CFP Bracketology: How does Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?

The College Football Playoff wasn’t too kind to Iowa State in the first CFP rankings of the 2024 season. To be fair, a one-point loss to Texas Tech just before the rankings went live didn’t help their case either. 

The Cyclones best chance to make the College Football Playoff is to win out and play for a Big 12 Championship. Their schedule is in their favor, save for their final game of the season against No.19 Kansas State. 

The Wildcats are pretty much eliminated from the playoff so they could, if nothing more, love to play spoiler for the Cyclones. 

BYU is pretty much a lock in the College Football Playoff barring any crazy late-season drama. They have the easiest remaining schedule of any Big 12 team in contention.

Colorado could storm into the playoff but similar to Iowa State, an at-large bid is most likely out of question. They’d need to play in the Big 12 title game and win to get in. 

How does Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?

The most important game of the season for Iowa State is the final game of the season. While every game the rest of the way is a College Football Playoff elimination game, a loss to Kansas State would probably knock them out of the conference championship game. 

The only other game they’d have to be careful with is a game against Cincinnati. The Bearcats are a couple plays away from having just one loss to Colorado. They have one-possession losses to Texas Tech and Pitt. They also managed to come back against Colorado. 

That should be a game the Cyclones can’t overlook. Outside of that, Houston is down this year and Kansas hasn’t quite lived up to the preseason hype. 

An at-large bid into the playoff is virtually impossible for Iowa State. Even if the teams ahead of them lose, I don’t think the committee gives them a chance without a conference title. Iowa State hasn’t played any big teams. 

Its best win so far is against Iowa, who was ranked No. 21 at the time. The Hawkeyes have three losses and are no longer ranked. It’s a hard sell, but I guess not completely out of the question. 

And with the way the SEC is scheduled this season, even if a team like Texas A&M, LSU or even Alabama loses, their wins are better than Iowa State’s. 

The Cyclones have a lot of work to do to get in. First and foremost, they need to win out and honestly convincingly beat Kansas State. They’d also need to win the Big 12 Championship game. The Big 12 won’t have more than one team in unless BYU loses. It’s a long shot, but Iowa State can crash the 12-team College Football Playoff.