What a Devin Booker-Rockets trade would actually look like if Suns implode

The Phoenix Suns are a veteran team that has pushed in all its chips to be a title contender, sporting the league’s highest payroll and some of the most well-known names in the sport. They also do not control their own draft picks until the 2031 draft, leaving them bereft of equitable assets and without a clear path to pivoting direction. The team is pot committed to its core after assembling the talented trio of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal over the course of 2022 and 2023, but they went out with barely a whimper in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, getting swept at the hands of Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

This was the team’s first season with their trio of stars, which was marred by injuries to Beal and apparent erosion of faith in head coach Frank Vogel. This season, armed with a new coaching staff, additional ball handlers and more time together to improve on-court chemistry, there is optimism around the team regarding their chances at contending this season.

But what if they continue to struggle? The Suns are still undersized, have a rather low ceiling on the defensive end and improvement with new coaching is still only theoretical. Is there a disaster scenario where one or more of the Big Three see the writing on the wall and want to get out before even darker days arrive? What about the front office going into panic mode about recouping value for their players before it’s too late?

Enter the Houston Rockets, a young team on the rise overflowing with young talent and an eye on taking the next step after a 19-win improvement last season, just missing out on the Play-In Tournament. The Rockets made a calculated move this offseason when they completed a trade with the Brooklyn Nets to swap around some draft rights machinations. This essentially ended up with the Rockets controlling the Suns’ draft picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029.

While they could just keep the picks and hope for some good fortune (the Suns aren’t getting any younger or cheaper), the more ambitious approach is using these picks to entice the Suns to give up one of their stars. Should calamity strike in Phoenix, this would offer an interesting way out of the predicament of having no easy way to rebuild. Houston has been looking to make a splash and Devin Booker would be a fantastic target.

This reality would have to be pretty dramatic, likely including the departure of Kevin Durant (and potentially others) as well. In many ways, it would be equal parts rash and pragmatic to move on from Booker in the event of an implosion, as he is a beloved face of the franchise while also holding by far the most trade value of anyone on the roster.

Devin Booker is one of the best players in the world, in his prime and locked into a multi-year contract. The Rockets, meanwhile, are a fascinating trade team bursting with valuable trade assets, leaving a multitude of possibilities for a deal like this. Let's dive into one of the many options.

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A Devin Booker-to-Houston trade if the Suns implode:

Booker’s contributions to a team aren’t usually too hard to see. The guy is an elite shotmaker with some amazing playoff performances and a Finals run under his belt. He juices his team’s offense like few others in the league, having ranked 93rd percentile or better in points per possession on/off differential in seven of the last eight seasons, according to Cleaning the Glass.

One of the things that makes him so hard to guard is his ability to make the shots that are most difficult for defenses to take away. He has ranked top five in points per game on pull-up shooting in each of the last three seasons, finishing second only to Luke Doncic last season per NBA.com. He also converted these shots at a 46 percent rate (fifth among 80 players who scored 200 points this way), showing he does it at a high volume and with efficiency. Midrange jumpers in general are shots that teams are usually willing to live with and Booker is easily one of the top performers around in this area. He doesn’t need a lot of daylight on these shots and will make defenses pay with even a peek at the rim.

Booker is also an elite scorer out of the pick-and-roll. As a pick-and-roll ball handler last season, he scored 1.06 points per possession, ranking 93rd percentile while carrying a significant workload, per NBA.com. This is an area where the Rockets like to operate (11th in frequency last season). Running this action with Alperen Sengun, who is much more of an offensive threat than any big man Booker has paired with before, would likely lead to even more success.

Booker's playmaking is another area where he has improved by leaps and bounds over the course of his career, having become one of the best passers among off-guards in the league. This figures to jive pretty well with Reed Sheppard. Sheppard will likely have significant ball-handling duties as he matures, but having a backcourt partner like Booker who can operate on the ball allows him more opportunity to leverage his dangerous off-ball shooting. The potential of a fully realized Sheppard, Booker and Sengun together on the offensive end could be absolutely lethal.

There are a handful of No. 1 options that can maintain their production at the highest levels in the playoffs a bit better than Booker, who can be slowed down some by the most physically imposing defenders at times; however, he showed in his 2021 NBA Finals run that with the right circumstances and pieces around him, he can take his team right up to the summit.

The team maintains good defensive personnel in Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet and Tari Eason to flank him in this scenario, while also keeping many additional assets to use in other deals as needed. With head coach Ime Udoka having instilled a defensive identity with this team upon his arrival last season, it stands to reason that Booker can lock in and be a contributor to a successful defense, especially if he isn't being tasked with tailing the opponents' best player every night.

The best-case scenario for the Rockets here is likely to include Jalen Green, as he has tough restricted free-agency negotiations coming up (unless he’s extended before then). He also becomes redundant with Booker, making it difficult to justify paying big money on his next contract. Since he's not included in this iteration of a deal, he could very likely be dealt elsewhere for a good return, perhaps including someone to replace Jabari Smith Jr., who is the biggest contributor from last season moved out here.

Having started to dig into the treasure trove, the Rockets would be unlikely to be done maneuvering. There are still draft picks, young players and tradeable salary available to find an additional championship-level piece or two if they hit the accelerator like this. Alternatively, Booker is still young enough for them to take it slow and wait for the right move to come along while also developing their remaining young talent.

What's in it for the Suns?

Things would undoubtedly start with the return of the Suns draft picks owned by Houston. While they still would not hold their own picks outright in 2026 and 2028, having them for three of the next five drafts would go a long way in providing flexibility to remake the roster while mitigating some downside risk of being at the bottom of the standings without their picks. They even get one extra Rockets pick here for their trouble.

The Suns, even at their best, have struggled to put lineups on the floor with above-average size and athleticism over the last decade or so. Jabari Smith Jr. is a 21-year-old forward with good size, shooting potential and defensive versatility. He could stand to improve his shot diet by cutting down on midrange jumpers but shot 45 percent on corner 3s while increasing his volume from his rookie year. He also ranked 70th percentile in defending pick-and-roll ball handlers last season while scoring in the 72nd percentile on spot-ups per NBA.com, which are very encouraging signs when projecting a 3-and-D cog for the future.

Smith Jr. doesn’t necessarily project to be a high-end offensive creator, but he played big minutes for a top-10 defense last year and has significant upside yet to be realized. Being an elite role player with above-average positional size is a real possibility for him in the future and he’s already shown the ability to contribute positively to a team in the playoff hunt.

To boost the athleticism quotient even further, Amen Thompson is a scintillating prospect who can be moved around to almost any position on the floor and has the speed, leaping ability and quickness that make even NBA athletes jealous. This kid gets anywhere he wants to go in a flash and creates havoc on both sides of the floor. On defense, he finished in the top 10 in the league in deflections per 36 minutes (3.6) as a rookie and logged three stocks (steals plus blocks) per 36 minutes as well.

On the offensive end, he uses his amazing physical gifts to get to the rim at will, having ranked 100th percentile in rim shooting frequency among wings per Cleaning the Glass, where he converted at a 67 percent rate (69th percentile). This was done as a rookie who was still learning the game and has no jump shot to speak of right now. He also can’t be kept off the glass, ranking 100th percentile for wings on both ends of the court in this area last season.

The outside shot is a problem, no doubt. It’s tough to build a lineup around guys at his size who are such poor shooters. He also happens to do almost everything else on the court at a high level. He is a terror in the open court and is even a plus playmaker at the wing. Who knows, he might even become a lead ball handler one day. That shooting does significantly increase his downside risk as a prospect, which is part of the reason why he’s made available by Houston here, but with his enthralling amalgamation of skills, he’d be such an interesting building block for Phoenix to work into their plans.

The other players received are expiring salary filler who help reduce payroll after the season, while there is an immediate payroll reduction for this season in this deal as well ($6-7 million), providing a big chunk of luxury tax savings. One could argue that an additional piece from Houston like Eason, Brooks, Cam Whitmore or a draft pick might even be warranted, due to the high-risk potential of Thompson.

In reality, the chances of the Suns punting on their core this year are just this side of zero; the team likes where they’re at. But if the unthinkable were to happen, these two teams would be natural trade partners.