Champions League shocker: 5 massive clubs in serious trouble
By Matt Purdue
We’re halfway through the new UEFA Champions League (UCL) “league phase” and already the results have been shocking.
Coming into the 2024-25 season, UEFA ditched the traditional group-stage format for the first round of the UCL in favor of a scheme that looks like a Super League. All 36 teams have been thrown together into one pool, with each club playing eight matches.
Now listen carefully because this is key: Under this new format, the top eight teams in the table at the end of the league phase earn automatic berths into the knockout phase.
This leaves teams finishing ninth through 16th to play another two games against the teams finishing 17th through 24th. They will fight it out in a home-and-home series for a right to join the top eight teams in the 16-team knockout phase.
Still with us? If yes, it becomes abundantly clear how vitally important it is to finish among the top eight and be able to skip an extra two-game tie. Add to that the fact that these playoff matches will likely be held in February when teams are also playing important league cup games, and it becomes even more important for them to jump the queue and place top eight.
Which clubs are on the bubble?
Now, getting back to the shock results so far. Some of the richest and most massive clubs in Europe find themselves on the outside looking in at the top eight. Unless they can reverse the curse in their final four matches, their tens of millions of supporters will be sweating bullets hoping they can win a two-legged tie.
And we all know in a two-legged tie, anything can happen — and it usually does.
Which teams are on the bubble? Below we look at five of the world’s largest clubs that are feeling nervous, how they got here and their chances of climbing into the all-important top eight.
The Frantic Five
Manchester City
Current status: 10th place on 7 points
How they got here
Man City won the English Premier League last season and advanced to the UCL quarterfinals, where they lost to eventual champions Real Madrid on penalties.
In this season’s UCL, they got off to a rocky start, drawing 0-0 at home to Inter. City wasted numerous opportunities, with İlkay Gundogan missing two headers in the closing seconds. They outshot Inter 22-13 and recorded an xG of 2.35 to Inter’s 0.75, but still came up empty.
They won their next two matches by a combined 9-0 before what’s come to be known as the Sporting Disaster. Sporting Lisbon embarrassed City 4-1 on Nov. 5. Erling Haaland failed to convert a penalty kick, and Viktor Gyokares scored a hat trick for Sporting as they turned a 1-1 halftime draw into a rout.
Speaking of Haaland, he’s been uncharacteristically off in the league phase. His three goals have come at the expense of Sparta Praha and Slovan.
Against Inter, he was practically invisible with just one shot on target. Against Sporting, he managed only three shots on goal. His PK hit the crossbar, and his other two shots on target were saved.
Will the Mighty Thor find his mojo in time to help City move up the table?
What’s next for City
- Nov. 26 vs. Feyenoord
- Dec. 11 at Juventus
- Jan. 22 at PSG
- Jan. 29 vs. Brugge
Fortunately for the Cityzens, they face only one team that’s been competitive in the UCL: 11th-place Juventus. That match promises to be a titanic clash in the fight for a top-eight spot.
Probability of finishing in the top eight: 75 percent
Juventus
Current status: 11th place on 7 points
How they got here
We’re still not sure how Juventus is even in the UCL this season after having been banned from European competition in 2023-24 for breaching financial regulations. Just two months ago, Juve reported a loss of nearly €200 million for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
But UEFA is UEFA, so apparently clubs can continue to spend well beyond their means and still can play in the UCL.
On the pitch, The Old Lady defeated Leipzig 3-2 in early October despite Michele DiGregorio earning a red card at 59’. Down a man, Juve staged a dramatic comeback from a 2-1 deficit with goals by Dusan Vlahovic and Francisco Conceicao (in the 82nd minute) to win.
Then the wheels fell off.
Juve collapsed against Stuttgart 1-0 after Danilo was sent off in the 84th minute. Enzo Millot’s penalty kick was saved at 86’, setting the stage for Stuttgart’s El Bilal Toure to score the match winner at 92’.
Against Lille on Nov. 5, Juve could only manage a draw. Down 1-0 at halftime, Vlahovic scored to level things at 60’. The Italians dominated the rest of the second half, but could not break through.
What’s next for Juventus
- Nov. 27 at Aston Villa
- Dec. 11 vs. Man City
- Jan. 21 at Brugge
- Jan. 29 vs. Benfica
Juventus must face two clubs among the top 10 in the UCL table. If they hope to avoid a playoff in the next round, they need to get a result against Villa and City.
Probability of finishing in the top eight: 45 percent
Real Madrid
Current status: 11th place on 7 points
How they got here
After beating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in last season’s UCL final for the club’s 15th European championship, this campaign has been a bucket of cold water to the face.
With welcoming Kylian Mbappe on a free transfer and buying Endrick for €47.5 million, Los Blancos were expected to dominate opponents. Yet they’ve stumbled in the Champions League.
Yes, they dominated Dortmund, 5-2, on Oct. 22, and beat Stuttgart 3-1. But back on Oct. 4, they were tripped up by Lille 1-0 to end their 36-game unbeaten run.
They managed only seven shots (to Lille’s 12) and recorded an xG of just 1.19 (to Lille’s 2.18). As if that wasn’t embarrassing enough, Lille’s goal came on a PK following Eduardo Camavinga’s silly handball in front of goal.
A month later against Milan, Real Madrid lost 3-1 at the Bernabeu. With the score level at 1-1, Los Blancos’ defenders mainly stood around as Christian Pulisic sliced through them and slipped the ball to Rafael Leao. His shot was saved, but Alvaro Morata ran in untouched to score on the rebound to make it 2-1. Real Madrid’s defense was equally dreadful on Milan’s third goal.
What’s next for Real Madrid?
- Nov. 27 at Liverpool
- Dec. 10 at Atalanta
- Jan. 22 vs. RB Salzburg
- Jan. 29 at Brest
Real Madrid must find a way to successfully run the gauntlet if they hope to finish top eight. Three of their four future opponents sit among the top nine teams in the table, including leader Liverpool, and Los Blancos must travel to face all of them. Buena suerte.
Probability of finishing in the top eight: 25 percent
Bayern Munich
Current status: 17th place on 6 points
How they got here
After getting knocked out of last season’s UCL in a thrilling semifinal tie with Real Madrid, Bayern made moves to be even more competitive this campaign.
Besides bringing in Vincent Kompany to manage the side, Die Roten purchased right-winger Michael Olise from Crystal Palace, defensive midfielder Joao Palhinha from Fulham and center-back Hiroki Ito from Stuttgart.
So far, the new-look Bayern have stumbled in the UCL. Yes, they romped over Dinamo (9-2) and squeaked by Benfica (1-0). But those victories have been offset by losses to Barcelona (4-1) and Aston Villa (1-0).
The Barca match turned into the Raphinia show, with the Brazilian grabbing a hat trick.
Against Villa, Bayern dominated the stat sheet. They outshot Villa 17-5, but could not find the net. Jhon Duran scored one of the sweetest breakaway goals you’ll ever see, and Villans keeper Emiliano Martinez made seven saves — notably knocking away Harry Kane’s header the 96th minute.
In fact, Bayern talisman Kane has been relatively quiet in the UCL. He scored four times in the win over Dinamo, but has just one goal and one assist in his other three starts.
What’s next for Bayern?
- Nov. 26 vs. PSG
- Dec. 10 at Shaktar
- Jan. 22 at Feyenoord
- Jan. 29 vs. Slovan
Among the clubs on this list, Die Roten have the easiest path to earning points. None of their opponents are performing well in the UCL so far. If Kane can get back on track, there’s no reason Bayern can’t come away from these four matches with at least nine points.
Probability of finishing in the top eight: 50 percent
PSG
Current status: 25th place on 4 points
How they got here
It seems almost disingenuous to include PSG on this list. After all, this club faces the dual challenges of moving on from Mbappe, their all-time leading scorer and integrating one of the youngest sides in the UCL.
For example, in their last match against Atletico Madrid on Nov. 6, the average age of Les Parisiens’ starting XI was just 24.5 years. Atletico’s was 28.2
PSG actually played well in a 2-1 defeat. They dominated possession and outshot Atletico 22-4, launching one attack after another. But Atletico keeper Jan Oblak made eight saves and substitute striker Angel Correra broke every PSG heart, scoring with the last kick of the match.
PSG also lost to Arsenal, 2-0.
Their four points came from a 1-1 draw with PSV and a 1-0 win over Girona that arrived in the unlikeliest way. Les Parisiens squandered at least a half-dozen chances and seemed destined for a scoreless draw until, in the 90th minute, Nuno Mendes crossed a ball that deflected off a Girona defender’s foot and sailed through the legs of his keeper for the PSG victory.
What’s next for PSG?
- Nov. 26 at Bayern
- Dec. 10 at RB Salzburg
- Jan. 22 vs. Man City
- Jan. 29 at Stuttgart
The schedule-makers have done PSG no favors, sending them traveling for three of their four matches. Can they somehow earn six points against RB Salzburg and Stuttgart, then hope to turn the tables on at least one of Bayern and Man City? Not likely.
Probability of finishing in the top eight: 10 percent