much teams are willing to give up.
It's a tough pill to swallow, but now is the right time for the Bucks to move Antetokounmpo. They have zero hope for the future between Lillard's injury and the volume of draft picks they've traded away. Flipping the Greek Freak will give them a head start on their rebuild, particularly if they're able to loop the New Orleans Pelicans in and get control of their 2026 and 2027 first-rounders back.
Either way, they're only delaying the inevitable if they wait.