So you’re telling me there’s a chance?: Worst team in each P4 league who can make CFP

In most machinations of what a 12-team College Football Playoff bracket looks like, you have the usual suspects vying for one of those dozen bids. Over the course of the next few weeks, one by one, many of these fringe contenders will effectively be elliminated from playoff contention. Of the 134 teams competing at the FBS level, 63 are out of it already, with 71 teams still technically in the mix.

I did the heavy lifting earlier today so you won't have to. 42 teams are playing elimination games this weekend. Entering Week 8, there are 29 teams who are still going to be in the playoff hunt no matter what happens this week. With several teams on the brink of elimination facing each other, the number of teams still in the playoff mix will probably be in 50s. I have done enough math today for all involved.

So what I am going to do today is outline what I think could be the worst team who could make the College Football Playoff out of each Power Four league. Whether it be as an automatic qualifier as a conference champion or as one of seven at-large bids, that does not matter in this exercise. It is about seeing the slimmest of pathways in, without getting squeezed off before even having a shot.

Let's start with the ACC, which may only have about four or five teams with any semi-realistic shot in.

ACC

While the Virginia Cavaliers are still technically alive at 0.1 percent, I don't see the Hoos making it in, nor do I see of the other six ACC teams playing playoff elimination games this week getting in. Six teams are already eliminated. You know who you are. So that leaves us with the five who will be alive no matter what after this week: Clemson, Miami, Pittsburgh, SMU and Syracuse. This seems obvious.

We can cross off Clemson and Miami for this exercise because they have either been in or around the top 12 all season long. Simply put, they are too good to be the worst ACC who has a shot at it. SMU has one game left vs. a ranked opponent, and that is at home vs. Pitt in a few weeks. The Mustangs don't have an ACC loss yet, as their only defeat is at home to BYU out of the Big 12 by three points.

So we have arrived at Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Fate woud have it, both teams are on byes this week. That game is going to be electrifying next Thursdsay night. Unfortunately, Syracuse's path in is virtually non-existent. The Orange have to win out, as the home loss to Stanford is proving to be that bad. While Syracuse can upset Pitt on the road next week, the Panthers are the obvious choice here.

If Pitt beats Syracuse and splits with Clemson and SMU, then the Panthers may have a real shot at it.

Worst ACC team who could make the College Football Playoff: Pittsburgh Panthers

Big Ten

Mathematically, the worst team in the Big Ten still alive would be the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at 0.1 percent. Having back-to-back losses in conference play to Nebraska and Wisconsin has them on their playoff deathbed. Of the 18 teams in the Big Ten, seven are already out of it, four are still alive no matter what happens this week, and seven teams are playing for the very playoff lives this weekend.

Of the seven Big Ten teams fighting for their playoff lives this weekend, I don't trust five of them to make it in at all. Those teams would be Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, USC and Wisconsin. Of the four teams still in it no matter what happens this weekend, three are undefeated in Indiana, Oregon and Penn State, and Ohio State's only loss so far is by a point on the road to Oregon from last weekend.

So all four of those teams are very much alive for the playoff. It all comes down to Illinois and Nebraska. Keep in mind that the Illini own the head-to-head over the Huskers from their meeting earlier this year. Both teams are have playoff elimination games this weekend. Nebraska must beat Indiana on the road, while Illinois must defend its home turf vs. Michigan. It has to be Illinois for this.

If both teams somehow finished at 10-2, Illinois gets in over Nebraska because of the head-to-head.

Worst Big Ten team who could make the College Football Playoff: Illinois Fighting Illini

Big 12

The worst team still mathematically alive to make the playoff out of the Big Ten is Arizona at 0.1 percent. I don't see it happening, just like I don't see it for several other teams. Four teams are safe this week and four are eliminated from the playoff all together. Outside of the four that are safe in BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech, I wonder if it could be one of the eight on the block.

Of the eight fighting for their playoff lives, I will cross off six teams for the sake of simplicity. So goodbye, Arizona, Colorado, TCU, UCF, Utah and West Virginia. That leaves us with two very interesting teams playing each other on Saturday afternoon in Arizona State and Cincinnati. The Sun Devils are 5-1 with a loss to Texas Tech. Cincinnati is 4-2 with losses to Texas Tech and to Pittsburgh.

So for that reason, yes, Texas Tech is definitely alive. The Red Raiders are 5-1 overall and 3-0 in Big 12 play. Their only loss was a bad one at Washington State, but the Cougars are 5-1 with their only loss being to Boise State, who just so happens to be 5-1! BYU and Iowa State are undefeated and Kansas State has pedigree with its only loss being a blowout to BYU. Right now, Cincinnati still has its shot.

Only six Big 12 teams feel alive for this with Texas Tech fourth, Arizona State fifth and Cincinnati sixth.

Worst Big 12 team who could make the College Football Playoff: Cincinnati Bearcats

SEC

Kentucky is still mathematically in this at 0.2 percent. Truth be told, all but Auburn and Mississippi State are still mathematically alive in the SEC. I tabbed seven SEC teams who will be alive no matter what after this weekend, including two-loss Ole Miss on a bye week. The Rebels feel very fringe, but I wonder if any of the seven teams taking part in playoff elimination games still have a real shot at it in.

We can cross off Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina easily. While Oklahoma has a pathway in by winning out with its tough schedule, this team is nowhere near tough enough to survive. And for as much as I would love to see Arkansas and Vanderbilt make something magical happen, their early-season losses to Oklahoma State and Georgia State have making the playoff merely a fairytale.

So I guess it will come down to who you trust more between Ole Miss and Missouri. Ole Miss still has a 23.1-percent chance to make it in, while Missouri has a surprising 14.9-percent chance to make it in. The Rebels need to win out, which includes wins over Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia. At 5-1, Missouri will get in if the Tigers win out, but could they get in at 10-2 with a second loss at Alabama?

It is incredibly close, but I would say Missouri's path is far more realistic than Ole Miss' at this point.

Worst SEC team who could make the College Football Playoff: Missouri Tigers

The only thing that is certain is the list of teams who can realistically make it in is going to shrink.