College Football Playoff bracket: Ole Miss' big win over Georgia may not be enough...

Yesterday was a statement win for Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels. Pretty much from the jump, they went out and beat the brakes off Georgia to improve to 8-2 on the season. Although the Dawgs' College Football Playoff chances did take a hit, the Rebels' are very much alive for the time being. Ole Miss is 8-2 on the season and 5-2 in SEC play heading into a bye week, but will they still make it in?

This is Ole Miss' first true signature victory of the season. The good news for them is their second best win over South Carolina is looking better and better by the week. The Gamecocks are now a bowl team, and have one of the most impressive defenses in the country. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, the Rebels do not have much runway to add to their very borderline playoff resume moving forward.

The only games Ole Miss has left are against two sub-.500 teams in Florida and arch rival Mississippi State. For all intents and purposes, Ole Miss should finish the regular season at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in SEC play. Their two best wins will be over Georgia and South Carolina, while their two losses would be to a bad Kentucky team and a very pedestrian LSU team. Will Ole Miss be good enough to get in?

Before we begin, here is what I feel the College Football Playoff bracket could look like on Tuesday.

1. Oregon Ducks: 10-0 (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns: 8-1 (Projected SEC champion)
3. BYU Cougars: 9-0 (Projected Big 12 champion)
4. SMU Mustangs: 8-1 (Projected ACC champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes: 8-1 (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions: 8-1 (Projected Big Ten at-large)
7. Tennessee Volunteers: 8-1 (Projected SEC runner-up)
8. Indiana Hoosiers: 10-0 (Projected Big Ten at-large)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide: 7-2 (Projected SEC at-large)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 8-1 (Projected national independent at-large)
11. Ole Miss Rebels: 8-2 (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos: 8-1 (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And to make things a little bit more clearer, these would be the first four teams out, in my opinion.

• 13. Miami Hurricanes: 9-1 (Projected ACC runner-up)
• 14. Georgia Bulldogs: 7-2 (SEC)
• 15. Texas A&M Aggies: 7-2 (SEC)
• 16. Colorado Buffaloes: 7-2 (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Let's now unpack what needs to happen for the Rebels to make their first trip to the playoff to date.

Ole Miss gets huge win over Georgia, but still may not make the playoff

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Ole Miss has a 61.2-percent chance of making the playoff. While the percentages suggest it is more likely than not that Ole Miss will get in, the Rebels currently have the 11th-best chance of getting in. 13 teams have better than a 50-percent chance, which should be mathematically impossible, but here we are. Ole Miss is behind Georgia at 73.4 percent...

In order to best unpack this, let's say the SEC is only getting four teams into the playoff this year. That would mean the Big Ten gets four in as well. The ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five champion all get in, as well as Notre Dame. The big question we have to ask ourselves is if Ole Miss can be a top-four team in the SEC at the end of the season. This upcoming week, I do have Ole Miss as the fourth SEC team in.

Right now, there are nine SEC teams technically alive to make the playoff with a 5-percent chance or better of getting in. That would include Missouri and LSU both hanging on by a thread. The next two teams would be South Carolina and Texas A&M who are more alive, and simultaneously less alive, than you would think. I would venture guess they will factor in the equation as well, but will not get in.

And that leaves us with the five real contenders for four spots in the SEC. In order of overall likelihood to get in, we have Texas (82 percent), Alabama (75.6 percent), Tennessee (73.6 percent), Georgia (73.4 percent) and Ole Miss (61.2 percent). Tennessee and Texas each have a conference loss on the season to Arkansas and Georgia, respectively. Texas A&M has two losses, but only one in SEC play.

I would say right now that Texas is the surest thing in the SEC to making the playoff. The Longhorns will get in if they win out, no matter what happens in the SEC Championship. I will say that if they lose to Texas A&M in the Lone Star Showdown, it puts them in serious jeopardy of not getting in because they will be 10-2 (6-2) and without a signature win. Their best win on the season is over ... Vanderbilt.

I would also say barring a collapse down the stretch that Alabama is in, too. The Crimson Tide may have two conference losses, but neither are of the bad variety to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. They have two signature wins over Georgia and now LSU, although both could look worse in the coming weeks. Lastly, I would also say that the winner of Tennessee and Georgia is probably getting in, too.

Right now, I would say that Ole Miss needs to be rooting for Georgia and South Carolina to win the rest of their games, as well as rooting against teams like Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. In essence, Ole Miss is probably not going to be any higher than the third best team in the SEC this season. They need for teams to gradually be crossed off over the next few weeks to help themselves make it in.

The Rebels are probably getting in if the State of Tennessee collectively decides they should get in.