Cowboys playoff scenarios: How Dallas can keep dream alive in Week 16

After winning 12 games in three consecutive seasons, the Dallas Cowboys finally fell apart during the 2024 campaign.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones — the NFC South’s Woody Johnson — largely neglected the team in the offseason that followed the team’s NFC Wild Card round loss against the Green Bay Packers in February.

As the Cowboys remained dormant, the rest of the league picked up all of the team’s quality free agents. The Cowboys managed to sign quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, but it was one year too late. Dallas waited until the last second to sign both of those All-Pro players, which allowed them to hold the team hostage in negotiations.

The questionable decision-making in the offseason was compounded by a slew of injuries that have ravaged the Cowboys throughout the season. Along with Prescott, many of the key defensive pieces players on Dallas’ roster have suffered season-ending injuries. In many ways, it’s miraculous that Dallas has managed to remain in playoff contention at this stage of the season.

Cowboys path to playoffs is improbable

The Cowboys hold a 6-8 record, which gives them less than a one percent chance of making the postseason, per NFL Next Gen Stats. A victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday would be the first of many things Dallas would need in order to make it. 

With just three games remaining in the regular season, the Cowboys only hope of sneaking into the playoffs would be through the No. 7 seed. The final NFC Wild Card spot is currently held by the Washington Commanders. Any chance the Cowboys have of making the postseason would begin with them winning their three remaining games and the Commanders losing all three of the remaining games.

That’s not all. Dallas is currently the No. 12 seed in the NFC, and climbing to No. 7 would require surpassing four other teams along with Washington. The Seattle Seahawks hold a two-game lead, the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals hold a one-game lead and the San Francisco 49ers are ahead of Dallas due to tiebreakers.

Unfortunately, the Commanders play the Falcons, and Dallas needs the Commanders to lose. Since Atlanta owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, Dallas would need the Falcons to win out and take the NFC South division. That would knock down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who Dallas could win a head-to-head tiebreaker against on Sunday. Dallas would also need the Buccaneers to lose at least one more game after this weekend for the tiebreaker to kick in. 

Then, the Niners and Cardinals would have to lose one game each, and either the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks would need to lose two games. In the end, all of the aforementioned teams would finish with a 9-8 record, leaving Dallas with the No. 7 seed.

After that? Head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Cooper Rush would have to battle through three rounds of the NFC playoffs before defeating the AFC champion in Super Bowl LIX. Book your flights, Cowboys fans!