Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 13

As rivalry week looms after Thanksgiving and Black Friday to end the regular season, it feels like a bevy of upset alerts are percolating for college football Week 13. Sure, there are several games with way more ramifications than we expected — not the least of which are Indiana-Ohio State and Army-Notre Dame — but some other games could find their way into our college football upset picks even if we didn't expect it.

But let's be honest, the biggest upset alert candidate and the game demanding the most eyes is, without a doubt, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have far more talent than Indiana and the Hoosiers are largely untested after facing a weak schedule. Could magic keep coming for Curt Cignetti's team, though? Everyone will have eyes on The Shoe with the thought of an upset in mind.

We won't have BYU on upset alert again this week, though — not because the Cougars are safe but because they're actually road underdogs at Arizona State! The same is true for Army-Notre Dame because, well, we saw what the Irish did to Navy. So which teams do make the cut for our Week 13 college football picks? Let's get into the goods.

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2024 Upset Picks Record: 19-36

5. Penn State Nittany Lions

Opponent: at Minnesota | Time: Saturday, Nov. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: PSU -11.5

This spot might become the weekly "Cody definitely doesn't believe in this being the most dangerous upset spot but that means it'll probably be extremely close" spot for our upset picks. Last week, Texas was here and I thought they'd blow out Arkansas. Not the case. So as I look at Penn State, a team I trust almost inherently to handle business in spots like this under James Franklin, it's hard not to think that the Golden Gophers may give them a run for their money.

Minnesota has gotten steadily better throughout the season and are quietly already 6-4 on the season. A big reason for their progression has been the singular progression of quarterback Max Brosmer, whose play has bolstered an already solid defense. We've seen the Nittany Lions offense be a bit unreliable or inconsistent and Brosmer could make them pay if they aren't able to put up a big number.

Again, this is a spot I'd typically be all over Penn State to cover the spread and get out of dodge. At the same time, though, it feels like the Nittany Lions this year more so than others could get caught. This week with the game being at Minnesota and with P.J. Fleck's team making such notable strides seems like an obvious spot where that could happen.

4. Colorado Buffaloes

Opponent: at Kansas | Time: Saturday, Nov. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: ND -14.5

Kansas has been on a path of destruction in the Big 12 Championship Game race over the past few weeks. Lance Leipold's Jayhawks got the best of Iowa State to put the Cyclones on the outside looking in but followed that up with handing BYU its first loss. So it's fitting that Colorado now goes on the road to face these Jayhawks at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday now that they're in the driver's seat for the conference title game.

To be sure, the Buffaloes have been trending in the opposite, better direction than Iowa State and BYU were coming into their matchups. However, Kansas has leveled up of late since getting healthy. Colorado's defense is improved but Leipold could have plenty dialed up with the two-headed monster of a rushing attack with Devin Neal and Jalon Daniels. This one could definitely be high-scoring.

More importantly, while Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado offense have the ability to attack the Kansas secondary, the Jayhawks have been highly opportunistic. One mistake could flip a high-scoring affair on its head and, with the Buffs away from home, the upset run for KU could absolutely stay alive.

3. Texas A&M Aggies

Opponent: at Auburn | Time: Saturday, Nov. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: TAMU -2.5

I'll be completely honest, I didn't have this game on my radar initially as a potential upset pick — then I saw the line. You're telling me that a Texas A&M team still in line to play in the SEC Championship Game is only a 2.5-point favorite on the road against an Auburn team that's likely not making a bowl game? Even at Jordan-Hare, that seems to go counter to what we should logically think about these two teams.

But the oddsmakers always know something when a line looks this way, so we're rolling with it 100%. The one thing I'm coming away with, though, is that we might not be looking at what the Aggies have done this season. Texas A&M's signature win right now is... LSU? A team outside the Top 25 now that seems quite flawed. Maybe it's Mizzou but it's still not all that impressive of a resumé.

Throw in the fact that A&M could be looking ahead, understandably, to their renewed rivalry date with Texas next week and you can see how a not-good-but-frisky Auburn team could potentially cause some chaos in Week 13. This isn't to say I have a ton of faith in Hugh Freeze's team or Payton Thorne because I don't. I'm just looking at what the number and situation tells me, and they tell me an upset is quite possible here.

2. Ole Miss Rebels

Opponent: at Florida | Time: Saturday, Nov. 23, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: MISS -10.5

Speaking of what I just said about LSU, there's a chance that we might be overrating, at least slightly, both what Florida did last week against the Bayou Bengals in addition to potentially how close Ole Miss was to beating the Tigers. So where does that leave us as the Rebels now come off the bye and head down to The Swamp?

Logically, I think that the ceiling for Ole Miss is now much closer to being reached than it was in that matchup with LSU. That's specifically the case when you consider how dominant the Rebels defensive front has been, something that could potentially create some poor decisions from D.J. Lagway. And yet, the Florida defense played extremely well last week and could muck this thing up, especially at home.

This is another I'm not necessarily saying with my chest but Billy Napier undeniably has Florida playing with belief and, frankly, much better. If Ole Miss isn't locked in coming off the bye in a tough environment, it's not impossible that they could get clipped at the worst possible time for their College Football Playoff livelihood.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Opponent: vs. 5 Indiana | Time: Saturday, Nov. 23, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: OSU -11.5

I understand that Ohio State has better players than Indiana. The Buckeyes boast one of the best rosters in the country. I understand that this game is Columbus and we watched the Hoosiers turtle up a bit against Michigan, a far worse team, in the Big House. I understand that it's been 36 years since Indiana has beaten Ohio State.

You know what else we didn't see coming? Indiana being 10-0, the best start in program history. We didn't see the Hoosiers having a great shot at making the College Football Playoff. So who's to say that the next step in this magical run isn't knocking off the Buckeyes?

If you want football reasons, Indiana has been one of the better pass rushes and run defenses in the country, largely because of their pressure packages and play in the trenches. They now get to face OSU in their first game without center Seth McLaughlin and depleted at tackle as well. There's a world wherein the Buckeyes struggle to get into a rhythm offensively. And while Indiana will likely be inconsistent offensively in their own right, we could still have a tight, low-scoring affair.

Maybe it's a hot take but, in that type of game, I'm taking the coach I trust more. I still don't trust Ryan Day in the big games and think Curt Cignetti has proven time and again he's built to have his team fully prepared to shock the world. So it's not likely, sure. But there's a chance — and that's all Indiana needs to pull off this upset.