Fraud Watch: Which big-name teams are most likely to get embarrassed in College Football Playoff?

Historically speaking, teams making their College Football Playoff debut don’t typically do well. Since the College Football Playoff’s inception, just about every team that made their first appearance was blown out. 

Some of those outcomes were obvious, others they were simply outmatched. Nonetheless, an expanded playoff means there’s more room for teams to get whipped in their debut. Here’s who the frauds of this year’s playoff are. 

4. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1)

As long as James Franklin is coaching at Penn State, the Nittany Lions will always be on fraud alert. Franklin is good at choking in big games and losing games the team has no business losing. Don’t let the one-possession, home loss to Ohio State fool you, the CFP is a different beast. 

Penn State will be afforded a pass in the Big Ten Championship Game, so they’ll nab one of the remaining at large spots. That would pair them with an SEC team, Indiana or Ohio State or even Oregon or possibly Boise State. 

There’s a universe in which Penn State doesn’t beat any of those teams. And I can see Penn State not keeping it close either if they did. Penn State will fall victim to the cycle that first-timers will struggle in the CFP. 

3. Boise State Broncos (9-1)

Boise State is very much in contention to get one of the first-round byes. But even that won’t keep them from avoiding a blowout loss in this year’s College Football Playoff. I’m an advocate for smaller schools getting the chance to sit at the big table. 

But that comes at a cost. If the Broncos are matched against a CFP blue blood like Alabama, Ohio State or even Georgia, it would not go well for them. While all three teams seem beatable on paper right now, they are also teams that know what the stage is in the CFP. 

They aren’t swayed by the big lights and the national stage. Not saying Boise State would be, but experience is key and playoff experience goes a long way in terms of the CFP. 

The Broncos are the least likely to get blown out in my opinion because Ashton Jeanty is so freaking good. And they went toe-to-toe with Oregon at the beginning of the season. But if they face the wrong team at the wrong time, it could get bad out for them. 

2. Miami Hurricanes (9-1)

The Hurricanes showed they aren’t all they’re hyped up to be this year after a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech. They showed they are a streaky team before then, but the loss to Georgia Tech was a gut check in a way. 

It also was a moment for the college football world to pump the brakes on the Miami hype train. They steamrolled Florida in The Swamp at the beginning of the season and that proved to be an ignitor. 

But they’ve since cooled off and that first loss proved when they make their CFP debut, they might be on the hook for an even worse loss. 

1. BYU Cougars (9-1)

BYU was handed a loss to Kansas this past week and are a last-second field goal away from having two losses and being eliminated from the College Football Playoff conversation. They aren’t all they were hyped up to be either. 

If BYU sneaks into the playoff, they will probably suffer an embarrassing loss regardless of who they play. While they started the year 9-0, they haven’t really looked convincing in any of their wins. And the last two weeks, they’ve shown they aren’t quite as good as they are on paper. 

They average just under 400 yards per game on offense and average 31.6 points per game this year. Only Georgia averages fewer points (30.8) and the Cougars average the lowest yards per game total of any CFP team ranked in the top 12 right now. 

Again, games aren’t played on paper, but it usually gives you a good indication of what to expect in a game. We can expect how BYU has looked the last two games to be more like what they’d look like in the CFP.