College Football Playoff bracket: Should Texas be left out with a loss to Texas A&M?

For all intents and purposes, Texas should be viewed as a College Football Playoff lock right now. At 10-1 on the season heading into The Lone Star Showdown with Texas A&M, they will be in with a win over the Aggies, regardless of what happens vs. Georgia in their rematch for the SEC Championship in Atlanta. ESPN's FPI has the Longhorns with a 98.1-percent chance of making the playoff right now.

That is the fourth-best mark in the country and the best in the SEC, ahead of Georgia's impressive 90.8-percent chance of getting in. All signs point to Texas, Georgia and Tennessee, who has a 74.7-percent chance of getting in, making the playoff with relative ease. It may only be these three SEC teams this year, but what happens if chalk prevails after this upset: What if Texas A&M beats Texas?

A road loss in College Station to the Aggies would have the Longhorns finishing the regular season at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in SEC play with losses to Georgia at home and to Texas A&M on the road. Georgia would face Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M would have to win to make the playoff, while Georgia is probably safe no matter what, as long as they beat Georgia Tech.

At 10-2 (6-2) with two quality losses but no good wins, would Texas still be in the playoff field then?

Would Texas still make College Football Playoff with a Texas A&M loss?

Let's assume chalk elsewhere. Georgia beats Texas A&M to win the SEC. Oregon beats Ohio State to win the Big Ten. Miami beats SMU to win the ACC. Notre Dame beats USC to finish the year at 11-1. Indiana defeats Purdue to finish the year at 11-1. Penn State beats Maryland to end up with a 11-1 record. Tennessee beats Vanderbilt to finish 10-2. Clemson handles South Carolina to finish 10-2.

Oregon, Georgia and Miami would be your top three seeds. The Big 12 and Group of Five champions will have their teams seeded fourth and 12th, in some order. Now, it comes down to the remaining seven at-large teams. How many would definitively be ranked ahead of Texas? In some order, Indiana, Notre Dame, Penn State and Tennessee would all be comfortably in. That leaves us with three spots.

In this scenario, Ohio State and SMU would be 11-2 as Big Ten and ACC runners up. They would have no bad losses, especially if BYU won the Big 12 or played for its conference title. I would have a hard time putting Texas in over Ohio State and SMU because I don't want to punish someone for having to play an extra game. Besides, Ohio State has two signature wins. SMU vs. Texas would be debated...

The other team to consider in the equation is Clemson. The Tigers' two losses would be to SEC champion Georgia and to a halfway decent Louisville team. Getting the head-to-head over South Carolina would give the Tigers the quality win they would need over Texas to conceivably take their spot. So in actuality, the great debate for the last spot in would have to be between Texas and SMU.

At the end of the day, I think it would come down to how close the game was in Charlotte between victorious Miami and defeated SMU. If it is a blowout, the Texas probably gets in by the skin of its teeth as the No. 11 seed or something. If it is a close game, I hate to say it, Longhorn Nation, but SMU would get in over y'all because again, I don't think the Selection Committee wants to punish like this.

Overall, I think what this exercise goes to show is a Texas loss to Texas A&M puts tremendous focus on what is happening over in the ACC. The ACC is probably getting two teams in now, while the SEC may only get in three. Should Clemson prevail over South Carolina to hand the Gamecocks their fourth loss of the season, that would give the Tigers a better resume over a 10-2 (6-2) Texas team.

The 1.9-percent chance Texas does not make it is involves losing to Texas A&M and chalk prevailing.