CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks: Sleepers, One-and-done and the one favorite we’re avoiding at TPC Craig Ranch

It certainly feels like a bit of an exhale heading to the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson on the PGA Tour this week after the hectic and tiresome PGA Championship with Aaron Rai emerging with his first major championship. But as we head to TPC Craig Ranch this week, the lesser field offers a fun opportunity to take some shots.

We'll take some shots, but our top outright pick this week remains Brooks Koepka (+2500) given everything he's showing. And we also have another prediction for Koepka this week as well with TPC Craig Ranch having undergone some renovations and with rain in the forecast. We're breaking it all down with sleepers, favorite picks, a favorite to avoid and, of course, a One-and-Done selection for the week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Favorite play at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Brooks Koepka Top 10 incl. ties +225 (BetMGM)

Because his putter has led to some uninspiring finishes of late, you might not be intrigued by Brooks Koepka this week. That's not me. Not only is he my favorite outright pick this week, but I also like for him to finish well regardless based on the form he's been displaying and how that could match up for the test that will be before him this week — namely, potentially mitigating the putting woes.

Koepka's ball-striking has been far better than you realize beause of the finishes. He's 25th in driving distance and second in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, while also ranking ninth in proximity from 200-225 yards out, a key range this week. Oh, and he also happens to lead the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage despite the fact that he's been putting so horribly over the past couple of months.

But with rain in the forecast all week at TPC Craig Ranch, that should give Koepka, first, the opportunity to get even more out of his elite approach play right now and attack flags time and again. More than that, wet greens should be slower and help to battle some of the putting issues of late. I think it all lines up for Koepka to at least get a Top 10 this week, if not the outright win.

Sleepers and dark horses at TPC Craig Ranch

Blades Brown +8000 (DraftKings)

It feels like we might be on the cusp of a bonafide breakout from 18-year-old Blades Brown. In his last six starts between the Korn Ferry Tour and the PGA Tour, Brown has reeled off: third (KFT), MC (KFT), runner-up (KFT), T26 (Zurich), T9 (Myrtle Beach) and T16 (KFT). He's been in some tremendous form and the numbers back that up as well. More importantly, the numbers match up nicely for a likely birdie fest this week at TPC Craig Ranch.

Over the last 24 rounds, Brown is ninth in SG: Approach and second in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage. I'm targeting guys who can attack flags on a wet golf course that's also been shortened a bit from recent years, and Brown seems to fit the bill. Maybe a win at 18 years old is still too aggressive, but at his current odds, there is value for him to simply finish well this week in an event that seemingly is coming at the right time for the youngster.

Best way to play Brown: Top 20 incl. ties +250 (BetMGM)

Jhonattan Vegas +16000 (DraftKings)

For starters, you have to take a look at Jhonny Vegas simply based on his history at TPC Craig Ranch in recent years. He put forth a stellar T13 showing while losing strokes on approach last year, and was T9 in this tournament in 2021. But beyond that (and this will sound mildly hypocritical when we talk about our big fade of the week), I'm trying to beat the crowd to Vegas based on what he showed at the PGA Championship last week.

Vegas gained a ridiculous 11.099 strokes tee-to-green at Aronimink last week. However, it was a disastrous putting week that led to a T44. Moreover, he's lost strokes tee-to-green in his previous four events, and his only finish inside the Top 50 since the start of April was at the PGA. But with his course history and a spike in tee-to-green play, perhaps this is getting in early on someone trending in the right direction. However, I prefer a safer Top 40 or Top 20 play rather than outright, though I do like a sprinkle there as well.

Best way to play Vegas: Top 40 incl. ties +125 (BetMGM)

Favorite I'm fading this week at CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Jordan Spieth +1750 (DraftKings)

Considering that we've seen Jordan Spieth showing signs of life and combining that with him having a stellar history at TPC Craig Ranch (fourth last year, runner-up in 2022, T9 in 2021), it stands to reason why he has the third-lowest odds to win this week behind only Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim. At the same time, I'm just not buying it, especially at that price.

For one, the putter just hasn't been reliable. While I tend to downplay putting overall, for Spieth, that should be a weapon for him, but he's lost strokes on the greens in four of his last six events, including 3.257 last week at the PGA. And on that note, while he gained an impressive 9.742 strokes tee-to-green at Aronimink, he'd lost strokes on approach and around the greens in three of the four previous weeks.

If he was sitting more in the mid-tier on the odds board, I might be willing to take the PGA as a positive sign. But as one of the favorites this week, I just can't get behind Spieth when there's not enough trend or form leading into this tournament.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson One and Done pick

Brooks Koepka

It's pretty simple — I'm all over Koepka in every facet possible this week with how I think he should be able to score this week and with all of the signs coming into the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. While I do think there's a chance that he starts to round even more into form that would make him a potential One and Done option at a bigger event later in the year, perhaps at a major as well, I ultimately will probably be looking for other options at those junctures and rolling with Koepka this week.

Having said that, this is a good week to take a swing on a longshot, so our two sleeper picks this week are also options to consider as well.

Other options to consider: Blades Brown, Jhonattan Vegas

One massive longshot to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Karl Vilips +18000 (DraftKings)

Vilips is fascinating to me coming into this week. The 24-year-old has delivered a mixed bag of results overall this season, but might be trending decisively in the right direction. You can see that in the stats, too, as Vilips comes in checking two huge boxes for this week, ranking 12th in SG: Approach and sixth in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over the last 24 rounds.

But it's also intriguing to simply look at his recent form and finishes. While he did have two Top 20 finishes earlier this year in Houston and the AmEx, he's finished T33 at Heritage, T13 at Zurich, and T24 at Myrtle Beach in his last four starts. And overall, he's gained strokes on approach in four of his last five regular stroke-play starts, as well as gaining with the putter in six straight events.

Vilips has danced with the leaderboard at times, and this is a week at TPC Craig Ranch when we've seen plenty of pretty wild results overall. Maybe a win at 180/1 is a bit aggressive, but I do think that Vilips is lined up perfectly for a great finish this week.

Best way to play Vilips: Top 20 incl. ties +300 (BetMGM)

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