Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 10

Where, oh where, have our college football upsets gone? There were some close calls a week ago but, last week, no AP Top 25 ranked favorite on upset alert or otherwise lost. That, obviously, wasn't great for our season-long upset picks record. But at the end of the day, we move on and Week 10's college football upset picks feel quite a bit more likely to happen.

Ohio State and Penn State is the headliner for Week 10, without question, in a game that's loaded with College Football Playoff and Big Ten implications — and the Buckeyes being favored in Happy Valley makes for an easy upset pick. That's less so the case, however, with some games we left out of this week's upset alert column, whether that's Ole Miss on the road at Arkansas, Oregon visiting Michigan, Florida-Georgia in the Cocktail Party or even Kansas State on the road at Houston.

The fact that those games didn't make the cut shows just how ripe some of this week's matchups are for upset alerts, though. So we see the Red Flags flying on the horizon throughout the country, and these are our college football upset picks in Week 10.

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2024 Upset Picks Record: 13-27

5. SMU Mustangs

Opponent: 18 Pitt | Time: Saturday, Nov. 2, 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network) | Spread: SMU -7.5

If you told me that you had undefeated Pitt visiting one-loss (but undefeated in the ACC) SMU in Week 10, I'll call you a liar. Both of these teams have been among the bigger surprises in college football this season but now have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff and perhaps a conference championship.

Unfortunately, this high-profile ACC matchup has some injury concerns. Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein and SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings are both questionable for this game. Even if that wasn't the case, though, the sneaky part of this game is that I actually think this could be a defensive struggle more so than an offensive showcase. With backup QBs in the game, that becomes an even more likely outcome.

In such a game with unpolished quarterback play, though, the favorite is always going to be susceptible to an upset. Pat Narduzzi's Pitt team has been finding new ways to win time and again this season, so perhaps we see it come to fruition again in a game that could be unappealing visually but will have big-time postseason implications.

4. Miami Hurricanes

Opponent: Duke | Time: Saturday, Nov. 2, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: MIA -20.5

Just looking on paper, the Miami Hurricanes shouldn't have much of a problem at home against Duke. While the Blue Devils have been far friskier than a lot of people imagined coming into the year, most recently nearly beating SMU a week ago, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with the undefeated Canes. And yet...

Duke head coach Manny Diaz was the victim of a raw deal when he was the head coach at Miami, leading to his ousting. He's landed on his feet again, though, and now with the Blue Devils, he has a real opportunity to exact some revenge in this one. Sometimes, revenge games can be overblown. However, with Diaz's coaching ability and a roster that has shown the ability to put some scares into teams, I'm not ruling it out.

Let's not forget that Miami isn't immune to getting scared. Look at the Virginia Tech game, the Cal game, and even moments in the Louisville game. This team is extremely good but they haven't been perfect, especially on defense. So if Diaz is able to dial up some pressure and scheme that limits Cam Ward and the Canes offense, The U could end up standing for "The Upset Alert" by the end of Saturday.

3. Indiana Hoosiers

Opponent: at Michigan State | Time: Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock) | Spread: IND -7.5

I didn't feel it in my heart last week when I stretched myself to put the still-unbeaten Indiana Hoosiers on upset alert and Curt Cignetti's team certainly made me look foolish for doing so with a great effort behind backup quarterback Tayven Jackson to get past Washington. But the tests won't stop coming for this team, especially as they now head from Bloomington to East Lansing to face rival Michigan State for the Old Brass Spittoon (yes, that's a real thing).

Make no mistake, Jonathan Smith's Spartans have their share of issues. I've described Michigan State as perhaps the highest-variance team in the country. But the inherent aspect of that is Sparty can compete with just about anyone at their best but lose to almost anyone at their worst. So what happens if Indiana gets the best of Aidan Chiles, the best of this MSU defense and all in from of a raucous home crowd for Michigan State?

It could be trouble for Indiana as Kurtis Rourke returns under center from injury. This team has dominated so much that they've not trailed this season. If they get in that spot catching the Spartans' best shot while on the road, the zero in the loss column could absolutely be in jeopardy of coming down for the Hoosiers in upset fashion.

2. Texas A&M Aggies

Opponent: at South Carolina | Time: Saturday, Nov. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TAMU -3.5

Everyone, myself included, was quick to crown the Texas A&M Aggies after a QB switch from Conner Weigman to Marcel Reed sparked a massive second-half comeback and blowout against LSU. And to be sure, Mike Elko's team deserves those flowers in addition to being considered in prime position to make the College Football Playoff. But a loss this week at South Carolina could change that calculus, and it's in the cards.

For starters, playing in Columbia for a night game the week after that emotional LSU victory is just a tough spot on the schedule for A&M. That will make things difficult in itself. However, my bigger concern for this game is how the Gamecocks stack up with the Aggies. LaNoris Sellers and the offense have their issues but, at the same time, the Gamecocks defense might be the best the Aggies have seen since Notre Dame.

South Carolina will be better-prepared for Reed and the QB run game than LSU was and has the better dudes on the defense to slow that down. And with the homefield advantage and Sandstorm blasting at Williams-Brice Stadium, this could be a letdown spot that leaves Texas A&M back searching for answers.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Opponent: at 3 Penn State | Time: Saturday, Nov. 2, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: OSU -3.5

Much has been made about James Franklin's shortcomings while at Penn State in terms of his team's performances in the biggest games on the schedule. And sure, a 3-17 mark against Top 10 teams is not at all what you want if you're a Nittany Lions fan. But let's also not forget that Ryan Day Ohio State i oly 8-8 against Top 10 teams but also 2-7 against Top 5 teams — and 1-7 while ranked as a Top 4 team themselves.

For me, the pressure is on both of these coaches to get the job done. But what we've seen from these teams of late suggests that this is Penn State's best shot in a long time. The Drew Allar injury is a point of concern but the signs are there that he'll play with an offense that is far better equipped to attack the Buckeyes than it has been. More importantly, Ohio State's offensive line is compromised without Josh Simmons and the Nittany Lions have the defensive front to exploit that weakness.

I have a hard time imagining a blowout in either direction. Penn State is far from perfect but I do feel they match up well enough with Ohio State in this matchup, especially with the game in Happy Valley, for James Franklin to finally get that signature win and have a runway right into the Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff by pulling off the upset win.