The Chicago Cubs are among the best teams in MLB, thanks in large part to an offense that is as potent and as deep as anyone's. Their pitching, however, is suspect: Their bullpen could use some work, and their rotation is in rough shape, mostly due to injury. For the Cubs to be considered one of the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series, they'll need a dream trade deadline to bolster their pitching. A collapse from the Arizona Diamondbacks would go a long way in that regard.
The Diamondbacks, like Chicago, entered the year hoping to go on a long postseason run. Instead, they enter Tuesday's action with a 32-34 record. Sure, there's still time for them to turn their season around, but with Corbin Burnes out for the year and their team already underperforming, it's hard to expect much, especially given how tough the NL West is.
Assuming the Diamondbacks are out of contention by the time the deadline rolls around, they should have several intriguing trade candidates including Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, both of whom would be among the best starters available.
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Diamondbacks collapse can gift Cubs ideal trade deadline
As mentioned above, injuries have made the starting rotation a glaring need for the Cubs. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad are all sidelined with injuries, forcing the Cubs to rely heavily on guys like Cade Horton, Colin Rea and Ben Brown. Both Imanaga and Assad are expected to return at some point, and the trio of Horton, Rea and Brown have exceeded expectations, but who in this rotation do the Cubs realistically trust in October?
Imanaga is an easy one, and veterans Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are probably good enough to start a postseason game. But with Steele out, is there a fourth option right now that Cubs fans are comfortable with? Probably not. That's where Gallen and Kelly, two pitchers on expiring contracts, come in.
Gallen has had a down year, but has finished in the top five of the NL Cy Young balloting twice since 2022. Perhaps a change of scenery will do wonders for him. Kelly isn't nearly as big of a name, but he has a 3.18 ERA in 14 starts this season, and he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his outings. With this Cubs offense backing him, that'll play.
There's a good chance that Gallen and Kelly would be the best pitchers available if the Diamondbacks do decide to sell. If they are free for the taking, the Cubs should be all over it, and should have a good shot of getting a deal done given their strong farm system.
Cubs should have upper hand over most contenders in trade discussions
What makes this Cubs team so exciting is that, in addition to a really good MLB team, they have an outstanding farm system. Matt Shaw isn't going anywhere, and neither is Horton, but from Owen Caissie to Moises Ballesteros to Kevin Alcantara, the Cubs have a slew of high-end prospects close to being MLB-ready that they don't even have room for on their roster currently.
Most contenders trying to make a splash simply don't have the assets Chicago does. If Jed Hoyer is willing to trade what it takes, the Cubs can make at least one impactful addition and greatly improve their World Series odds.
A trip to the Fall Classic might hinge on Hoyer making an uncomfortable move, and the uncomfortable move might become less uncomfortable if the Diamondbacks fall out of the postseason race.