The college basketball regular season is almost over and there are only a handful of games left for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble to make an impression on the Selection Committee. If your favorite program is close to the cutline right now, scoring a massive upset over a ranked foe can make all the difference between being in Dayton for the First Four or sitting at home wondering what would have been.
The SEC's bubble teams stepped up in big ways last week with Georgia and Vanderbilt each scoring multiple upsets to improve their chances of getting into the field of 68. Which teams ranked inside of this week's AP Top 25 find themselves in the most danger of getting upset before the start of Champ Week?
Which ranked college basketball teams should be on upset alert in Week 18?
No. 18 Purdue
While most teams want to be heating up as the NCAA Tournament approaches, No. 18 Purdue simply wants to snap out of its recent funk. The Boilermakers' 10-point win over UCLA last Friday snapped a four-game losing streak which has raised some doubts about Purdue's potential longevity in the NCAA Tournament.
While there are some noteworthy highs on Purdue's resume, such as a November win over Alabama, the Boilermakers haven't beaten a top-tier tournament team since taking down Michigan back in January. Things could get dicey for Purdue on Friday night as they wrap up their regular season schedule with a suddenly resurgent Illinois team that has the ability to dominate if they are on their game.
Injuries have been a problem for Illinois over the past few months but they announced their presence in emphatic fashion on Sunday by routing then-No. 15 Michigan by 20 points in Ann Arbor. With their seed sitting somewhere in the 7-9 range right now, the Fighting Illini would love to bolster their NCAA Tournament stock by taking down the Boilermakers.
No. 25 Mississippi State
The collective strength of the SEC has elevated teams in the middle of the pack, who have been given the benefit of the doubt for losing games simply due to how tough the competition is. One of those beneficiaries has been No. 25 Mississippi State, which has gone 6-8 over its past 14 games but is still ranked because all but one of those losses have come against ranked teams.
The Bulldogs are sitting in a tricky spot right now since their ranking makes them a prime target for SEC bubble teams looking to bolster their resume with a key victory but they aren't nearly as strong as the league's heavyweights. Saturday's trip to Fayetteville to take on bubbler Arkansas is fraught with peril for Mississippi State, which will be facing a Razorbacks team in desperation mode after a blowout loss at South Carolina severely damaged their NCAA Tournament hopes.
This week is critical for the Razorbacks, who have a difficult trip to fellow bubbler Vanderbilt before hosting Mississippi State on Saturday. Finding a way to secure at least a split will leave Arkansas in decent position ahead of the SEC Tournament, so expect them to give the Bulldogs everything they can handle at high noon.
No. 2 Duke
There is serious potential for a three-bid ACC this March because no one outside of the league's three ranked teams (No. 2 Duke, No. 11 Clemson and No. 14 Louisville) has done enough work to justify inclusion as an at-large team as of now. The Blue Devils have played a large role in that situation by steamrolling their ACC competition to the tune of an 18-1 league record, with the lone loss coming at Clemson, a fact demonstrated by a 93-60 demolition of Wake Forest on Monday night that all but ended the Demon Deacons' at-large dreams.
Being the unquestioned top dog in the ACC makes the Blue Devils a prime target for teams looking to enhance their resume with a signature win. Saturday's trip to North Carolina fits the bill as the Tar Heels appear to be the ACC's fourth-best team with elite scheduling metrics, but a woeful 1-10 record against Quad 1 teams leaves Hubert Davis' team in desperate need of a signature victory to show that they belong in the field.
The first meeting between these two teams wasn't close as Duke cruised to a 17-point victory that was far more lopsided than the final score indicated. If the Blue Devils take their foot off the gas just a bit here and look ahead to the ACC Tournament, it could open the door for the Tar Heels (who have won five straight entering the week against the ACC's bottom feeders) to stay hot and snag the big win they need to put them on the right side of a very weak bubble.