After trading away Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs and losing Alex Bregman to the Boston Red Sox in free agency, the Houston Astros entered spring training this year in desperate need of a spark. The AL's preeminent dynasty seemed to be trending in the wrong direction, and with two stars out the door — and potentially another to follow, as Framber Valdez enters his final season of team control — things could get worse before they get better.
And then Cam Smith showed up. The primary return in the Tucker deal, the third baseman was a very well-regarded prospect, but his inexperience (only five games of experience above A-ball after being taken 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft) had fans tempering their short-term expectations. His play so far this spring, however, has taken those expectations into the stratosphere: Smith is currently slashing an eye-watering .409/.519/.773 with two homers in 10 games, looking every bit the part of a future star who can help lead Houston into a new era of contention.
He's been so good, in fact, that the Astros are starting to plan for that new era to begin as soon as Opening Day. Isaac Paredes is occupying third base at the moment, but Houston has started giving Smith some time in the outfield, suggesting that they want to find a way to have him with the Major League club as soon as possible.
Which is understandable, on the surface: Smith sure seems like a future star, with a bat that will shine no matter where you put him on the diamond, and Houston is in desperate need of more outfield help if it wants to make another World Series run in 2025. The incumbent options don't offer much inspiration, so why not call up the kid who looks ready right now?
But it turns out that question has a pretty easy answer.
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Astros shouldn't overreact to Cam Smith's blistering spring training
Go back and read that stat line again: We're talking about 10 games, here. And those 10 games have come in spring training, where the competition level is notoriously difficult to parse between organizational fodder and established vets just looking to knock the rust off.
According to Baseball-Reference, Smith's Opposition Quality metric comes out to 6.7, or just a notch below Double-A competition. Which isn't to try and make it seem any less impressive: Smith hits the cover off the ball, and he's one of the best prospects in baseball for a reason. It's just to say that all of the things we didn't know about Smith entering camp ... well, we still don't really know them yet.
The Astros are still looking to win in the short-term, and an outfield picture relying heavily on Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. But Smith is learning right field on the fly, on top of what figures to be a steep learning curve as he gets his first real taste of big-league pitching. That's asking a whole lot of someone who just turned 22 years old last month, and it risks setting his development back.
And for what, exactly? Houston still projects to be a competitive team to start this season, especially in a pretty weak AL West division. Why not rely on Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz, Paredes and the rest of a solid lineup to hold down the fort, while Smith starts the season in Double-A or Triple-A and shows what he can do? If McCormick keeps struggling and you want to bring him up in the middle of the summer, there will still be plenty of time, and it's unlikely to be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.
The downside of rushing him, meanwhile, is immense, as baseball history is littered with top prospects who had too much put on their plate too soon.