David Montgomery injury opens door for Jahmyr Gibbs: Lions update and fantasy replacements

Detroit Lions Running Back David Montgomery injured his knee in the team's loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. After a long day of speculation on Monday, Adam Schefter gave us the official update:

Montgomery personifies everything this Lions team is about. Toughness, brute force, and results. Going back to last year Montgomery is one of two running backs in the NFL with 25 rushing touchdowns and at least 1,500 yards rushing. The other is Derrick Henry. This year Montgomery, among 36 running backs with at least 100 carries, is tied for second in touchdowns (12), fifth in success rate (55.1 percent), and eighth in first downs gained (50).

The former Chicago Bear is one-half of the rushing duo in Detroit along with former first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs. The duo live by the nicknames "Sonic" and "Knuckles" which highlight the true "Thunder and Lightning" nature to their partnership. Montgomery brings the power as the short-yardage and between-the-tackles runner, while Gibbs is the electric, lightning in a bottle player.

What this means for Jahmyr Gibbs

Montgomery going down could mean a bigger workload for Gibbs. Allowing the first-round pick to really shine as more of a three-down back. Of the 36 running backs with 100 or more carries, Gibbs is one of 12 players with over 900 yards rushing, and he's the only one of those players with less than 200 attempts. Gibbs is tied for third in the league in yards-per-rush-attempt at 4.6. He's one of six players with 1,000 rushing yards and has 39 fewer attempts than the next closest player on that list.

All this is to say that Gibbs is a highly efficient runner. And he's been doing it on a very consistent basis this year. He has already surpassed his rush attempts number from last year but has a higher yards-per-attempt and success rate this year.

This bodes well moving forward, as the Lions get closer to postseason play, they should be able to rely on Gibbs to have a positive impact while taking a larger workload. The narrative of Gibbs taking a larger role, and what he could do with it on the big stage, could also mean a lot for Gibbs going into next season - after which he'll be extension-eligible.

What are some questions?

The first question is what will the Lions do near the goal line for scoring opportunities? Montgomery is tied for first in the NFL in rush attempts in goal-to-go situations (29). However, Gibbs has been highly effective in those situations as well. While he's just 21st in those attempts he's first in success rate, eighth in EPA-per-rush, and tied for fifth in touchdowns. Among the 10 players with seven or more touchdowns in these goal-to-go situations, only one player has a higher touchdown-to-attempt ratio, and that's Josh Allen.

The next question was about running between the tackles. We know Gibbs isn't just a "bounce it outside" runner, but how effective is he running up the middle? Turns out — extremely. Gibbs is 26th in rush attempts between the tackles (Montgomery was 21st) but he's third in total EPA gained on these runs. Behind Allen and Jalen Hurts. He's also tied for eighth in success rate.

And finally, how about versus stacked boxes (eight or more defenders at or near the line of scrimmage)? Montgomery was 11th in the league in such attempts while Gibbs is 26th. But it turns out Gibbs is great at this too. He's seventh in the league in success rate against a stacked box, and ninth in EPA.

On a per-snap basis, Gibbs is a highly effective runner in everything the Lions could want him to do. With now likely increased volume we should see Gibbs have success in these key areas.

Fantasy Implications

Since we are in the thick of fantasy playoffs, let's try to figure out some replacements for Montgomery. As the 12th overall running back in most formats/rankings losing Montgomery probably has a big impact on a large number of rosters still in the hunt for a championship.

Browns RB Jerome Ford - Running Back Nick Chubb broke his left foot in Sunday's game against the Chiefs. Ford went on to have seven carries for 84 yards and one touchdown for 17+ fantasy points.

Bills RB Ty Johnson - Johnson had his second straight double-digit outing against the Lions on Sunday with five catches for 114 yards. This was after a two catch, 55-yard, one touchdown performace the week before.

Lions RB Craig Reynolds - Reynolds is third on the Lions running back depth chart. He hasn't gotten much work on offense this year, but as a bigger back (216 pounds) there's a chance Detroit puts him in some of the Montgomery situations.