College football rankings — Projected CFP Top 25, bracket: Georgia bests Texas, Oregon tops PSU, Clemson breaks SMU

The start to college football's conference championship weekend may not have been dramatic in the slightest but the finish gave us plenty to think about for the CFP Top 25 and the College Football Playoff bracket set to be released on Sunday, Dec. 8. Penn State and Oregon delivered a thriller in the Big Ten Championship Game, Clemson bested SMU in the waning moments of the ACC Championship Game, and this was all after Georgia and Texas took a thriller to overtime to decide the SEC.

What a weekend, and that's even with Arizona State routing Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, Boise State running away in the rematch against UNLV to win the Mountain West, and so much more to shake up the CFP Top 25 college football rankings.

But who's in, who's out and what happens between Alabama and SMU for the final at-large spot? Let's check out our projections for what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will do on Sunday.

No. 25-21

25. Texas A&M Aggies

Mike Elko and the Aggies saw their CFP hopes go up in flames in the final week of the regular season with a loss to rival Texas. Even still, it was a strong year from Texas A&M and one that feels like should breed optimism moving forward into another season removed from Jimbo Fisher’s toxic effect on the program. As of now, though, the Aggies are projected by Brett McMurphy to finish their season in the Las Vegas Bowl against USC. 

24. Memphis Tigers

While some uncertainty awaited many teams in conference championship weekend, the Memphis Tigers weren’t among them. Ryan Silverfield’s team is already locked in to play West Virginia in the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl. The unfortunate reality moving forward for Memphis, however, might be trying to keep this thing rolling after a stellar 10-2 campaign as their head coach is likely to be a target for at least one or multiple coaching vacancies. 

23. Colorado Buffaloes

It was hard not to wonder on Saturday if Deion Sanders’ Colorado would’ve been a tougher test for Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game. Obviously, the Buffaloes squandered their shot with a loss to Kansas and now appear locked into the Alamo Bowl against fellow Big 12 also-ran BYU. What will be interesting is to see if the Buffs will have Shedeur Sanders or likely Heisman-winner Travis Hunter for that game with April’s NFL Draft looming large for both players.

22. Syracuse Orange

Year one of Fran Brown at Syracuse has to go down as a massive success, including capping off the regular season by ending Miami’s College Football Playoff hopes. While the Orange may have to find a replacement for Kyle McCord after a rollercoaster of a year (albeit a productive one), Brown appears to have this program primed to be a threat among the middle class of the ACC in the coming years. 

21. Illinois Fighting Illini

In case you didn’t know, Bret Bielema is a helluva coach and he proved that fact once again this season with the Fighting Illini. While Illinois may simply not have had the horses to keep up with the likes of Oregon atop the Big Ten, which we saw when the two teams went head-to-head, the program is absolutely in the right hands. They’ll now go into bowl season with the chance to notch an impressive 10-win season. 

20. Iowa State Cyclones

After earning the tiebreaker to get into the Big 12 Championship Game, Iowa State didn’t make good on their shot to get into the College Football Playoff. While Rocco Becht and Co. looked in line to make it a game early, they had precisely no answers for Cam Skattebo on defense. It’s still a 10-win season already for the Cyclones and a successful year but they’d love to end on a high note as they’re likely heading to the Pop-Tarts Bowl to face Miami. 

19. Missouri Tigers

Despite a 9-3 record, this wasn’t the season Missouri fans hoped for entering Week 1. After the 2023 campaign, there were hopes of a potential SEC title run. The Tigers were far from that but it does speak to the health of the program under Eli Drinkwitz that a nine-win regular season goes down as a disappointment, if you want a silver lining. Getting a bowl win to cap things off, though, would really help keep the vibes relatively high going into the offseason. 

18. Army Black Knights

There were people who seriously doubted Army in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane, thinking the Black Knights hadn’t played anyone. Jokes on them! Behind Bryson Daily and a stout defensive effort, Army didn’t just win the American in its first season in the conference but they dominated the Green Wave to do so. While the Army-Navy game still looms, this Black Knights team would likely earn a CFP bid in most normal years out of the Group of 5. 

17. BYU Cougars

Tiebreakers can also be heartbreakers and BYU knows that better than most after last week. By the time they reached the locker room at halftime of their regular-season finale, the Cougars were only determining whether it’d be Colorado or Iowa State playing for the Big 12 title against ASU. Still, the emergence of Jake Retzlaff and the run BYU went on can’t be ignored and hopes should be high for the immediate future in Provo. 

16. Clemson Tigers

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Clemson looked right at home in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. Despite backdooring into the title bout thanks to Miami’s loss, the Tigers took full advantage of the opportunity at hand and seemed like they might throttle newcomer SMU. The Mustangs made things quite sweaty, however, for Dabo Swinney and his team with a furious second-half comeback, tying the game 31-31 with just seconds remaining. But Cade Klubnik played Superman to get the Tigers in field goal range and Nolan Hauser got it done with the 56-yard game-winner. Now, it's Playoff time for Clemson.

No. 15-11

15. South Carolina Gamecocks

Until the day I die (or the day I forget about what happened this season), I’ll maintain that South Carolina is the three-loss SEC team I’d put into the College Football Playoff with an at-large berth. That’s not the case, though, which the Selection Committee made clear after the final week of the regular season. Even still, with how LaNorris Sellers emerged as a viable star for the Gamecocks, this program is going to get a lot of preseason love in 2025. 

14. Ole Miss Rebels

Lane Kiffin, Jaxson Dart and the entirety of the Ole Miss program have to be kicking themselves with how the end of the season transpired. With only two games left in the regular season, the Rebels were quite clearly presented with a win-and-in situation for the CFP. Instead, they forgot to do the first part against Florida and were left firmly on the outside looking in. It’s hard to not still believe in Kiffin’s ability and what Ole Miss has ahead but it’s a tough end to a season where the investment was fully behind the Rebs. 

13. Arizona State Sun Devils

There truly might be no stopping Kenny Dillingham and the Arizona State Sun Devils right now, at least in a pre-College Football Playoff world. Cam Skattebo may have punched his ticket to the Heisman Trophy ceremony with another dominant effort as he helped lead the way, even without Jordan Tyson, to a blowout win over Iowa State to capture the Big 12 title. Clemson’s win over SMU in the ACC title game, meanwhile, does the Sun Devils a huge favor, likely earning ASU a first-round bye in the CFP as the No. 4 seed. 

12. Miami Hurricanes

Despite numerous escape-artist maneuvers and one slip-up against Georgia Tech, Miami still controlled its own destiny going on the road to Syracuse a week ago. Then the ultimate letdown came with a loss that took the Canes out of the ACC Championship Game and out of the CFP. They’ll still have a chance at 11 wins in the bowl game but that will likely be without Cam Ward if he opts out for the NFL Draft. And speaking of that, what Mario Cristobal does to replace his QB will be a fascinating subplot of the offseason.

11. SMU Mustangs

If I were the one creating the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, SMU would be in the field. Unfortunately, that's not the case. So despite a spirited effort where they stormed back from an awful start to tie it late but then losing on a walk-off field goal, the cynic in me says that the committee is going to give the nod to Alabama. I don't believe that's fair or the right call. But the logo on the helmet matters more than fans will ever care to admit. But huge shouts to Kevin Jennings and Rhett Lashlee — y'all deserve better than what Selection Sunday will give you.

No. 10-6

10. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama got what it needed, namely in the form of an SMU loss. Again, I don't think that means that the Crimson Tide, a three-loss team with two losses to fringe bowl teams, deserve to be in. But when you have that white A on the side of the helmet, that's going to trump most everything. Plus, it doesn't hurt Alabama's case that one of their signature wins is over the now-SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs. But I'd almost put my house on Bama being the final at-large bid over SMU.

9. Boise State Broncos

Make no mistake, Boise State really made us think about if the Broncos, even with Ashton Jeanty, could make it through the Mountain West Championship Game still in line for the Playoff berth. But they did and then left no doubt in the rematch with UNLV. While it may have only been a 21-7 final score, Jeanty ran amok once again while the defense came up with one timely stop after another. It was the right time for the defense to wake back up and, now, the Broncos not only should get a bye but should get a Top 3 seed in the CFP. What a world.

8. Indiana Hoosiers

It’s certainly difficult to wash the taste of Ohio State’s domination of Indiana out of your mouth with how thoroughly the Hoosiers were out-classed and out-gunned in that matchup. But 11-1 is 11-1 and Indiana certainly did enough in the rest of their light schedule to get into the CFP, especially with how the rest of the field around them fell by the wayside when they did not. Even still, Curt Cignetti’s team will have to find some answers for the athletes that Indiana is destined to see in the postseason if they don’t want to be one-and-done. 

7. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee, in my estimation, represents the biggest wild card that was essentially locked into the CFP bracket with no game on conference championship weekend. We know that the Vols defense is good enough to cause jus about any team issues. The offense, however, has been wildly inconsistent, especially throughout SEC play. Yet, Nico Iamaleava started to really come on strong at the end of the year and, if that progression continues, the combination of Josh Heupel’s offense with this newfound defensive dominance could be a dangerous Playoff recipe.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Honestly, James Franklin and Penn State deserve their flowers for how they performed in the Big Ten Championship Game. Early on, it looked like things could start to snowball for the Nittany Lions as Oregon jumped out to an early lead but they fought hard and the offense caused the Ducks real problems. 

Ultimately, it wasn’t enough and Oregon ended up pulling away enough to keep them at arm’s length. Still, it’s a promising sign for Penn State and the possibility of this team finally getting over some sort of hump and possibly going on a run in the Playoff. 

No. 5-1

5. Texas Longhorns

Texas remains entirely baffling and Saturday’s overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game is fully indicative of exactly that. The Longhorns defense was downright dominant at times and did more than enough to win the conference title in the program’s first season in the league. Yet, Quinn Ewers and the offense were just sloppy enough to not allow that, not to mention some questionable play calling as well. 

When you look at this roster, the makings of a team that can win a national title are there. But you have to start wondering if the risk of inexperience with Arch Manning combined with his upside outweighs the obvious shortcomings of Ewers. 

4. Ohio State Buckeyes

It would feel disingenuous to say that the vibes around Ohio State were high coming into this week. Even with the disastrous loss to Michigan a week ago, the Buckeyes were still locked into the College Football Playoff. However, not vying for a first-round bye or a Big Ten title stung more than the good of the situation could withstand. 

Ryan Day and his team could very well still win a national championship. This is one of the most talented rosters in the country. At the same time, though, you’d be hard-pressed to find many fans in and around Columbus who believe that Day is the guy to get that job done at this point.

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

No team had to feel as good as Notre Dame during conference championship weekend. While there was so much on the line regarding seeding and Playoff livelihood, the 11-1 Irish were firmly entrenched in the CFP field and all but locked into hosting a first-round game. With how things have shaken out now, too, Marcus Freeman’s team is likely to host the No. 12 seed which, in theory, should be advantageous for them as they’ll be in South Bend.

2. Georgia Bulldogs

What a gutsy effort from Georgia, man. Despite losing Carson Beck right before halftime and while trailing 6-3 against Texas, the Dawgs fought back behind Gunner Stockton and got to overtime. It didn’t take eight extra frames in this matchup, though, as Trevor Etienne played hero to punch in the winning score — even after Stockton was knocked out after a massive hit and a one-armed Beck had to come into the game. 

Kirby Smart’s team has weathered the storm as well as anyone this season against a ridiculously daunting schedule. Now with a second win over Texas, they should vault firmly up to the No. 2 seed and that same spot in the Top 25 rankings. 

1. Oregon Ducks

There was certainly a contingent of college football fans who believed that Oregon was about to boat-race Penn State to take the Big Ten title. And they looked quite correct early on in Indianapolis as the Nittany Lions appeared to have no real answers for the Ducks on either side of the ball. 

Those tides quickly turned, however, as Penn State found an extra gear and actually got Dan Lanning's team on its heels late in this game. But all credit to Oregon. With PSU driving with a chance to tie it up in the fourth quarter, the Ducks came up with the big splash defensive play they needed, allowing them to ice the game and secure a 13-0 run into the Playoff.

Projected College Football Playoff bracket after conference championship week

With these projected CFP Top 25 rankings, here's what we're projecting for the official College Football Playoff bracket.

Alabama, as mentioned, sneaks into the field over SMU, who is left as the first team out of the College Football Playoff, despite losing just one regular-season game and making the ACC title bout. But this sets up some intriguing matchups, which I also cynically believe the committee will most definitely try to do in order to remove some rematch potential like Ohio State hosting Indiana again.

But in the end, it'll certainly be appointment television to watch Ohio State host Alabama or Penn State host Tennessee, or even to see if the Hoosiers can upset Texas. And even though we're familiar with the Clemson-Notre Dame matchup, it's always a heated battle that should be even bigger with stakes this large for the 12-team CFP.